Climate Change and Extreme Events

238 Pages·2021·5.987 MB·English

by  Ali Fares

Climate Change and
Extreme Events
Climate Change and
Extreme Events
Edited by
Ali Fares
College ofAgriculture and Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M
University, Prairie View, TX, United States
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Contributors
Vidya Anderson
Climate Lab,Department ofPhysical & EnvironmentalSciences, University of Toronto
Scarborough,Toronto,ON, Canada
Ripendra Awal
Collegeof Agricultureand Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, PrairieView, TX,
UnitedStates
MarkAnthony Ayure-Inga Agana
University ofArkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States
BilalM. Ayyub
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Director ofthe Center for Technology and
Systems Management,University ofMaryland, College Park, MD, United States
PhilipB.Bedient
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Rice University, Houston, TX,UnitedStates
Normand E.Bergeron
InstitutNationalde laRecherche Scientifique,Centre Eau Terre Environnement;Centre
Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur le Saumon Atlantique,Qu(cid:1)ebec City, QC, Canada
UditBhatia
Indian Instituteof TechnologyGandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India
ClaudineBoyer
InstitutNationalde laRecherche Scientifique,Centre Eau Terre Environnement,Qu(cid:1)ebec City,
QC, Canada
DanielCaissie
Fisheries and OceansCanada,Moncton,NB, Canada
Romney B.Duffey
Private,Idaho Falls, ID, United States
Zheng N. Fang
Civil Engineering, The University ofTexas atArlington,Arlington, TX,UnitedStates
Ali Fares
Collegeof Agricultureand Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, PrairieView, TX,
UnitedStates
AndrewJ. Felton
Department of Wildland Resources and The Ecology Center,Utah State University, Logan, UT,
UnitedStates
Vittorio (Victor)A. Gensini
Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, United States
xi
xii Contributors
William A. Gough
ClimateLab;Department ofPhysical & Environmental Sciences, University ofToronto
Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada
Hamideh Habibi
College ofAgriculture and Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX,
United States
Asif Ishtiaque
Schoolfor Environment and Sustainability, University ofMichigan, Ann Arbor, MI,United States
NishantKamboj
Indian Institute ofTechnologyGandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India
ShahzaibKhan
Indian Institute ofTechnologyGandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India
Tu Dam NgocLe
FacultyofArchitecture, MienTrung University ofCivilEngineering, Tuy Hoa, Phu Yen, Vietnam
Dongfeng Li
Civil Engineering, The University ofTexas atArlington,Arlington,TX, United States
Taha B.M.J. Ouarda
InstitutNationaldelaRechercheScientifique,CentreEauTerreEnvironnement,Qu(cid:1)ebecCity,QC,
Canada
Andr(cid:1)e St-Hilaire
Institut National de laRechercheScientifique,CentreEau Terre Environnement; Centre
Interuniversitairede Recherche sur leSaumon Atlantique,Qu(cid:1)ebecCity, QC, Canada
Yating Zhang
Center for Technologyand Systems Management,University of Maryland,College Park, MD,
Unites States
Enrico Zio
Energy Department, Politecnico diMilano, Milano, Italy; MINEParisTech, PSL Research
University,CRC,SophiaAntipolis,France;EminentScholar,DepartmentofNuclearEngineering,
College ofEngineering, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic ofKorea
CHAPTER
1
Extreme events and climate change:
A multidisciplinary approach
Ali Fares,Hamideh Habibi,and Ripendra Awal
CollegeofAgricultureandHumanSciences,PrairieViewA&MUniversity,PrairieView,TX,UnitedStates
Introduction
An event can be identified as an extreme (weather or climate) when the weather or climate variable
exceeds a threshold, close to the upper or lower ends of the usual range over a predefined duration
(Seneviratne et al., 2012). Many studies showed that frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration,
and timing of heavy-to-extreme events have increased across the world, which could be because of
globalwarming(Norouzietal.,2019;Stott,2016;Booetal.,2006).Globalwarming/climatechange
effectshaveacceleratedinrecentdecades(SheffieldandWood,2011).AccordingtotheUSNational
Climate Assessment, over the past 50 years, the number and strength of weather-related natural
catastrophes,suchasmajorhurricanes,heatwaves,floods,droughts,andtorrentialdownpours,have
increased inthe United States (http://www.c2es.org/content/national-climate-assessment/).
