Climate Change and Extreme Events PDF
Preview Climate Change and Extreme Events
Climate Change and Extreme Events Climate Change and Extreme Events Edited by Ali Fares College ofAgriculture and Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX, United States Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates Copyright©2021ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicor mechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,without permissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseekpermission,furtherinformationaboutthe Publisher’spermissionspoliciesandourarrangementswithorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearance CenterandtheCopyrightLicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/permissions. ThisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightbythePublisher(other thanasmaybenotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchandexperiencebroadenour understanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices,ormedicaltreatmentmaybecome necessary. Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgeinevaluatingandusing anyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribedherein.Inusingsuchinformationormethods theyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesforwhomtheyhavea professionalresponsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors,assumeanyliability foranyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,or fromanyuseoroperationofanymethods,products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-822700-8 ForinformationonallElsevierpublications visitourwebsiteathttps://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals Publisher:CandiceJanco AcquisitionsEditor:LouisaMunro EditorialProjectManager:AliceGrant ProductionProjectManager:SujathaThirugnanaSambandam CoverDesigner:VictoriaPearsonEsser TypesetbySPiGlobal,India Contributors Vidya Anderson Climate Lab,Department ofPhysical & EnvironmentalSciences, University of Toronto Scarborough,Toronto,ON, Canada Ripendra Awal Collegeof Agricultureand Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, PrairieView, TX, UnitedStates MarkAnthony Ayure-Inga Agana University ofArkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States BilalM. Ayyub Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Director ofthe Center for Technology and Systems Management,University ofMaryland, College Park, MD, United States PhilipB.Bedient Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Rice University, Houston, TX,UnitedStates Normand E.Bergeron InstitutNationalde laRecherche Scientifique,Centre Eau Terre Environnement;Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur le Saumon Atlantique,Qu(cid:1)ebec City, QC, Canada UditBhatia Indian Instituteof TechnologyGandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India ClaudineBoyer InstitutNationalde laRecherche Scientifique,Centre Eau Terre Environnement,Qu(cid:1)ebec City, QC, Canada DanielCaissie Fisheries and OceansCanada,Moncton,NB, Canada Romney B.Duffey Private,Idaho Falls, ID, United States Zheng N. Fang Civil Engineering, The University ofTexas atArlington,Arlington, TX,UnitedStates Ali Fares Collegeof Agricultureand Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, PrairieView, TX, UnitedStates AndrewJ. Felton Department of Wildland Resources and The Ecology Center,Utah State University, Logan, UT, UnitedStates Vittorio (Victor)A. Gensini Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, United States xi xii Contributors William A. Gough ClimateLab;Department ofPhysical & Environmental Sciences, University ofToronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada Hamideh Habibi College ofAgriculture and Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX, United States Asif Ishtiaque Schoolfor Environment and Sustainability, University ofMichigan, Ann Arbor, MI,United States NishantKamboj Indian Institute ofTechnologyGandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India ShahzaibKhan Indian Institute ofTechnologyGandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India Tu Dam NgocLe FacultyofArchitecture, MienTrung University ofCivilEngineering, Tuy Hoa, Phu Yen, Vietnam Dongfeng Li Civil Engineering, The University ofTexas atArlington,Arlington,TX, United States Taha B.M.J. Ouarda InstitutNationaldelaRechercheScientifique,CentreEauTerreEnvironnement,Qu(cid:1)ebecCity,QC, Canada Andr(cid:1)e St-Hilaire Institut National de laRechercheScientifique,CentreEau Terre Environnement; Centre Interuniversitairede Recherche sur leSaumon Atlantique,Qu(cid:1)ebecCity, QC, Canada Yating Zhang