Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era Reassessing Collective Leadership

380 Pages·2016·9.07 MB·English

by  Cheng Li

CHINESE POLITICS IN THE XI
JINPING ERA
Reassessing Collective Leadership
CHENG LI
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS
Washington, D.C.
Copyright © 2016
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data
Names: Li, Cheng, 1956– author.
Title: Chinese politics in the Xi Jinping era : reassessing collective leadership / Cheng Li.
Description: Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2016. | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016017497 | ISBN 9780815726920 (paperback : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780815726937 (epub) | ISBN
9780815726944 (pdf)
Subjects: LCSH: China—Politics and government—2002– | Political Leadership—China. | Xi, Jinping. | BISAC:
POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Ideologies / Communism & Socialism. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / International
Relations / General.
Classification: LCC DS779.46 .L5227 2016 | DDC 951.06/12—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016017497
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Typeset in Minion
Composition by Westchester Publishing Services
DEDICATED TO
LYNN T. WHITE III
A GREAT TEACHER, MENTOR, AND FRIEND
SINCE MY GRADUATE STUDENT YEARS
AT PRINCETON
CONTENTS
List of Figures and Tables
Acknowledgments
PROLOGUE Leadership: A Central Issue in Chinese Politics
1 Governance: Collective Leadership Revisited
2 Structure: China’s Party-State System
3 Elites: Composition and Representation on the 18th Central Committee
4 Education: Advanced Degrees, Part-Time Training, and Study Abroad
5 Occupations: From Rule by Technocrats to a More Diverse Leadership
6 Mishu: Favoritism and Corruption in Elite Politics
7 Factions: One Party, Two Coalitions?
8 Protégés: Xi’s Inner Circle
9 Trajectory: The 19th National Party Congress and Changing Dynamics in Chinese
Society
List of Abbreviations
Notes
Glossary
Bibliography
Index
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
FIGURES
2-1 Chinese Communist Party Membership, 1949–2014
2-2 Officials and Staff in the Chinese Communist Party and Government, 1966–2000
2-3 Organization of the Chinese Communist Party, 2016
2-4 State Organization of the People’s Republic of China
3-1 Turnover Rate of the Central Committee, 1982–2012
3-2 Turnover Rate in Top Leadership Bodies at the 18th Party Congress
3-3 Members of the 18th Central Committee, by Year of Birth
3-4 Politburo Members with Provincial Chief Experience at the 14th–18th Central Committees
4-1 Undergraduate Graduation Years of the Members of the 18th Central Committee, including the
Famous “Class of 1982”
4-2 Educational Background of Members of the 18th Central Committee: Ratio of Part-Time to
Full-Time Study
4-3 Educational Background of Members of the 18th Politburo: Ratio of Part-Time to Full-Time
Study
4-4 People’s Republic of China Students and Scholars Studying Abroad, 1978–2014
4-5 Destinations of Chinese Students and Scholars Studying Abroad, 2014
4-6 Foreign-Educated People’s Republic of China Citizen Returnees, 1978–2014
5-1 Occupations of Chinese Communist Party Members, 2013
5-2 Technocrat Representation among Full Members of the Central Committee, 1982–2012
5-3 Technocrat Representation in Ministerial/Provincial Leadership Posts, 1982–2013
5-4 Technocrat Representation in the Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee, 1992–2012
5-5 Private Entrepreneurs with Chinese Communist Party Membership
5-6 Full Members of the Central Committee Trained in Law or the Social Sciences, 1997–2012
6-1 Members of the 18th Central Committee with Mishu Experience in Different Levels of
Leadership
7-1 Tuanpai and Princelings on the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, 2002–12
7-2 Tuanpai Members on the 18th Central Committee Based on Their Level of Leadership
Experience in the Chinese Communist Youth League
TABLES
1-1 Top Leadership Posts That Xi Jinping Holds Concurrently, as of May 2016
1-2 Factional Identity of Members of the Politburo, 2016
1-3 Factional Affiliation of Top Two Leaders in the Most Important People’s Republic of China
Leadership Organs, 2016
2-1 Concurrent Leadership Positions Held by Politburo Standing Committee Members, 1992–2012
2-2 Composition of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms, as of
May 2016
3-1 Elite Turnover on Central Committees and Politburos, 1956–2012
3-2 Current Provincial Chiefs (Party Secretaries and Governors), as of May 2016
3-3 Average Length of Tenure of Provincial Party Secretaries and Governors, 1985–2013
3-4 Tenure and Central Committee Membership Status of Current State Council Members, as of
May 2016
3-5 Distribution of Provincial Leaders Holding Full Membership Seats on the 15th, 16th, 17th, and
18th Central Committees, 1997–2012
3-6 Average Age of the Core Leadership Groups of the Chinese Communist Party, 12th–18th
Central Committees
3-7 Average Age of 8th–18th Central Committee Members
3-8 Female Representation on the Central Committee, 1956–2012
3-9 National Minority Representation on the Central Committee, 1956–2012
3-10 Distribution of Ethnicities of Members of the 18th Central Committee
3-11 Distribution of Birthplaces by Province of Central Committee Full Members, 1992, 2002, and
2012
3-12 Principal Bureaucratic Affiliations of Central Committee Full Members, 1992, 2002, and 2012
3-13 Type of Membership of Provincial Chiefs on the 18th Central Committee, as of January 2014
3-14 Principal Bureaucratic Affiliation of Politburo Members before Politburo Tenure, 14th–18th
Party Congresses
4-1 Percentage of College-Educated Members on the 8th–18th Central Committees
4-2 Distribution of the Highest Level of Educational Attainment of 18th Central Committee
Members
4-3 Distribution of Advanced Degrees Received by 18th Central Committee Members, by Year
4-4 Schools at Which Members of the 18th Central Committee Pursued Their Undergraduate and