As a result of increasing greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources (Solomon et al., 2007),
significanttrendshavebeenobservedinmaximumandminimumtemperatureextremesinmanyareas
acrosstheworld,whichcausefewercolddaysandnightsandmorewarmdaysandnights(HeimJr,
2015).Safeeqetal.(2013)analyzedtrendsinobservedtemperatureduring1969–2007ontheisland
ofOahu,Hawaii,toevaluatethe spatial andtemporalvariabilityaswell asquantify the relationship
betweenlocaltemperatureandregionalclimateindices.Theirresultsrevealedthatdespitethesubstan-
tialspatialandtemporalvariabilityinthetemperaturetrendsontheisland,therewasa0.17°C/decade
islandwide minimum temperature increase during the four decades of their study period. The comp-
lexity of the issue of climate change and extreme events (Fares et al., 2014; Habibi and Seo, 2018)
requires an interdisciplinary approach to help understand the difficulty of the problem and also to
theinterconnectivitybetweenclimatechangeandextremeevents.Thisbookusesamultidisciplinary
approachinaddressingextremeeventsunderachangingclimatebasedonanin-depthanalysisofpast
andcurrentconditionsaswellasfutureoutlooks.Inaddition,itdiscussestherelationshipbetweencli-
mate change and extreme events and their impact on several aspects of human daily activities and
manifestations.
1
ClimateChangeandExtremeEvents.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822700-8.00019-6
Copyright#2021ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.
2 CHAPTER 1 Extreme events and climate change
Overview of the chapters
Thebookcomprises12chapters;afterthefirstchapter,therestaregroupedintothreecomplementing
sections.Thefirstsectionaddressestemperaturesandsevereconvectivestorms;thesecondsectionof
the book contains chapters related to hydrological responses that give an overview of the current
knowledgeandfutureoutlookoftherespectivetopics.Thethirdsectionofthebookcoversmitigation,
adaptationmeasures,andgovernance.Thissectiondiscussesthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange
andextremeeventsonecosystemresponses,lifelineinfrastructures,greeninfrastructure,andsea-level
rise. It also reports on how governance and policies are dealing with climate change and extreme
events.
Weather parameters
Thissectioncoversthreechapters.Chapter2,TemperatureExtremesinaChangingClimate,coversthe
pastandprojectedhottemperatureextremesandtheirexpectedsocialandenvironmentalimpacts.Sur-
facetemperatureandtheoccurrencesofhotextremeshavebeenincreasingsincethepreindustrialtimes
(almost140yearsago),whichcouldbetheconsequenceofglobalwarming(Seneviratneetal.,2012;
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2013). An in-depth overview of observed
changes in temperature and its impact are discussed in the first part of the chapter. The indices and
metrics commonlyused forevaluatingandpredictingthechangesintemperatureextremes followed
bytheobservationaldatacollectionandanalysisarepresented.Differentregionalandglobalclimate
models,aswellasintegratedanddownscalingtechniques,areoneofthemaincomponentsofunder-
standingthefuture/projectedtemperatureconditionoftheearth.Thesemodelsandtechniquesaredis-
cussedindetailinthesecondpartofthechapter.ThelastpartofChapter2givesusanoverview of
mitigationandadaptationstrategies(e.g.,reducinggreenhousegasemissionsandincreasingtheresil-
ienceofinfrastructureandcriticalbuildings)appliedacrosstheUnitedStates.Themethodsforeval-
uationandoptimizationofthesestrategiesareintroduced,whichhelpgovernmentsandstakeholders
develop and implementthe best climateadaptations and resiliency measures.
