Climate change and effects on the Barents Sea marine living resources

292 Pages·2012·9.1 MB·English

I M R / P I N R O
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2011
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Climate change and effects
on the Barents Sea marine living resources
15th Russian-Norwegian Symposium
Longyearbyen, 7-8 September 2011
Edited by
Tore Haug, Andrey Dolgov, Konstantin Drevetnyak,
Ingolf Røttingen, Knut Sunnanå and Oleg Titov
Institute of Marine Research - IMR Polar Research Institute of Marine
Fisheries and Oceanography - PINRO
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Earlier Norwegian-Russian Symposia:

1. Reproduction and Recruitment of Arctic Cod
Leningrad, 26-30 September 1983
Proceedings edited by O.R. Godø and S. Tilseth (1984)
2. The Barents Sea Capelin
Bergen, 14-17 August 1984
Proceedings edited by H. Gjøsæter (1985)
3. The Effect of Oceanographic Conditions on Distribution and Population Dynamics of Commercial
Fish Stocks in the Barents Sea
Murmansk, 26-28 May 1986
Proceedings edited by H. Loeng (1987)
4. Biology and Fisheries of the Norwegian Spring Spawning Herring and Blue Whiting in the
Northeast Atlantic
Bergen, 12-16 June 1989
Proceedings edited by T. Monstad (1990)
5. Interrelations between Fish Populations in the Barents Sea
Murmansk, 12-16 August 1991
Proceedings edited by B. Bogstad and S. Tjelmeland (1992)
6. Precision and Relevance of Pre-Recruit Studies for Fishery Management Related to Fish Stocks in
the Barents Sea and Adjacent Waters
Bergen, 14-17 June 1994
Proceedings edited by A.Hylen (1995)
7. Gear Selection and Sampling Gears
Murmansk, 23-24 June 1997
Proceedings edited by V. Shleinik and M Zaferman (1997)
8. Management Strategies for the Fish Stocks in the Barents Sea
Bergen, 14-16 June 1999
Proceedings edited by T. Jakobsen (2000)
9. Technical Regulations and By-catch Criteria in the Barents Sea Fisheries
Murmansk, 14-15 August 2001
Proceedings edited by M. Shlevelev and S. Lisovsky (2001)
10. Management Strategies for Commercial Marine Species in Northern Ecosystems
Bergen, 14-15 August 2003
Proceedings edited by Å. Bjordal, H. Gjøsæter and S. Mehl (2004)
11. Ecosystem Dynamics and Optimal Long-Term Harvest in the Barents Sea Fisheries
Murmansk, 15-17 August 2005
Proceedings edited by Vladimir Shibanov (2005)
12. Long term bilateral Russia-Norwegian scientific co-operation as a basis for sustainable
management of living marine resources in the Barents Sea
Tromsø, 21-22 August 2007
Proceedings edited by Tore Haug, Ole Arve Misund, Harald Gjøsæter and Ingolf Røttingen
13. Prospects for future sealing in the North Atlantic
Tromsø, 25-26 August 2008
Proceedings edited by Daniel Pike, Tom Hansen and Tore Haug
14. The Kamchatka (red king) crab in the Barents Sea and its effects on the Barents Sea ecosystem
Moscow, 11-13 August 2009
Abstract volume compiled by VNIRO, Moscow
Climate change and effects
on the Barents Sea marine living resources

15th Russian-Norwegian Symposium
Longyearbyen, 7-8 September 2011

Edited by
Tore Haug, Andrey Dolgov, Konstantin Drevetnyak,
Ingolf Røttingen, Knut Sunnanå and Oleg Titov

December 2011
Preface
The traditional Russian-Norwegian Symposium was held at the UNIS (University Studies at
Svalbard) in Longyearbyen, Svalbard (Spitsbergen), during the period 6-9 September 2011. A
total of 53 participants attended the symposium which included 3 opening addresses, 4
keynote talks, 31 oral presentations and 13 posters.

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The symposium was the 15 in a series of joint Russian-Norwegian symposia which started in
1983. Up to 1999, these symposia were attended mainly by scientists from IMR and PINRO.
From 1999 on, a broader scope has encouraged attendance also from fisheries management
and fishing industry. At the meeting in Longyearbyen, the prime scope of the symposium
was: “Climate change and effects on the Barents Sea marine living resources”. Contributions
were organized under three theme sessions: I) What are the changes?; II) What effects can be
expected on the ecosystem?; III) Management implications and challenges.

This gave participating scientists from IMR and PINRO good opportunity to address question
related to long and short term variations, and ask what these physical changes really are, and
how they may protrude into the future. Furthermore, the question is raised as to how these
assumed climate driven physical changes may change the ecosystems, and what implications
and future challenges this represents for the management of the resources in the area. Also
other institutions in Norway and Russia were invited to give presentations at the meeting.