Graduate Studies, Top 10 Schools
4-5 Foreign-Educated Returnees in the Membership of the 16th, 17th, and 18th Central Committees
4-6 Overseas Educational Experience of Members of the 18th Central Committee
4-7 Selected Members of the 18th Central Committee Who Received Foreign Advanced Degrees
4-8 Foreign Countries in Which Members of the 18th Central Committee Studied
4-9 Duration of Study Abroad among Members of the 18th Central Committee
4-10 Members of the 18th Central Committee Who Have Attended a Short-Term Program at
Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government
4-11 Academic Fields Studied Abroad by Members of the 18th Party Congress
4-12 Returnee Representation in the Ministerial Leadership, 2010
5-1 Prominent Business Leaders Who Serve on the 18th Central Committee, 2016
5-2 Selected Members of the 18th Central Committee with Administrative Experience in the
SASACs and Large SOEs, 2016
5-3 Top Provincial/Municipal Leaders with Administrative Experience in the SASACs and Large
SOEs, 2016
5-4 Educational Background of Full Members of the 16th and 18th Central Committees, 2002 and
2012
5-5 Subgroups of Law Degree Holders on the 18th Central Committee, 2016
5-6 Members of the 18th Central Committee with Formal Training and Professional Experience in
the Legal Field
5-7 Biographical Sketches of President and Vice-Presidents of the Supreme People’s Court, 2016
6-1 Career Development and Current Status of Personal Secretaries (Dami) of the Politburo
Standing Committee Members of the 17th Central Committee, as of August 2015
6-2 Zhou Yongkang’s Mishu Cluster
6-3 Percentage of Leaders in Important Leadership Positions with Mishu Experience, 2014
6-4 Select Civilian Members of the 18th Central Committee Who Advanced Their Careers
Primarily as a Mishu and/or Secretary-General, 2016
6-5 Members of the 18th Politburo with Mishu and/or Secretary-General Experience
6-6 Select Military Members of the 18th Central Committee Who Began Their Careers as Mishu
6-7 Xi Jinping’s Current and Former Mishu, as of May 2016
7-1 Prominent “Shanghai Gang” Members on the 18th Central Committee
7-2 Princelings on the Politburo Standing Committee
7-3 Princelings on the Central Military Commission
7-4 China’s Most Powerful Princelings in the Civilian Leadership of the 18th Central Committee
7-5 China’s Most Powerful Princelings in the Military Leadership of the 18th Central Committee
7-6 Increase in Tuanpai Leaders Serving as Provincial Chiefs, 2003–14
7-7 Overview of Provincial Chiefs (Party Secretaries and Governors/Mayors), as of May 2016
7-8 Members of the 18th Central Committee with Tuanpai Backgrounds Who Serve as Ministers in
the State Council, as of January 2016
7-9 Representation of Leaders with Tuanpai Background in Important Leadership Bodies, as of
January 2014
7-10 Prominent Tuanpai Leaders on the 18th Central Committee
8-1 Xi Jinping’s Friends and Protégés before His Tenure in Zhongnanhai
8-2 Xi Jinping and the “Shaanxi Gang” in the National Leadership
8-3 Xi Jinping’s Protégés during His Tenure as a Local/Provincial Leader, as of May 2016
9-1 Current Politburo Members Who Meet the Age Qualifications for Promotion to the 19th
Politburo Standing Committee
9-2 The Prospects for Xi Jinping’s Protégés for the 19th Central Committee in 2017 and the Next
State Council in 2018
9-3 18th Central Committee Members’ Prospects for the Next Central Committee
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Preparations for this book began in the autumn of 2013, approximately one year after the Chinese
Communist Party’s seminal 18th Congress. By then, it was already clear that major shifts were under
way in China’s political framework, though the extent and direction of those changes remained
unclear. I owe my own understanding of and analysis on these changes—where they derive from and
what they might spell for the future—to a long list of individuals without whose creative thinking and
insights this book project would never have been possible.
The intellectual inspiration and mentorship that guided this study, however, date back to the late
1980s and early 1990s, when I had the privilege of studying under leading scholars in the China-
watching community. Although these academic gurus are no longer with us, their work continues to
serve as an important foundation for today’s scholarship. By standing on their shoulders, we can see
just a little farther and a little more clearly than we would otherwise be able to. For their direct
mentorship, I am grateful to Professor A. Doak Barnett; Arthur W. Hummel Jr., and James R. Lilley,
both former ambassadors to China; Professor Lucian W. Pye; Professor Michel Oksenberg; and
especially Professor Robert A. Scalapino, who advised my master’s thesis at the University of
California, Berkeley. I owe equally profound thanks to Professors Ho Ping-ti, Ray Huang, and Tang
Tsou for their groundbreaking works on Chinese elite studies, though I regret that I never worked with
them directly.
In parsing the dimensions of contemporary Chinese politics, I benefited from frequent thought-
provoking discussions with foremost leaders and thinkers in the United States. For generously sharing
their time, observations, and insights with me, I extend my heartfelt thanks to Henry Kissinger, Henry
Paulson Jr., William Cohen, Stephen Hadley, Ambassador Carla Hills, Ambassador Robert B.
Zoellick, Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Ambassador James Sasser, Ambassador Gary F. Locke,
Barbara H. Franklin, Senator Mark Kirk, and Congressman Rick Larsen.
This book’s structure took shape under the feedback and guidance of Michael O’Hanlon, my
colleague at the Brookings Institution, where he is the director of research for the Foreign Policy
program and the co-director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. Michael
inspected the manuscript with his characteristic thoroughness, clarity, and precision. His detailed
comments and suggestions guided major improvements at both the micro and macro levels. Bruce