Center for Technologyand Systems Management,University of Maryland,College Park, MD, Unites States Enrico Zio Energy Department, Politecnico diMilano, Milano, Italy; MINEParisTech, PSL Research University,CRC,SophiaAntipolis,France;EminentScholar,DepartmentofNuclearEngineering, College ofEngineering, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic ofKorea CHAPTER 1 Extreme events and climate change: A multidisciplinary approach Ali Fares,Hamideh Habibi,and Ripendra Awal CollegeofAgricultureandHumanSciences,PrairieViewA&MUniversity,PrairieView,TX,UnitedStates Introduction An event can be identified as an extreme (weather or climate) when the weather or climate variable exceeds a threshold, close to the upper or lower ends of the usual range over a predefined duration (Seneviratne et al., 2012). Many studies showed that frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of heavy-to-extreme events have increased across the world, which could be because of globalwarming(Norouzietal.,2019;Stott,2016;Booetal.,2006).Globalwarming/climatechange effectshaveacceleratedinrecentdecades(SheffieldandWood,2011).AccordingtotheUSNational Climate Assessment, over the past 50 years, the number and strength of weather-related natural catastrophes,suchasmajorhurricanes,heatwaves,floods,droughts,andtorrentialdownpours,have increased inthe United States (http://www.c2es.org/content/national-climate-assessment/). As a result of increasing greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources (Solomon et al., 2007), significanttrendshavebeenobservedinmaximumandminimumtemperatureextremesinmanyareas acrosstheworld,whichcausefewercolddaysandnightsandmorewarmdaysandnights(HeimJr, 2015).Safeeqetal.(2013)analyzedtrendsinobservedtemperatureduring1969–2007ontheisland ofOahu,Hawaii,toevaluatethe spatial andtemporalvariabilityaswell asquantify the relationship betweenlocaltemperatureandregionalclimateindices.Theirresultsrevealedthatdespitethesubstan- tialspatialandtemporalvariabilityinthetemperaturetrendsontheisland,therewasa0.17°C/decade islandwide minimum temperature increase during the four decades of their study period. The comp- lexity of the issue of climate change and extreme events (Fares et al., 2014; Habibi and Seo, 2018) requires an interdisciplinary approach to help understand the difficulty of the problem and also to theinterconnectivitybetweenclimatechangeandextremeevents.Thisbookusesamultidisciplinary approachinaddressingextremeeventsunderachangingclimatebasedonanin-depthanalysisofpast andcurrentconditionsaswellasfutureoutlooks.Inaddition,itdiscussestherelationshipbetweencli- mate change and extreme events and their impact on several aspects of human daily activities and manifestations. 1 ClimateChangeandExtremeEvents.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822700-8.00019-6 Copyright#2021ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. 2 CHAPTER 1 Extreme events and climate change Overview of the chapters Thebookcomprises12chapters;afterthefirstchapter,therestaregroupedintothreecomplementing sections.Thefirstsectionaddressestemperaturesandsevereconvectivestorms;thesecondsectionof the book contains chapters related to hydrological responses that give an overview of the current knowledgeandfutureoutlookoftherespectivetopics.Thethirdsectionofthebookcoversmitigation, adaptationmeasures,andgovernance.Thissectiondiscussesthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange andextremeeventsonecosystemresponses,lifelineinfrastructures,greeninfrastructure,andsea-level rise. It also reports on how governance and policies are dealing with climate change and extreme events. Weather parameters Thissectioncoversthreechapters.Chapter2,TemperatureExtremesinaChangingClimate,coversthe pastandprojectedhottemperatureextremesandtheirexpectedsocialandenvironmentalimpacts.Sur- facetemperatureandtheoccurrencesofhotextremeshavebeenincreasingsincethepreindustrialtimes (almost140yearsago),whichcouldbetheconsequenceofglobalwarming(Seneviratneetal.,2012; IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2013). An in-depth overview of observed changes in temperature and its impact are discussed in the first part of the chapter. The indices and metrics commonlyused forevaluatingandpredictingthechangesintemperatureextremes followed bytheobservationaldatacollectionandanalysisarepresented.Differentregionalandglobalclimate models,aswellasintegratedanddownscalingtechniques,areoneofthemaincomponentsofunder- standingthefuture/projectedtemperatureconditionoftheearth.Thesemodelsandtechniquesaredis- cussedindetailinthesecondpartofthechapter.ThelastpartofChapter2givesusanoverview