Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa

417 Pages·2013·7.182 MB·English

by  Mannava V. K. Sivakumar, Alex C. Ruane, Jose Camacho (auth.), Mannava V.K. Sivakumar, Rattan Lal, Ramasamy Selvaraju, Ibrahim Hamdan (eds.)

Mannava V.K. Sivakumar · Rattan Lal
Ramasamy Selvaraju · Ibrahim Hamdan
Editors
Climate Change
and Food
Security in
West Asia and
North Africa
Climate Change and Food Security
in West Asia and North Africa

Mannava V.K. Sivakumar (cid:129) Rattan Lal
Ramasamy Selvaraju (cid:129) Ibrahim Hamdan
Editors
Climate Change and Food
Security in West Asia
and North Africa
Editors
Mannava V.K. Sivakumar Rattan Lal
Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch Carbon Management
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Sequestration Center
Geneva , Switzerland School of Environment
and Natural Resources
Ramasamy Selvaraju The Ohio State University
Climate, Energy and Tenure Division (NRC) Columbus , OH , USA
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations (FAO) Ibrahim Hamdan
Rome , Italy Association of Agricultural Research
Institutions in the Near East
and North Africa (AARINENA),
c/o ICARDA
Amman , Jordan
ISBN 978-94-007-6750-8 ISBN 978-94-007-6751-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-6751-5
Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg New York London
Library of Congress Control Number: 2013945430
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Foreword
The West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region has fragile ecosystems in semi-
arid and arid areas facing challenging issues of absolute water scarcity, drought,
land degradation and desertifi cation. In addition to these, the region also has to deal
with other issues including a signifi cant increase in population, poverty, a geo-polit-
ically fragile environment, gender imbalance, weak investment in agricultural
research for development and constraints in human resources and institutional
capacities. As a result of all these factors, the WANA region is one of the largest
food-defi cit regions in the world.
Agriculture is the primary source of revenue and livelihood for a signifi cant pop-
ulation in many countries in the region. The major climatic factors that affect crop
yield stability in the WANA region are inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall vari-
ability and temperature extremes. The risks associated with extreme climate events
are already posing a number of threats to agriculture and livestock enterprise in the
region. Many negative impacts of climate variability on freshwater systems in the
region have been observed in recent times. According to the Fourth Assessment
Report released in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
which is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), future projections of climate
change indicate that the WANA region is expected to become warmer and drier with
reduced crop productivity. The region is already a large net importer of grains and
in the future it will become increasingly dependent on food imports, worsening the
regional food security situation. Areas with high rates of population growth and
natural resource degradation are likely to continue to have high rates of food
insecurity.
To cope with climate variability and change more effectively in the WANA
region, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and mitigation options for a
range of agroecosystems so as to enable a favourable policy environment for the
implementation of these options. There is an urgent need to integrate climate change
concerns into the establishment of unifi ed national frameworks and the enhance-
ment of cross-sectoral coordination. In addition to strengthening enabling policies,
the decision support systems need to be enhanced at the institutional level. Regional
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vi Foreword
cooperation in data collection, exchange of information and monitoring and assess-
ment of impacts of climate change are other key activities. These are also in agree-
ment with the priorities identifi ed under Agriculture and Food Security, which is
one of the priority sectors of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS),
established in 2009 by the World Climate Conference-3.
It is against this background that the WMO, the Association of Agricultural
Research Institutions in the Near East and North Africa (AARINENA) and the Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, organized the
International Conference on Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in
West Asia and North Africa in Kuwait City, Kuwait, from 13 to 16 November 2011.
The Conference was co-sponsored by the International Center for Agricultural
Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), the Ohio State University (OSU), the Kuwait
Institute for Scientifi c Research (KISR), the Meteorological Department of the
State of Kuwait, the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR) and the
European Union (EU). The Conference in its fi nal declaration identifi ed several key
recommendations, knowledge gaps and opportunities for policy makers, researchers
and extension systems, international organizations and NGOs to implement pro-
grams designed to minimize short- and long-term vulnerability of the WANA region
to climate change.
We wish to convey our sincere thanks to Dr. Naji Al Mutari, Director General,
Kuwait Institute for Scientifi c Research (KISR), and all his colleagues for their
excellent cooperation in providing conference facilities, making local arrangements
and ensuring the full success of this Conference.
Several papers presented in the Conference are brought together in this book and
we are sure that this volume will serve as a signifi cant source of information to all
agencies and organizations interested in the subject of climate change and food