It was evident that several presentations had a content and quality that would merit more than
merely printing in the traditional Proceedings, and 13 of these were selected for potential
inclusion in a thematic issue of the journal Marine Biology Research (MBR). Consequently, a
special issue of this journal will be published by the end of 2012 or early in 2013.

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These proceedings from the 15 Norwegian-Russian Symposium on climate change and
effects on the Barents Sea marine living resources, held in Longyearbyen in 2011, contains
the written contributions from all participants. Some are comprehensive, others are just
extended abstracts (e.g., the 13 presentations selected for publications to Marine Biology
Research). The Power Point presentations from all contributors are included as pdf-files on
the enclosed CD. Both the proceedings and the PP presentations are available on the IMR
website, www.imr.no. As for earlier symposia, the contributions have not been subject to peer
reviews. The editors are responsible for a few modest editorial changes for which it has not
been possible to obtain the authors’ approval. The editors are also indebted to Hugh M. Allen
for correcting and improving the English text.

Tromsø/Bergen/Murmansk December 2011
Tore Haug, Andrey Dolgov, Konstantin Drevetnyak, Ingolf Røttingen, Knut Sunnanå, and
Oleg Titov

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Table of Contents

Opening adresses.. .................................................................................................................................................... 7

Theme session I: What are the changes?........................................................................................................... 12
1.1 Arctic surprises: Sea ice loss and increased Arctic/Sub-Arctic linkages .................................................... 12
1.2 On drifting ice to the North Pole ................................................................................................................. 14
1.3 The Barents Sea – Arctic Ocean gateway: Water mass characteristics and transformations ...................... 16
1.4 Barents Sea climate variability during the last decade ................................................................................ 17
1.5 Climate trend forecast for the Norwegian and Barents Seas in 2012-2025 ................................................ 19
1.6 Regional climate scenarios for the Barents Sea .......................................................................................... 39
1.7 Observations and fine-resolution large-eddy simulations of the katabatic wind over Kongsvegen glacier,
Kongsfjorden and Ny Ålesund ................................................................................................................. 46
1.8 Variability of hydrochemical structure at the inner and outer boundaries of Eurasian Arctic estuaries. .... 53

Theme session II: What effects can be expected on the ecosystem? ............................................................... 54
2.1 Fishery and oceanographic aspects of performance of the Barents Sea ecosystem and the experience with
their application by the ICES AFWG ......................................................................................................... 54
2.2 From the Barents Sea to the Arctic Ocean. ................................................................................................. 55
2.3 The Polar Front and its influence on the Barents Seas ecology .................................................................. 56
2.4 Baseline mapping: a necessity for an assessment of effects on climate changes on benthic communities . 59
2.5 Long-term changes of macrozoobenthos in the southeastern Barents Sea ............................................. ….61
2.6 Pan-Svalbard growth rate variability and environmental regulation in the Arctic bivalve Serripes
groenlandicus. ............................................................................................................................................ 63
2.7 Climate induced changes in primary production and pelagic-benthic coupling in the northern Barents
Sea .......... .. ................................................................................................................................................. 65
2.8 Trophic structure and carbon flow in Arctic and Atlantic regimes around Svalbard revealed by stable
isotopes and fatty acid tracers ..................................................................................................................... 66
2.9 Double menu for Calanus in the Arctic: what are the life history consequences in a changing climate? ... 67
2.10 Double menu for Calanus in the Arctic: what are the life history consequences in a changing climate? ... 68
2.11 Studies of early development of Barents Sea capelin in different temperature conditions ......................... 69
2.12 Impact of marine climate variability and stock size on the distribution area of Barents Sea capelin ......... 69
2.13 Polar cod and capelin in relation to water masses and sea ice conditions ................................................... 81
2.14 The link between temperature, fish size, spawning time and reproductive success of Atlantic cod ........... 85
2.15 Changes in the relations between oceanographic conditions and recruitment of cod, haddock and herring
in the Barents Sea ....................................................................................................................................... 87
2.16 Size and age dependent geographic distribution of Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea - effects of
physical conditions and abundance ............................................................................................................. 88
2.17 Species-specific habitat conditions and possible changes in the distribution of fish in the Barents Sea
during climate change ................................................................................................................................. 94
2.18 Functional diversity of the Barents Sea fish community: preliminary data applied to recently developed
methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 101
2.19 The effect of climate fluctuations on demersal fisheries in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters ............. 105
2.20 Structural changes in the macroplankton – pelagic fish – cod trophic complex caused by climate
change ..... . ................................................................................................................................................ 105
2.21 Variability in population parameters of harp seals: Responses to changes in sea temperature and ice
cover ? ..... ................................................................................................................................................. 115
2.22 On seasonal changes of the carbonate system in the Barents Sea: observations and modeling ................ 117
2.23 Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change, BarEcoRe: 2010-2013. ............ 120
2.24 Realization of complementary reproductive strategies of Calanus hyperboreus and Mallotus villosus in
the Barents Sea.......................................................................................................................................... 121
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2.25 Spatial variation in density of 0-group cod and its influence on year class strength. ............................... 139
2.26 The possibility of forecasting the impact of climate change on Herring and cod stock dynamics ........... 147
2.27 Structure of the Barents Sea fish community as result of climatic fluctuations ........................................ 149
2.28 Feeding of polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in the Barents Sea related to food abundance and water
masses ..... ................................................................................................................................................. 159
2.29 Long-term variations in the importance of prey species for demersal fish in the Barents Sea under
conditions of climate change .................................................................................................................... 160
2.30 Barents Sea Ammodytidae and their ecological significance for the top predators during summer
feeding….. ................................................................................................................................................ 181
2.31 Monitoring external pathologies in fish as a method of integral estimation of changes in the ecosystem
of the Barents Sea under the influence of natural and climatic factors ..................................................... 189
2.32 The Potential Influence of Marine Mammals on Fisheries Under Current Conditions in the Barents
Sea……… ................................................................................................................................................. 194
2.33 Modeling of PCB propagation in the Barents Sea .................................................................................... 199

