Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems PDF
Preview Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems CABI CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES Climate change is a major environmental challenge to the world today, with signifi cant threats to ecosystems, food security, water resources and economic stability overall. In order to understand and research ways to alleviate the eff ects of climate change, scientists need access to information that not only provides an overview of and background to the fi eld, but also keeps them up to date with the latest research fi ndings. Th is series addresses many topics relating to climate change, including strategies to de- velop sustainable systems that minimize impact on climate and/or mitigate the eff ects of human activity on climate change. Coverage will encompass all areas of environmental and agricultural sciences. Aimed at researchers, upper level students and policy makers, titles in the series provide international coverage of topics related to climate change, including both a synthesis of facts and discussions of future research perspectives and possible solutions. Titles Available 1. Climate Change and Crop Production Edited by Matthew P. Reynolds 2. Crop Stress Management and Global Climate Change Edited by José L. Araus and Gustavo A. Slafer 3. Temperature Adaptation in a Changing Climate: Nature at Risk Edited by Kenneth B. Storey and Karen K. Tanino 4. Plant Genetic Resources and Climate Change Edited by Michael Jackson, Brian Ford-Lloyd and Martin Parry Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems Edited by Jürg Fuhrer Agroscope, Zurich, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland Peter J. Gregory East Malling Research, Kent, and School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, UK CABI is a trading name of CAB International CABI CABI Nosworthy Way 38 Chauncy Street Wallingford Suite 1002 Oxfordshire OX10 8DE Boston, MA 02111 UK USA Tel: +44 (0)1491 832111 T: +1 800 552 3083 (toll free) Fax: +44 (0)1491 833508 T: +1 617 395 4051 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.cabi.org © CAB International 2014. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronically, mechanically, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owners. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library, London, UK. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems / edited by Jürg Fuhrer, Peter J. Gregory. pages cm. -- (CABI climate change series ; 5) ISBN 978-1-78064-289-5 (hbk : alk. paper) 1. Crops and climate. 2. Climatic changes. 3. Agricultural systems. I. Fuhrer, Jürg. II. Gregory, P. J. III. C.A.B. International. IV. Series: CABI climate change series ; 5. S600.7.C54C659 2014 630.2'515--dc23 2014011559 ISBN-13: 978 1 78064 289 5 Commissioning editor: Vicki Bonham Editorial assistant: Emma McCann Production editor: Simon Hill Typeset by Columns XML Ltd., Reading Printed and bound in the UK by CPI Group. Contents Contributors vii Foreword xi Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems – Introduction 1 Jürg Fuhrer and Peter J. Gregory 1 Climate Projections for 2050 7 Markku Rummukainen 2 Rainfed Intensive Crop Systems 17 Jørgen E. Olesen 3 Climate Sensitivity of Intensive Rice–Wheat Systems in Tropical Asia: Focus on the Indo-Gangetic Plains 31 Anil Kumar Singh and Himanshu Pathak 4 Climate Change Challenges for Low-Input Cropping and Grazing Systems – Australia 47 Steven Crimp, Mark Howden, Chris Stokes, Serena Schroeter and Brian Keating 5 Diversity in Organic and Agroecological Farming Systems for Mitigation of Climate Change Impact, with Examples from Latin America 69 Walter A.H. Rossing, Pablo Modernel and Pablo A. Tittonell 6 UK Fruit and Vegetable Production – Impacts of Climate Change and Opportunities for Adaptation 88 Rosemary Collier and Mark A. Else 7 Intensive Livestock Systems for Dairy Cows 110 Robert J. Collier, Laun W. Hall and John F. Smith 8 Climate Change and Integrated Crop–Livestock Systems in Temperate-Humid Regions of North and South America: Mitigation and Adaptation 124 Alan J. Franzluebbers v vi Contents 9 Land Managed for Multiple Services 140 Richard Aspinall 10 Adaptation of Mixed Crop–Livestock Systems in Asia 155 Fujiang Hou 11 Enhancing Climate Resilience of Cropping Systems 167 Heidi Webber, Helena Kahiluoto, Reimund Rötter and Frank Ewert 12 Shaping Sustainable Intensive Production Systems: Improved Crops and Cropping Systems in the Developing World 186 Clare Stirling, Jon Hellin, Jill Cairns, Elan Silverblatt-Buser, Tadele Tefera, Henry Ngugi, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Kindie Tesfaye, Uran Chung, Kai Sonder, Rachael A. Cox, Nele Verhulst, Bram Govaerts, Phillip Alderman and Matthew Reynolds 13 Th e Role of Modelling in Adapting and Building the Climate Resilience of Cropping Systems 204 Helena Kahiluoto, Reimund Rötter, Heidi Webber and Frank Ewert 14 Agroforestry Solutions for Buff ering Climate Variability and Adapting to Change 216 Meine van Noordwijk, Jules Bayala, Kurniatun Hairiah, Betha Lusiana, Catherine Muthuri, Ni’matul Khasanah and Rachmat Mulia 15 Channelling the Future? Th e Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Climate Adaptation 233 Lauren Rickards, Mark Howden and Steve Crimp 16 Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: New Approaches to Knowledge and Learning 253 Julie Ingram 17 What are the Factors that Dictate the Choice of Coping Strategies for Extreme Climate Events? Th e Case of Farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia 271 Temesgen Tadesse Deressa Index 281 Contributors Phillip Alderman, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Richard Aspinall, James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Jules Bayala, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected] Jill Cairns, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), PO Box MP 163, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe. E-mail: [email protected] Uran Chung, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Robert J. Collier, University of Arizona, Department of Animal Science, Shantz Building 236, PO Box 