security and in promoting effective adaptation strategies to cope with climate change
in the WANA region.
Secretary General, WMO Michel Jarraud
Director General, FAO José Graziano da Silva
President, AARINENA Faisal Awawdeh
Preface
The countries of West Asia and North Africa (WANA) have long had the challenge
of providing sustainable livelihoods for their populations in the fragile ecosystems
of semi-arid and arid areas. The region is facing the challenging issues of absolute
water scarcity, drought, land degradation, and desertifi cation. In addition to these,
the region also has to deal with other issues including a signifi cant increase in popu-
lation, poverty, a geo-politically fragile environment, gender imbalance, weak
investment in agricultural research for development, and constraints in human
resources and institutional capacities.
Climate change is already a reality in WANA and it places additional constraints
on the already fragile ecosystems of dry areas and limited natural resources in
WANA. A striking example of the potential impacts is the Nile delta with six million
people, which will be directly affected by sea level rise. Hence there is an urgency
to develop, and strengthen further, research and technology transfer on adaptation,
mitigation, and production system resilience.
The Fourth Assessment Report of the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) released in 2007, suggested several adaptation strategies to
deal with projected climatic changes which include changing crop varieties; enhancing
more effi cient water use; appropriate scheduling of cropping activities; adoption of
more effective pest, disease, and weed management practices and insurance; and
making better use of seasonal climate forecasts to reduce production risks.
A comprehensive and integrated approach to planning and implementing the
climate change adaptation strategies across the wide range of agro-ecosystems in
different countries in WANA could help both the planners and the local communities
to deal effectively with the projected impacts and also contribute to overall sustain-
ability of agricultural production systems.
Therefore, an international conference entitled “Adaptation to Climate Change
and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa” was organized in Kuwait City,
Kuwait, from 13 to 16 November 2011. The Conference was jointly sponsored by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Association of Agricultural
Research Institutions in the Near East and North Africa (AARINENA), the Food
Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Center for Agricultural Research
vii
viii Preface
in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), the Ohio State University (OSU), the Kuwait Institute
for Scientifi c Research (KISR), the Meteorological Department of the State of
Kuwait, the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), and the European
Union (EU).
The specifi c objectives of the Conference were:
(cid:129) To provide a better understanding and assessment of the climate change impacts
on agriculture and the associated vulnerability in the WANA region
(cid:129) To discuss and make informed decisions on practical adaptation strategies for the
agricultural sector in the WANA region
(cid:129) To discuss and suggest the appropriate ways to promote adaptation planning and
implementation and it’s integration into the sustainable development planning in
different countries in the WANA region
(cid:129) To develop a Regional Adaptation Framework for continuous information exchange
on climate change impacts and adaptation amongst the different countries in the
WANA region
The Conference was attended by around 80 participants from 18 countries and
nine international and regional organizations and institutions. The Conference was
opened by Mr. Ahmad Al-Mulaifi , Minister of Education and Higher Education and
Chairman, Kuwait Institute for Scientifi c Research (KISR) Board of Trustees and
Representative of His Highness The Amir of the State of Kuwait, and closed by
Dr. Naji Al Mutari, Director General, Kuwait Institute for Scientifi c Research (KISR).
All presentations were organized into seven technical sessions. Twenty-three
papers submitted for the conference proceedings were reviewed and revised for
publication in this volume.
The editors thank all of the authors for their outstanding contributions to this
volume. We hope that the strategies presented by the authors for climate change
adaptation and food security in the WANA region would lead to the development of
new policies to help better adapt agriculture production systems and enhance food
security in WANA.
We wish to convey our sincere thanks to the staff of Springer Verlag for their
excellent cooperation in bringing out this volume.
Switzerland Mannava V. K. Sivakumar
USA Rattan Lal
Italy Ramasamy Selvaraju
Jordan Ibrahim Hamdan
Contents
Part I Climate Change in West Asia and North Africa
1 Climate Change in the West Asia and North Africa Region ............... 3
Mannava V.K. Sivakumar, Alex C. Ruane, and Jose Camacho
2 Implications of Climate Change for Agriculture and Food
Security in the Western Asia and Northern Africa Region ................. 27
Ramasamy Selvaraju
Part II Climate Change and Environment
3 Climate Change and Soil Quality in the WANA Region ..................... 55
Rattan Lal
4 Conserving Green and Blue Water in the WANA Region ................... 75
Hamed Daly-Hassen, Yves Birot, Carlos Gracia, and Marc Palahi
5 Climate Change and Land Use in the WANA Region
with a Specifi c Reference to Morocco ................................................... 89
Mostafa Ibrahim and Rattan Lal
6 Responses of Insect Pests to Climate Change:
Effects and Interactions of Temperature, CO , and Soil Quality ....... 115
2
Vanessa L. Muilenburg and Daniel A. Herms
7 Climate Change and Locusts in the WANA Region ............................. 131
Keith Cressman
ix