Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars PDF
Preview Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars
Climate Change and Armed Conflict This book examines the evolution of the relationship between climate change and conflict, and attempts to visualize future trends. Owing to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, current trends in climate change will not appreciably alter over the next half century even if drastic action is taken now. Changes in climate will produce unique types and modes of conflict, redefine the value of important resources, and create new challenges to maintaining social order and stability. This book examines the con- sequences of climate change, and argues that it has and will produce two types of different types of conflict: “Cold Wars” and “Hot Wars”. Cold Wars will occur in northern and southern latitudes as warming draws countries into pos- sible conflict due to expanding interests in exploiting new resources and territ- ories (inter- state conflict). Hot Wars will break out around the Equator as warming expands and intensifies dry areas, increasing competition for scarce resources (intra-s tate conflict). Conflict is not inevitable, but it will also be a con- sequence of how states, international institutions and people react to changes in climate. Climate change and conflict have always shaped human experiences. This book lays out the parameters of the relationship, shows its history, and fore- casts its trends, offering future conditions and opportunities for changing the his- torical path we are on. This book will be of great interest for students of climate change and environ- mental security, peace and conflict studies, and IR/security studies in general. James R. Lee is a Professor in the School of International Service, American University, Washington, DC, and Associate Director of American University’s Center for Teaching Excellence. He is author of several books on international relations, including, most recently, Exploring the Gaps: Vital Links Between Trade, Environment and Culture (2000). Routledge studies in peace and conflict resolution Series editors: Tom Woodhouse and Oliver Ramsbotham University of Bradford Peace and Security in the Postmodern World The OSCE and conflict resolution Dennis J.D. Sandole Truth Recovery and Justice after Conflict Managing violent pasts Marie Breen Smyth Peace in International Relations Oliver P. Richmond Social Capital and Peace-B uilding Creating and resolving conflict with trust and social networks Edited by Michaelene Cox Business, Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding Contributions from the private sector to address violent conflict Derek Sweetman Creativity and Conflict Resolution Alternative pathways to peace Tatsushi Arai Climate Change and Armed Conflict Hot and Cold Wars James R. Lee Climate Change and Armed Conflict Hot and Cold Wars James R. Lee First published 2009 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2009. To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk. © 2009 James R. Lee All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN 0-203-87220-7 Master e-book ISBN ISBN10: 0-415-77869-7 (hbk) ISBN10: 0-203-87220-7 (ebk) ISBN13: 978-0-415-77869-5 (hbk) ISBN13: 978-0-203-87220-8 (ebk) For Linda Contents List of maps ix List of tables x Acknowledgments xi 1 The Climate Change War 1 Climate change will do more than just raise the temperature 3 The expanding Equatorial Tension Belt and the emerging Polar Tension Belt 7 Hot Wars and Cold Wars 14 Optimists and pessimists, realists and idealists 16 2 A brief history of climate change and conflict 24 Holocene Warming Period 25 Medieval Climate Optimum 34 Little Ice Age 43 Anthropogene Warming Period 51 The evolving role of climate change and conflict in history 60 3 Climate change and conflict trends 66 The evidence for and forecasts of climate change 67 Extrapolating conflict trends 82 Regions for future climate change and conflict 94 Climate change, conflict regions, and lessons 115 4 Scenarios of climate change and conflict 117 Scenarios of climate change and conflict 117 Comparing future cases 146 Climate Change and Armed Conflict This book examines the evolution of the relationship between climate change and conflict, and attempts to visualize future trends. Owing to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, current trends in climate change will not appreciably alter over the next half century even if drastic action is taken now. Changes in climate will produce unique types and modes of conflict, redefine the value of important resources, and create new challenges to maintaining social order and stability. This book examines the con- sequences of climate change, and argues that it has and will produce two types of different types of conflict: “Cold Wars” and “Hot Wars”. Cold Wars will occur in northern and southern latitudes as warming draws countries into pos- sible conflict due to expanding interests in exploiting new resources and territ- ories (inter- state conflict). Hot Wars will break out around the Equator as warming expands and intensifies dry areas, increasing competition for scarce resources (intra-s tate conflict). Conflict is not inevitable, but it will also be a con- sequence of how states, international institutions and people react to changes in climate. Climate change and conflict have always shaped human experiences. This book lays out the parameters of the relationship, shows its history, and fore- casts its trends, offering future conditions and opportunities for changing the his- torical path we are on. This book will be of great interest for students of climate change and environ- mental security, peace and conflict studies, and IR/security studies in general. James R. Lee is a Professor in the School of International Service, American University, Washington, DC, and Associate Director of American University’s Center for Teaching Excellence. He is author of several books on international relations, including, most recently, Exploring the Gaps: Vital Links Between Trade, Environment and Culture (2000). viii Contents 5 Climate change, conflict, and political choices 148 The politics and geopolitics of climate change and conflict 148 Learning to live with climate change and conflict 160 Five conclusions 165 Bibliography 171 Index 178
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