Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

160 Pages·2013·2.59 MB·English

Chinese
Anti-Ship
Ballistic
Missile
(ASBM) Development:
Drivers, Trajectories and
Strategic Implications
By Andrew S. Erickson
CHINESE ANTI-SHIP BALLISTIC
MISSILE (ASBM) DEVELOPMENT:
DRIVERS, TRAJECTORIES AND
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

By Andrew S. Erickson

May 2013
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“We are continentalists. Now guided missiles are well developed. Installed on shore,
they can hit any target, and there is no need to build a big navy.”
- Vice Premier Zhang Chunqiao addressing the Central Military Commission (1972)

“Whatever the enemy fears most, that is what we should develop.”
- President Jiang Zemin as quoted by General Zhang Wannian (1999)

“When many carrier-borne aircraft are used in continuous air strikes against our coast,
in order to halt the powerful air raids, the enemy’s core carrier should be struck as with
a ‘heavy hammer’.”
- Science of Second Artillery Campaigns (2004)

“Since the introduction of nuclear weapons, all the major nuclear powers have
developed ballistic missile warning systems against possible nuclear attacks, and there
has not been a single precedent of a major nuclear power attacking another with
ballistic missiles.”
- Huo Fei and Luo Shiwei, Modern Ships (2008)

“The queen of the American fleet, and the centerpiece of the most powerful Navy the
world has ever seen, the aircraft carrier, is in danger of becoming like the battleships it
was originally designed to support: big, expensive, vulnerable—and surprisingly
irrelevant to the conflicts of the time.”
- Captain Henry J. Hendrix, U.S. Navy (2013)
Table of Contents

I. Executive Summary..............................................................................1(cid:3)
II. Key Judgments.....................................................................................4(cid:3)
III. Current Status of the DF-21D ASBM...........................................10(cid:3)
IV. Background and Motivations for the ASBM Program.....................27(cid:3)
VI. Constructing a System of Systems.....................................................83(cid:3)
VII. Conclusion...................................................................................118(cid:3)
VIII. Appendix A: Knowledge Gaps and Key Questions.....................134(cid:3)
IX. Appendix B: Post-1996 ASBM Publication Boom......................140(cid:3)
X. Appendix C: Chinese Analysis of the Pershing II.........................143(cid:3)
About the Author................................................................................148(cid:3)
Acknowledgements................................................................................149(cid:3)
List of Figures and Tables

Table 1: Potential Indicators of Chinese ASBM Innovation....................26
Table 2: Chinese ASBM Development Timeline.....................................41
Table 3: Principal Chinese Generalist Publications Surveyed....................55
Figure 1: ABSM Publications by Year, 1996–2009..............................74
Figure 2: Selected ASBM Articles, 1997–2002.....................................76
Figure 3: Selected ASBM Articles, 2006–2008.....................................79
Table 4: Yaogan Satellites Launched to Date........................................95
Table 5: Beidou Satellites Launched to Date.......................................101
List of Acronyms

A2/AD Anti-Access, Area Denial

ASBM Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare

ASCM Anti-ship Cruise Missile

AMS Academy of Military Science

AWACS Airborne Warning and Control System

BMD Ballistic Missile Defense

C4ISR Command, Control, Communications, Computers,
Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance

CASC China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation

CASIC China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation

CBERS China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite

CEP Circular Error Probable

CMC Central Military Commission

CNSA China National Space Administration

CSG Carrier Strike Group

CSIC China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation

CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies

DMC Disaster Monitoring Constellation

DOD U.S. Department of Defense

DOT&E Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (U.S.)
ELINT Electronic Intelligence

EO Electro-Optical

FOC Full Operational Capability

GAD General Armaments Department

GSD General Staff Department

INF Treaty Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty

ISR Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance

IOC Initial Operational Capability

KKV Kinetic Kill Vehicle

MaRV Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle

MR Military Region

MRBM Medium-Range Ballistic Missile

NASIC National Air and Space Intelligence Center

NOSS Naval Ocean Surveillance System

NSB National Security Bureau (Republic of China, Taiwan)

ONI Office of Naval Intelligence (U.S.)

OTH Over-the-Horizon

PLA People’s Liberation Army

PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force

PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy

PNT Positioning, Navigation and Timing

RORSAT Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite
RV Reentry Vehicle

SAR Synthetic-Aperture Radar

SOC Science of Campaigns

SRBM Short-Range Ballistic Missile

SSAC Science of Second Artillery Campaigns

SSBN Ballistic Missile Submarine, Nuclear-Powered

SSGN Guided Missile Submarine, Nuclear-Powered

SSN Attack Submarine, Nuclear-Powered

TBM Theater Ballistic Missile

TEL Transporter-Erector-Launcher

UAV Unmanned Arial Vehicle

UUV Unmanned Underwater Vehicle