Changesinglobalairtemperatureaffectdailytemperaturesofsurfacewaterbodiessuchaslakes,
streams,andriversthroughouttheyear.Oneofthevitalclimateelementsofaquaticecosystems(e.g.,
rivers,oceans,andseas)isthewatertemperaturebecauseitinfluencesmostprocessesaffectingwater
quality,biologicalactivities,andmarinelives,forexample,fish,insects,zooplankton,andphytoplank-
ton(Dallas,2009).Thetemperatureofsurfacewaterbodiesdeterminestheorganismsthatcantolerate
suchtemperatureandthriveinsuchfreshwatersystems.Chapter3givesanin-depthoverviewofthe
mainphysicalprocessesthatdefineextremetemperaturesinthecontextofpotentialchangesresulting
fromclimatechangebecauseoftheirpotentialimpactondecreasingaquaticspecies’growthanddis-
tributions.Detailedinformationabouttemperatureextremes,theirtrends,physicalprocesses,andhow
climatechange may impact these processes are discussedin thischapter.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the frequency and strength of torrential downpours;
thesetrendsarepredictedtocontinueastheearthgetswarmer(Brooks,2013);consequently,itisnec-
essarytounderstandtheimpactsofclimatechangeonseverethunderstormsandtornadoes,especially
thosethatproducelargehailanddamagingstraightwinds.Chapter4,SevereConvectiveStormsina
ChangingClimate,summarizesthecurrentknowledgeonthistopic,someofthecriticalquestionsthat
still need answers, and research opportunities in this area. The first part of the chapter contains a
Overview of the chapters 3
concisesummaryofthepresentknowledgeonthetopicfollowedbyasectionexplainingtheconducive
settings that induce such occurrences and their documented changeability. The following section
covers the significant large-scale drivers of these events and their relations to climate variability.
Thechapteralsoincludesadiscussiononclimateteleconnections(e.g.,ElNinoSouthernOscillation),
whicharerecognizedfortheirinfluenceontheglobalweatherpatternsandextremeweather.Inthelast
part of the chapter, the author discusses the latest research examining severe convective storms and
theirrelationstoclimatechange,withexplicitattentiontotheconvection-permittingdynamicaldown-
scalingmethodology.Furthermore,theauthorhighlightssomeofthecutting-edgeresearchnecessary
toincreasetheabilitytopredictsuchevents,lessentheirenvironmentalimpacts,andminimizetheir
harmfuland adverseeffects on human lives andresources.
Hydrological responses
Chapter5discussesthepatterns,mechanisms,anduncertaintiesintheresponseofterrestrialnetpri-
maryproductivitytoprecipitationextremes.Anin-depthoverviewofprojectedandobservedincreases
inprecipitationextremesandtheirlinkstoanthropogenic-drivenatmosphericwarmingaregiveninthe
introduction sectionofthe chapter.Thegoalsofthechapter andtheoutlineofitsremainingcontent
mark the last part of the chapter’s introduction section. The following section enumerates some key
examplesoftheimpactsthatprecipitationextremeshaveonecological,social,andeconomicsystems.
Thehistoryofresearchandconceptualthoughtsonprecipitationextremeswithinecologyarethendis-
cussed.Thewovenwithinhistoryisthestandingdebateaboutwhatisan“extreme”event.Patternsand
mechanisms ofecosystem responses toprecipitation extremes, with emphasison their temporal var-
iability,arepresentedinthemiddlesectionsofthechapter.Currentandfutureresearchneedsofforests,
savannas,grasslands,deserts,andotherecosystems,includinghuman-managedecosystems,weredis-
cussedinthelastsectionbeforethesummaryofthechapter.Thechaptersummaryhasanoverviewand
key takeaways, knowledge gaps, and pathwayson how tomove forward.
FloodEarlyWarningSystems(FWS)underChangingClimateandExtremeEventsisthetitleofthe
secondchapterofthehydrologicalresponsessectionofthebook.Itfocusesonsomeofthecurrentflood
warningsystemsoperatingintheUnitedStatesandintroducesthebasicconceptsofaneffectiveflood
warningsystem,includingrainfallmonitoringsystems.Thechapterdiscussesthemaincomponentsof
a typical FWS, including (1) rain gauge networks and their operation platform and (2) a remotely
sensedrainfallthatencompassesradarsystemssuchasNext-GenerationWeatherRadar(NEXRAD)
andsatellitesystemssuchasTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission,theGlobalPrecipitationMeasure-
ment mission, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites mission. Hydrological
modeling is the next important component of the FWS; it uses data of rainfall and other parameters
toinitiatefloodwarningsandestimationoftheirpotentialdamages.Itinvolveshydrologicandhydrau-
lic software packages. One of the main takeaways is that there is a need to invest in flood warning
systemsimprovementasapartofsustainableurbandevelopmentpracticesandfloodadaptationpro-
grams tominimizeflooddamages.