of mitigationandadaptationstrategies(e.g.,reducinggreenhousegasemissionsandincreasingtheresil- ienceofinfrastructureandcriticalbuildings)appliedacrosstheUnitedStates.Themethodsforeval- uationandoptimizationofthesestrategiesareintroduced,whichhelpgovernmentsandstakeholders develop and implementthe best climateadaptations and resiliency measures. Changesinglobalairtemperatureaffectdailytemperaturesofsurfacewaterbodiessuchaslakes, streams,andriversthroughouttheyear.Oneofthevitalclimateelementsofaquaticecosystems(e.g., rivers,oceans,andseas)isthewatertemperaturebecauseitinfluencesmostprocessesaffectingwater quality,biologicalactivities,andmarinelives,forexample,fish,insects,zooplankton,andphytoplank- ton(Dallas,2009).Thetemperatureofsurfacewaterbodiesdeterminestheorganismsthatcantolerate suchtemperatureandthriveinsuchfreshwatersystems.Chapter3givesanin-depthoverviewofthe mainphysicalprocessesthatdefineextremetemperaturesinthecontextofpotentialchangesresulting fromclimatechangebecauseoftheirpotentialimpactondecreasingaquaticspecies’growthanddis- tributions.Detailedinformationabouttemperatureextremes,theirtrends,physicalprocesses,andhow climatechange may impact these processes are discussedin thischapter. Human-caused climate change is increasing the frequency and strength of torrential downpours; thesetrendsarepredictedtocontinueastheearthgetswarmer(Brooks,2013);consequently,itisnec- essarytounderstandtheimpactsofclimatechangeonseverethunderstormsandtornadoes,especially thosethatproducelargehailanddamagingstraightwinds.Chapter4,SevereConvectiveStormsina ChangingClimate,summarizesthecurrentknowledgeonthistopic,someofthecriticalquestionsthat still need answers, and research opportunities in this area. The first part of the chapter contains a Overview of the chapters 3 concisesummaryofthepresentknowledgeonthetopicfollowedbyasectionexplainingtheconducive settings that induce such occurrences and their documented changeability. The following section covers the significant large-scale drivers of these events and their relations to climate variability. Thechapteralsoincludesadiscussiononclimateteleconnections(e.g.,ElNinoSouthernOscillation), whicharerecognizedfortheirinfluenceontheglobalweatherpatternsandextremeweather.Inthelast part of the chapter, the author discusses the latest research examining severe convective storms and theirrelationstoclimatechange,withexplicitattentiontotheconvection-permittingdynamicaldown- scalingmethodology.Furthermore,theauthorhighlightssomeofthecutting-edgeresearchnecessary toincreasetheabilitytopredictsuchevents,lessentheirenvironmentalimpacts,andminimizetheir harmfuland adverseeffects on human lives andresources. Hydrological responses Chapter5discussesthepatterns,mechanisms,anduncertaintiesintheresponseofterrestrialnetpri- maryproductivitytoprecipitationextremes.Anin-depthoverviewofprojectedandobservedincreases inprecipitationextremesandtheirlinkstoanthropogenic-drivenatmosphericwarmingaregiveninthe introduction sectionofthe chapter.Thegoalsofthechapter andtheoutlineofitsremainingcontent mark the last part of the chapter’s introduction section. The following section enumerates some key examplesoftheimpactsthatprecipitationextremeshaveonecological,social,andeconomicsystems. Thehistoryofresearchandconceptualthoughtsonprecipitationextremeswithinecologyarethendis- cussed.Thewovenwithinhistoryisthestandingdebateaboutwhatisan“extreme”event.Patternsand mechanisms ofecosystem responses toprecipitation extremes, with emphasison their temporal var- iability,arepresentedinthemiddlesectionsofthechapter.Currentandfutureresearchneedsofforests, savannas,grasslands,deserts,andotherecosystems,includinghuman-managedecosystems,weredis- cussedinthelastsectionbeforethesummaryofthechapter.Thechaptersummaryhasanoverviewand key takeaways, knowledge gaps, and pathwayson how tomove forward. FloodEarlyWarningSystems(FWS)underChangingClimateandExtremeEventsisthetitleofthe secondchapterofthehydrologicalresponsessectionofthebook.Itfocusesonsomeofthecurrentflood warningsystemsoperatingintheUnitedStatesandintroducesthebasicconceptsofaneffectiveflood warningsystem,includingrainfallmonitoringsystems.Thechapterdiscussesthemaincomponentsof a typical FWS, including (1) rain gauge networks and their operation platform and (2) a remotely sensedrainfallthatencompassesradarsystemssuchasNext-GenerationWeatherRadar(NEXRAD) andsatellitesystemssuchasTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission,theGlobalPrecipitationMeasure- ment mission, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites mission. Hydrological modeling is the