Climate Change Adaptation: A Green Infrastructure Planning Framework for Resilient Urban Regions

243 Pages·2014·4.67 MB·English

by  Yaser F. Abunnasr

University of Massachusetts - Amherst
ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst
Dissertations Dissertations and Theses
9-1-2013
Climate Change Adaptation: A Green
Infrastructure Planning Framework for Resilient
Urban Regions
Yaser F. Abunnasr
University of Massachusetts - Amherst, [email protected]
Follow this and additional works at:http://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations
Recommended Citation
Abunnasr, Yaser F., "Climate Change Adaptation: A Green Infrastructure Planning Framework for Resilient Urban Regions" (2013).
Dissertations.Paper 775.
This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Dissertations and Theses at ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has
been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact
[email protected].
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION:
A GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENT
URBAN REGIONS

A Dissertation Presented
by
YASER ABUNNASR

Submitted to the Graduate School of the
University of Massachusetts Amherst in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILISOPHY

September 2013

Regional Planning
Department of Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning
© Copyright by Yaser Abunnasr 2013
All Rights Reserved
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION:
A GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENT
URBAN REGIONS

A Dissertation Presented
By

YASER ABUNNASR

Approved as to style and content by:

Elisabeth Hamin, Chair

Elizabeth Brabec, Member

Qian Yu, Member

Elisabeth Hamin, Department Head
Department of Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning
DEDICATION
To
Maria, Zayn & Jad
Muna & Fadeel
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank all my committee members, Professor Elisabeth Hamin,
Professor Elizabeth Brabec, and Professor Qian Yu for their support in a long and
arduous journey.
Elisabeth, I highly appreciate your unequivocal support, efficiency in handling
matters and confidence in my capabilities to make the leap from design to research. You
did not stop believing in me when I doubted myself. Thank you!
Elizabeth, I appreciate the time you took to follow-up on my progress during your
travel in different time zones and for invigorating discussions.
Qian, for inspiring me to be immersed in geographic information systems and
remote sensing. These topics are dear to my heart as they come closest to fulfill a
childhood dream of mine.
Thank you to Ray La Raja and Scott Auerbach for their informal teaching through
great discussions.
Thank you to Maria for your love and patience in sharing these absolutely
challenging years.

v
ABSTRACT

CLIMATE CHANGE ADPATATION: A GREEN INFRASTRCTURE PLANNING
FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENT URBAN REGIONS

SEPTEMBER 2013
YASER ABUNNASR, B.ARCH., AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT
M.L.A., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST
Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST
Directed by: Elisabeth Hamin, Associate Professor

The research explores multiple facets of a green infrastructure planning
framework for climate change adaptation in urban regions. The research is organized in
three distinct, but related parts. The first develops an adaptation implementation model
based on triggering conditions rather than time. The approach responds to policy makers’
reluctance to engage in adaptation planning due to uncertain future conditions. The model
is based on planning and adaptation literature and applied to two case studies.
Uncertainty during implementation may be reduced by incremental and flexible policy
implementation, disbursing investments as needs arise, monitoring conditions, and
organizing adaptation measures along no-regrets to transformational measures. The
second part develops the green infrastructure transect as an organizational framework for
mainstreaming adaptation planning policies. The framework integrates multi-scalar and
context aspects of green infrastructure for vertical and horizontal integration of policy.
The framework integrates literature from urban and landscape planning and tested on
Boston. Prioritization of adaptation measures depends on location. Results suggest that
green infrastructure adaptation policies should respond to configuration of zones. Cross
vi
jurisdiction coordination at regional and parcel scales supports mainstreaming. A
secondary conclusion suggests that green infrastructure is space intensive and becomes
the basis of the empirical study in part three. A spatial assessment method is introduced
to formulate opportunities for green infrastructure network implementation within land-
uses and across an urban-rural gradient. Spatial data in GIS for Boston is utilized to
develop a percent pervious metric allowing the characterization of the study area into six
zones of varying perviousness. Opportunities across land uses were assessed then
maximum space opportunities were defined based on conservation, intensification,
transformation and expansion. The opportunities for transformation of impervious
surfaces to vegetal surfaces are highest in the urban center and its surrounding.
Intensification of vegetation on pervious surfaces along all land uses is high across the
gradient. Conservation of existing forested land is significant for future climate proofing.
The concluding section argues for a green infrastructure planning framework for
adaptation based on integration into existing infrastructural bodies, regional vision,
incremental implementation, ecosystem benefits accounting, and conditions based
planning rather than time based.

vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Pages
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................ v
ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... vi
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ xii
LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xiii
CHAPTERS
1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1

1.1.Green Infrastructure as an adaptation suite of measures ................................... 1
1.2.Dissertation propositions ................................................................................... 7
1.3.Dissertation Organization ................................................................................ 11
2 GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE, URBAN FORM AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY:
COMPLEMENTARITY, SYNERGY AND CONTRADICTION ...................... 16

2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 16
2.2 Resilience: An Interpretive framework ........................................................... 18
2.3 Adaptation to Climate Change ........................................................................ 21
2.4 Green Infrastructure ........................................................................................ 25

2.4.1 Network and Connectivity .................................................................... 27
2.4.2 Multi-scalar spatial elements ................................................................ 29
2.4.3 Multi-functionality as Ecosystem Benefits ........................................... 32
2.4.4 Implementation ..................................................................................... 34
2.4.5 Complementarity Between Green Infrastructure and Adaptation
Measures ............................................................................................... 36

2.5 Urban Form ..................................................................................................... 37
2.6 Green Infrastructure, Space and Adaptation ................................................... 40
3 WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY: ADDRESSING CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH ADAPTATION PLAN IMPLEMENTATION ................................ 43

3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 43
3.2 Climate Uncertainty and Urban Planning Policy ............................................ 44

3.2.1 Climate Change Timing Uncertainty .................................................... 45
3.2.2 Climate Variability and Climate Change .............................................. 46
viii
3.2.3 Uncertainty in Impacts at the Urban Micro-Climate Scale ................... 47
3.2.4 The Challenge of Uncertainty to Municipal Planning .......................... 48

3.3 Municipal Adaptation Planning Processes ...................................................... 49

3.3.1 Maladaptation in the Planning Process ................................................. 51
3.3.2 Mainstreaming and Incremental Change .............................................. 52

3.4 Windows of Opportunity Model..................................................... 52

3.4.1 Phasing Policies .................................................................................... 54
3.4.2 ATPs and Types of Indicators ............................................................... 55
3.4.3 Example: London and the Thames Barrier .......................................... 57

3.5 Application in Case Study Communities ........................................................ 58

3.5.1 Managing Rising Sea Level Impacts: The City of Clarence, Tasmania,
Australia................................................................................................ 60
3.5.2 Managing flood impacts from Extreme Precipitation Events: The City
of Copenhagen, Denmark ..................................................................... 65
3.5.3 Case Study Discussion ......................................................................... 69

3.6 Concluding Remarks ....................................................................................... 70
4 THE GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSECT: AN ORGANIZATIONAL
FRAMEWORK FOR MAINSTREAMING ADAPTATION PLANNING
POLICIES ............................................................................................................. 73

4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 73
4.2 The Green Infrastructure Transect .................................................................. 75
4.3 Boston Metropolitan Region ........................................................................... 81
4.4 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 88
5 PERCENT PERVIOUS: AN ASSESSMENT METHOD OF GREEN
INFRASTRCTURE SPACE OPPORTUNITIES - AN APPLICATION TO THE
BOSTON METROPOLITAN GRADIENT FOR URBAN HEAT ISLAND
ADPATATION ..................................................................................................... 90

5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 90
5.2 The Urban Heat Island and Urban Form ......................................................... 96
5.3 Effective Vegetated Green Infrastructure
Measures for the Urban Heat Island .............................................................. 106
5.4 Framework of Strategies to Increase
Vegetated Green Infrastructure Surfaces ...................................................... 112
5.5 Method .......................................................................................................... 117
ix