Theme session III: Management implications and challenges ............................................................................ 200
3.1 Implications of Climate Change for the Management of Living Marine Resources ................................. 200
3.2 Should living marine resources management be affected by climate change? ......................................... 206
3.3 The collapse of Norwegian spring -spawning herring stock; Climate or fishing? ................................... 217
3.4 Sea surface temperature dynamics and year class strength of capelin (Mallotus villosus) in the Barents
Sea. ......... ................................................................................................................................................. 217
3.5 Unquantifiable uncertainty in projecting stock response to climate change: Example from NEA cod .... 245
3.6 The joint Norwegian-Russian ecosystem survey: overview and lessons learned ..................................... 247
3.7 Simulation of changes in the harvesting strategy of Northeast Arctic cod as response to climate
change….. ................................................................................................................................................. 272

Appendix 1: Symposium program ...................................................................................................................... 281

Appendix 2: List of participants .......................................................................................................................... 289

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Opening adress
Ole Arve Misund
Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway

Dear Colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen
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Welcome to the 15 Norwegian – Russian Symposium here at the University Centre, UNIS,
in Longyearbyen, Svalbard. This symposium is number 15 in a series of joint Norwegian –
Russian symposia on fisheries research with the development of our common living marine
resources in the Barents Sea as our common starting point. The scientific and management
cooperation for sustainable fisheries and harvest of the living marine resources in the Barents
Sea has been there for more than 50 years, and now we have a proper borderline between our
nations in the Barents Sea also, and therefore an even better framework for our cooperation.

The topic this time is very relevant; on how climate changes have effects and may have
effects on the living marine resources in th Barents Sea. Changes of the climate are evident
through many signals, and it is our role as scientists to observe, describe, model, forecast, and
not at least to communicate our findings so society has the possibility to decide and take the
right measures. Still we see examples that leaders in the society seem to ignore what is going
on as the Director of the Norwegian Oil Company who claimed recently that we should
concentrate on people’s lives today, and not on how the weather might be many years ahead.
Our Minister of Environment replied that there is no wonder that young people were difficult
to recruit to the oil industry since companies were led by such self-declared idiots!

So, we are definitely focusing on an important subject. I look forward to the many
presentations and posters, and in due time to read (or at least to see) the publications which
hopefully will come from this event. Good luck!

Thank you!

Photo: Havforskningsinstituttet, Monika Blikaas
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Opening adress
Ole Jørgen Lønne
UNIS, Longyearbyen, Norway

Ladies and Gentlemen
It is a pleasure for me, on behalf of your local host, to welcome you all to The 15th Russian-
Norwegian Symposium in Longyearbyen, Svalbard. I find it only natural that one of the two
most influential scientific institutions working in the high arctic, PINRO from Russia and
IMR from Norway, meet on this island where Russians and Norwegians have been working
side by side for so many years.

The University Centre in Svalbard, or UNIS for short, is proud to be the host of such an
important meeting. UNIS is a limited company, owned by the Ministry of Research and
Higher Education and the world’s northernmost higher education institution. We were
established in 1993 to provide university level education in Arctic studies. The aims of UNIS
are to provide a range of studies and engage in research based on the unique geographical
location of Svalbard in the High Arctic, exploiting the special advantages that this offers from
use of the natural environment as an outdoor laboratory and arena for scientific observations,
data acquisition and analytical review. This year we offer 44 high quality courses at the
undergraduate, graduate and postgraduate level in Arctic Biology, Arctic Geology, Arctic
Geophysics and Arctic Technology. We provide courses complementary to the teaching given
at the mainland universities within a structured program on the bachelor, master and doctoral
level.