210038, Tucson, AZ 85721-0038, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Rosemary Collier, Warwick Crop Centre, School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Wellesbourne, Warwick CV35 9EF, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Rachael A. Cox, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Steven Crimp, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Temesgen Tadesse Deressa, Guest Scholar, Africa Growth Initiative, Global Economy and Development, Brookings Institute, 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Mark A. Else, East Malling Research, New Road, East Malling, Kent ME19 6BJ, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Frank Ewert, University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Crop Science Group, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. E-mail: [email protected] Alan J. Franzluebbers, USDA – Agricultural Research Service, 3218 Williams Hall, NCSU Campus, Box 7619, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Jürg Fuhrer, Climate Group/Air Pollution, Agroscope, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH-8046 Zurich, Switzerland, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. E-mail: juerg.fuhrer@agroscope. admin.ch vii viii Contributors Sika Gbegbelegbe, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CRAF House, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri PO Box 1041, Village Market-00621, Nairobi, Kenya. E-mail: [email protected] Bram Govaerts, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Peter J. Gregory, East Malling Research, New Road, East Malling, Kent, ME19 6BJ, and School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AR, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Kurniatun Hairiah, Brawijaya University, Jl. Veteran, Malang 65145, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected] Laun W. Hall, University of Arizona, Department of Animal Science, Shantz Building 236, PO Box 210038, Tucson, AZ 85721-0038, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Jon Hellin, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Fujiang Hou, State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystem, China College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730020, Gansu, China. E-mail: cyhoufj @lzu.edu.cn Mark Howden, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Julie Ingram, Countryside and Community Research Institute, University of Gloucestershire, Gloucester, Gloucestershire, GL2 9HW, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Helena Kahiluoto, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research, Lönnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland. E-mail: [email protected] Brian Keating, CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Ni’matul Khasanah, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected] Betha Lusiana, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected] Pablo Modernel, Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, 6700 AN Wageningen, Th e Netherlands, and Facultad Agronomía, Universidad de la República, CP 12900, Montevideo, Uruguay. E-mail: pablo.modernelhristoff @wur.nl Rachmat Mulia, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected] Catherine Muthuri, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected] Henry Ngugi, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Jørgen E. Olesen, Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark. E-mail: [email protected] Himanshu Pathak, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110 012, India. E-mail: hpathak.iari@ gmail.com Matthew Reynolds, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Lauren Rickards, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne, Southern Annex, Ground Floor Alice Hoy Building (Blg 162) Monash Road, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Walter A.H. Rossing, Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, 6700 AN Wageningen, Th e Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected] Reimund Rötter, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research, Lönnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland. E-mail: [email protected] Contributors ix Markku Rummukainen, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, Sölvegatan 37, SE-223 63 Lund, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected] Serena Schroeter, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Highett VIC 3190, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Elan Silverblatt-Buser, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Anil Kumar Singh, RVS Agricultural University, Gwalior 474 002, India. E-mail: aksingh. [email protected] John F. Smith (deceased), University of Arizona, Department of Animal Science, Shantz Building 236, PO Box 210038, Tucson, AZ 85721-0038, USA. Kai Sonder, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Clare Stirling, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Ynys Mon, Wales, LL74 8NS, UK, E-mail: [email protected] Chris Stokes, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences, Aitkenvale QLD 4814, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Tadele Tefera, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CRAF House, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri PO Box 1041, Village Market-00621, Nairobi, Kenya. E-mail: [email protected] Kindie Tesfaye, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), PO Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. E-mail: [email protected] Pablo A. Tittonell, Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, 6700 AN Wageningen, Th e Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected] Meine van Noordwijk, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), JL. CIFOR, Situ Gede, PO Box 161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia. E-mail: [email protected] Nele Verhulst, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, DF, Mexico. E-mail: [email protected] Heidi Webber, University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Crop Science Group, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]
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