Theimpactofglobalwarming,suchasrisingsealevelsinresponsetochangingweatherpatterns,is
alreadyaffectingecosystems,freshwatersupplies,andhumanhealth.Climatechangeishardtoavoid;
however,reducingandpossiblystabilizingthesubstantialamountofheat-trappinggases(greenhouse
gas concentrations) released into the atmosphere could lessen its most destructive impact
(VijayaVenkataRaman et al., 2012; Kabisch et al., 2016). This effort is only dealing with climate
4 CHAPTER 1 Extreme events and climate change
changemitigation.Inrecentyears,theadaptationprocesseshavebeenconsideredasaviableoptionto
reducethevulnerabilitytothepredictednegativeimpactsofclimatechange(Nyongetal.,2007).Itis
morespecifictoadoptanintegratedapproachthatcombinesmitigationandadaptationstrategiesand
practices toaddress climatechange andassure morereliableoutcomes(Kabischetal.,2016;Nyong
et al., 2007).
Mitigation, adaptation, and governance
Thelastsectionofthebook,mitigation,adaptation,andgovernance,containssixchapters.Chapter7,
LifelineInfrastructuresandHydroclimateExtremesClimate:AFutureOutlook,isthefirstchapterof
thesection.Itintroducesthecriticalgapsinknowledgeandmethodologiesofclimateandweatherex-
treme stressors and stressed infrastructure lifelines as well as a science-based approach for resilient
transportation networks under exacerbated stresses from precipitation extremes in changing climate
scenarios.Naturalorhuman-inducedhazardsarepredictable,andbestrecoverystrategiesareadopted
toensureresiliencyandrobustlifelineofagiventransportnetworkduetoadvancesinnetworkscience.
Thischapterhastwomainparts.PartIdiscussesthedifferentaspectsofcharacterizingandquantifying
riskstotransportationinfrastructuresfromextremeeventsandtheirassociatedmethodologies;support-
ingexamplesarealsoillustrated.Inthesecondpartofthechapter,anetworkedperspectiveoncritical
infrastructure is presented in the context of posthazard recovery using the Indian Railways Network
spanning, servingthe daily commute ofthe larger metropolitan area ofMumbai, asa case study.
Thesecondchapterofthemitigation,adaptation,andgovernancesectionofthisbookfocuseson
greeninfrastructuresandtheirroleinmitigatingextremeeventsunderpast,current,andfutureclimate
change conditions. The design and implementation of green infrastructures (e.g., greenways, parks,
gardens, green roofs, woodlands, waterways, community farms, forests, and wilderness areas) could
reducegreenhousegasemissionsandprovidenatural-basedsolutionstofillthegapbetweenclimate
changemitigationandadaptationactions.Suchinfrastructuresarepartofamultifacetedecosystems-
based approach and an effective strategy that supports ecosystem resilience and human benefits
through ecosystem services. Chapter 8 contains four parts. A systematic review of different types
andapplicationsofgreeninfrastructuresispresentedinthefirstpartofthechapter.Airpollutionre-
moval,temperatureregulation,carbonsequestration,andimportantecosystemservicesareincludedin
thissecondpartofthechapter,whichalsodealswiththecharacteristicsandcategoriesofgreeninfra-
structures.Greeninfrastructurehasmultipleenvironmentalandhealthbenefitsforcommunities,and
itsapplicationcanincreasethehealthandenvironmentalequityacrosscommunitiesinthefaceofcli-
matechange.Healthandenvironmentalequityisthetopicofthethirdpartofthischapter.Thelastpart
concentratesonthekeycharacteristicsandclassificationsofgreeninfrastructurebyfunction,inaddi-
tiontoitscategorizingnomenclature.Ifgreeninfrastructurepracticesareadoptedglobally,theycould
have apparent mitigating effects on climate change impacts. However, future studies are required to
developguidanceforcommunitiesanddecision-makerstodetermineandapplythemostsite-specific
suited green infrastructures.