About 350 students from all over the world take one or more courses every year at UNIS. The
student body consists of 50 % Norwegian and 50 % international students. This year 5% of
our students are from Russia. Faculty are made up by 50 % Norwegians and 50 %
international staff, and consist currently of 20 full time professors, 21 adjunct professors and
120 guest lecturers who specialize in arctic issues. With students, staff and families we are
about 15 % of the population in Longyearbyen. UNIS researchers work in collaboration with
Norwegian and foreign research institutions and are actively involved in a large number of
joint research projects.

We moved into this building in 1995. The new part of the building was opened in 2006 to
house the Svalbard Science Centre. UNIS is the core of the Svalbard Science Centre, which
also is the home of the Svalbard Museum, the Norwegian Polar Institute, Svalbard Science
Forum, EISCAT, the Governor’s Heritage Magazine and others. The 12 000 square meter
science centre is a modern building with optimal conditions for studying and research linked
to arctic nature and the greatly expanded volume will facilitate the continuing strong
development of education and research at UNIS.

The biology department consists of one marine and one terrestrial research group. The marine
research group consists of three faculty members, two Postdocs and three PhDs that work
together on joint research programs. In particular we seek to link biodiversity with ecosystem
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function, aiming to identify the main physio-biochemical factors that determine the ecology of
various arctic organisms. We use a combination of molecular and traditional techniques to
investigate marine microbes, zooplankton life histories, ice-associated flora and fauna, as well
as the ecology of marine organisms during the polar night.

Longyearbyen is the only place in the world where you can find a well-established
community, with a well-developed infrastructure and very good possibilities for
communication with the rest of the world as far north as 78ºN. We have an international
connection through daily departures from the airport, open harbor half the year and
telecommunications including high speed internet access through fiber-optic cables. In total
we think we have a truly international meeting place for the arctic experts of today and the
arctic experts tomorrow.

It is my wish that you find this setting as inspirational as we do, and that this will contribute a
successful meeting. Again it is my pleasure to welcome you all to Longyearbyen, to UNIS
and that this meeting will be a great success.

Photo: Eva Therese Jensen

Figure 1. The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS); Venue for the 15. Russian-Norwegian Symposium on
Climate change and effects on the Barents Sea marine living resources.

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Opening address
Yuri Lepesevich
Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (PINRO), Murmansk,Russia

Dear Colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen
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I am pleased to greet the participants of the 15 Norwegian-Russian Symposium on
Spitsbergen. This Symposium represents an example of close international cooperation in
general and successful Russian-Norwegian cooperation in particular. In the first place, I
would like to express my appreciation to the hosting party for an opportunity to say a few
words before the opening of the symposium.

First of all, I cannot but highlight the exoticism of the venue. A special thanks for it to the
hosts. It is my first time being here and I hope not the last one. At any rate, a matter of
establishing an affiliate of our institute on Spitsbergen is being seriously discussed in Russia
on the governmental level. Though I have not seen much of Spitsbergen, I would like to say
that severe nature and muted colours of the Arctic can stagger your imagination none the
worse than the bright colours in jungles. This Symposium is unique because it is
simultaneously being held in three places – international Spitsbergen, Norwegian Svalbard
and Russian Grumant.

Now I would like to speak about the event for which we have gathered here. Since the
fisheries is a primary matter of interest for us I cannot but remind you once more again about
the favourable background for our symposium. The haddock stock in the Barents Sea is at its
highest recorded historical peak, abundance and biomass of cod is the highest in over 40
years, Greenland halibut stocks have increased to the level recorded in the beginning of the
1970s and are almost two times higher than the long-term mean. It is expected that total
quota amounts for cod, haddock and Greenland halibut will be the highest since the time of
introducing quota setting. Capelin and saithe stocks are in stable shape.

I am talking about the current state of fisheries in the Barents Sea because I am sure that not
only the warming of the Barents Sea which started at the end of the 1980s contributed to the
good status of the stocks but also the fruitful work of scientists from Norway and Russia
including the work carried out in the frames of joint symposia.

A history of arranging Russian-Norwegian symposia dates back several decades. Since 1983,
the most interesting and burning problems related to fisheries research in the Barents Sea have
been traditionally discussed at joint symposia. The considerable warming in the North,
including the Barents Sea, has been reported over the recent 10-15 years. The warming
resulted in substantial changes in the distribution and abundance of all the components of
marine ecosystems, i.e. plankton, benthos, fish species, marine mammals and birds. Thus,
climate variations directly affect the interests of fishing industries both in Russia and Norway.
Therefore, a decision was made to assess, at the 15th Symposium, the impact of climate
variations on some species, interspecific relationships and the Barents Sea ecosystem in
general and on how this may affect multi-species fisheries in this area.
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