next important component of the FWS; it uses data of rainfall and other parameters toinitiatefloodwarningsandestimationoftheirpotentialdamages.Itinvolveshydrologicandhydrau- lic software packages. One of the main takeaways is that there is a need to invest in flood warning systemsimprovementasapartofsustainableurbandevelopmentpracticesandfloodadaptationpro- grams tominimizeflooddamages. Theimpactofglobalwarming,suchasrisingsealevelsinresponsetochangingweatherpatterns,is alreadyaffectingecosystems,freshwatersupplies,andhumanhealth.Climatechangeishardtoavoid; however,reducingandpossiblystabilizingthesubstantialamountofheat-trappinggases(greenhouse gas concentrations) released into the atmosphere could lessen its most destructive impact (VijayaVenkataRaman et al., 2012; Kabisch et al., 2016). This effort is only dealing with climate 4 CHAPTER 1 Extreme events and climate change changemitigation.Inrecentyears,theadaptationprocesseshavebeenconsideredasaviableoptionto reducethevulnerabilitytothepredictednegativeimpactsofclimatechange(Nyongetal.,2007).Itis morespecifictoadoptanintegratedapproachthatcombinesmitigationandadaptationstrategiesand practices toaddress climatechange andassure morereliableoutcomes(Kabischetal.,2016;Nyong et al., 2007). Mitigation, adaptation, and governance Thelastsectionofthebook,mitigation,adaptation,andgovernance,containssixchapters.Chapter7, LifelineInfrastructuresandHydroclimateExtremesClimate:AFutureOutlook,isthefirstchapterof thesection.Itintroducesthecriticalgapsinknowledgeandmethodologiesofclimateandweatherex- treme stressors and stressed infrastructure lifelines as well as a science-based approach for resilient transportation networks under exacerbated stresses from precipitation extremes in changing climate scenarios.Naturalorhuman-inducedhazardsarepredictable,andbestrecoverystrategiesareadopted toensureresiliencyandrobustlifelineofagiventransportnetworkduetoadvancesinnetworkscience. Thischapterhastwomainparts.PartIdiscussesthedifferentaspectsofcharacterizingandquantifying riskstotransportationinfrastructuresfromextremeeventsandtheirassociatedmethodologies;support- ingexamplesarealsoillustrated.Inthesecondpartofthechapter,anetworkedperspectiveoncritical infrastructure is presented in the context of posthazard recovery using the Indian Railways Network spanning, servingthe daily commute ofthe larger metropolitan area ofMumbai, asa case study. Thesecondchapterofthemitigation,adaptation,andgovernancesectionofthisbookfocuseson greeninfrastructuresandtheirroleinmitigatingextremeeventsunderpast,current,andfutureclimate change conditions. The design and implementation of green infrastructures (e.g., greenways, parks, gardens, green roofs, woodlands, waterways, community farms, forests, and wilderness areas) could reducegreenhousegasemissionsandprovidenatural-basedsolutionstofillthegapbetweenclimate changemitigationandadaptationactions.Suchinfrastructuresarepartofamultifacetedecosystems- based approach and an effective strategy that supports ecosystem resilience and human benefits through ecosystem services. Chapter 8 contains four parts. A systematic review of different types andapplicationsofgreeninfrastructuresispresentedinthefirstpartofthechapter.Airpollutionre- moval,temperatureregulation,carbonsequestration,andimportantecosystemservicesareincludedin thissecondpartofthechapter,whichalsodealswiththecharacteristicsandcategoriesofgreeninfra- structures.Greeninfrastructurehasmultipleenvironmentalandhealthbenefitsforcommunities,and itsapplicationcanincreasethehealthandenvironmentalequityacrosscommunitiesinthefaceofcli- matechange.Healthandenvironmentalequityisthetopicofthethirdpartofthischapter.Thelastpart concentratesonthekeycharacteristicsandclassificationsofgreeninfrastructurebyfunction,inaddi- tiontoitscategorizingnomenclature.Ifgreeninfrastructurepracticesareadoptedglobally,theycould have apparent mitigating effects on climate change impacts. However, future studies are required to developguidanceforcommunitiesanddecision-makerstodetermineandapplythemostsite-specific suited green infrastructures. Adaptation to climate extremes and sea-level rise in coastal cities of developing countries is the topicofthenextchapterofthissection.Itgivesanin-depthoverviewoftheresponsesofthosecities tothechallengesofsea-levelriseunderachangingclimatefacingtheirvulnerarypopulationsandtheir combined mitigation and adaptation measures. Although adaptation to climate change and sea-level rise options are context-based, it is essential to share individual experiences to help other cities find
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