Adaptation to climate extremes and sea-level rise in coastal cities of developing countries is the
topicofthenextchapterofthissection.Itgivesanin-depthoverviewoftheresponsesofthosecities
tothechallengesofsea-levelriseunderachangingclimatefacingtheirvulnerarypopulationsandtheir
combined mitigation and adaptation measures. Although adaptation to climate change and sea-level
rise options are context-based, it is essential to share individual experiences to help other cities find
Overview of the chapters 5
themostsuitableadaptationpathwaysspecifictotheirconditions.Chapter9hastwomainparts.The
firstpartdiscussesthestate-of-the-artofclimatechangeadaptationinsmallandmediumcoastalcities
in developing countries through characterizing coastal exposure and impacts of climate change and
examiningadaptationstrategiestothoseexposuresandimpacts.Thesecondpartdiscusseshowtocon-
ductasynthesisofadaptationstrategiesforcoastalcities,especiallysmallandmediumtownsthathave
fewer adaptation capacities.
The content of these above-discussed chapters supports the concept that the impact of climate
changeismultidimensionalandhasacascadingeffect.Thesuccessofmitigationandadaptationefforts
needsthesupportofmultiplepolicyactors(e.g.,individual,community,andorganization)atdifferent
levels of governance (i.e., global,national, regional, and locallevels) toparticipate inclimate adap-
tationand mitigationprocesses (Moserand Boykoff, 2013).
Chapter10,titledMultilevelGovernanceinClimateChangeAdaptation:ConceptualClarification
andFutureOutlook,concentratesonthestrengthsandlimitationsofthemultilevelgovernanceconcept
anditsroleinfutureclimateadaptationandmitigationmeasuresandpractices.Thischapterprovides
insightsoninteractionsamongalltheinvolvedactorsandtheirrolesindecipheringthecomplexitiesof
adaptation governance. Despite the need, it is essential to examine and validate the usability of the
conceptinrelevantcontextsbeforeapplyingittoadaptationstudiesthatarediscussedafterward.Fun-
damental questions and issues that have been addressed throughout the chapter are as follows: How
manylevelsofgovernancearerequiredinclimatechangeadaptation?Shouldwefocusonthearrange-
mentofmultilevelnetworksortheprocesses?Woulditbeallrighttoconsideronlyhorizontalorver-
tical levels?
Despite the large need for a multiactor network of adaptation governance, only some climate
change actions (discursively and materially) have been observed at local scales, particularly, across
the United States. Although the United States has been a pioneer in climate change researches, it
has not been active in writing and implementing policies in response to scientific understanding.
Chapter11givesanoverviewofclimatechangegovernanceintheUnitedStates,evaluatesitsactual
positioninrelationtolocalClimateActionPlans(CAPs),andidentifiestheextenttowhichcitiesare
engaginginGHG mitigation activities using descriptivestatisticscomingfroma content analysisof
cities’CAPsaswellasinterviewsoflocalclimatemanagers.Thischapterhasfourmainparts.Part1
discussesthepoliticsandpoliciesofclimatechangeintheUnitedStatesatdifferentlevelstoidentify
intergovernmentalrelationstomultilevelnetworksinthecontextofclimatechangeactions.Thissec-
tionalsodiscussesspecificfederallevelactionsthathaveenabledorhinderedclimategovernancein
general.Thesecondpartgivesanoverviewofthestudiesonclimatechangegovernance atthelocal
levelandthespatialdistributionsoflocalCAPswiththelocalpoliticallandscape.Thethirdpartad-
vocatesfortheimportanceofunderstandingtheprevailingconditionsandfactorsthatinfluencepio-
neering localities’ innovation in climate governance to improve the adoption of climate change
governance at the local level. The last part of this chapter assesses the position of local CAPs in
GHG emissions reduction actions by analyzing preplan and postplan GHG emissions data. One of
thekeyfindingsisthatthenumberoflocalitiesacrosstheUnitedStatesthathavesymbolicallyjoined
climateactionnetworksorsignedtheclimatemitigationagreementsismuchmorethantheonesthat
implemented it.
Naturalandhuman-madedisasterscausefailuresofelectricalinfrastructuresthatwouldeventually
affectmillionsofpeopleandresultinintersystemscascadingfailures(PescaroliandAlexander,2016;
Zio,2016).Thusoneofthesignificantchallengesinthedesignofresilientelectricalinfrastructuresis