China's Past, China's Future

249 Pages·2004·5.87 MB·English

by  Vaclav Smil

China’s Past, China’s Future
China has a population of 1.3 billion people, which puts strain on her natural
resources. This volume, by one of the leading scholars on the earth’s biosphere,
is the result of a lifetime of study on China, and provides the fullest account yet
of the environmental challenges that China faces.
The author examines China’s energy resources, their uses, impacts and
prospects, from the 1970s oil crisis to the present day, before analyzing the key
question of how China can best produce enough food to feed its enormous
population. In answering this question the entire food chain – the environmental
setting, post-harvest losses, food processing, access to food and actual nutritional
requirements – is examined, as well as the most effective methods of agricultural
management. The final chapters focus upon the dramatic cost to the country’s
environment caused by China’s rapid industrialization. The widespread environ-
mental problems discussed include:
• water and air pollution
• water shortage
• soil erosion
• deforestation
• desertification
• loss of biodiversity
In conclusion, Smil argues that the decline of the Chinese ecosystem and environ-
mental pollution has cost China about 10 per cent of her annual GDP.
This book provides the best available synthesis on the environmental conse-
quences of China’s economic reform program, and will prove essential reading to
scholars with an interest in China and the environment.
Vaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor in the Faculty of Environment,
University of Manitoba, Canada. He is widely recognized as one of the world’s
leading authorities on the biosphere and China’s environment. He is the author
of many books, including The Earth’s Biosphere, Enriching the Earth, Feeding the World
and China’s Environment.
Asia’s transformations
Edited by Mark Selden
Binghamton University and Cornell University, USA
The books in this series explore the political, social, economic and cultural conse-
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contemporary, it also looks back to analyse the antecedents of Asia’s contested rise.
This series comprises several strands:
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titles will be published in hardback and paperback. Titles include
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The Resurgence of East Asia Political Economy
500, 150 and 50 Year Perspectives Carl A. Trocki
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Edited by Charles K. Armstrong Edited by Tak-Wing Ngo
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Edited by Chien-min Chao and and Asia
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city from multiple perspectives emblematic of the author’s own deep familiarity
with the distinctive faces of the city, its history, society, culture, politics and
economics, and its evolving position in national, regional and global frameworks.
While most volumes emphasize urban developments since the Second World
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contemporary. Thematic and comparative volumes address such themes as
urbanization, economic and financial linkages, architecture and space, wealth
and power, gendered relationships, planning and anarchy, and ethnographies in
national and regional perspective. Titles include
Hong Kong Beijing in the Modern World
Global City David Strand and Madeline Yue Dong
Stephen Chiu and Tai-Lok Lui
Bangkok
Shanghai Place, Practice and Representation
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Jeff Wasserstrom
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Carl Trocki
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Titles include
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Edited by K. C. Ho, Randolph Kluver Nanette Gottlieb
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Edited by Chin-Chuan Lee “A Fleeting, Passing Phase”
Internationalizing the Pacific The American Occupation of
The United States, Japan and the Japan and Okinawa *
Institute of Pacific Relations in War Literature and Memory
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Tomoko Akami
Koreans in Japan
Critical Voices from the Margin
Edited by Sonia Ryang * now available in paperback
Critical Asian scholarship is a series intended to showcase the most important indi-
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restricted to any particular discipline, theoretical approach or geographical
expertise.
China’s Past, China’s Future Women and the Family in
Energy, Food, Environment Chinese History
Vaclav Smil Patricia Buckley Ebrey
China Unbound Southeast Asia
Evolving Perspectives on the A Testament
Chinese Past George McT. Kahin
Paul A. Cohen
China’s Past,
China’s Future
Energy, food, environment
Vaclav Smil
First published 2004
by RoutledgeCurzon
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001
Simultaneously published in the UK
by RoutledgeCurzon
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2004.
RoutledgeCurzon is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group

© 2004 Vaclav Smil

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording,
or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Smil, Vaclav.
China’s past, China’s future: energy, food, environment/Vaclav Smil.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. China–Environmental conditions. 2. Power resources–China. 3. Food
supply–China. I. Title.
GE160.C6C63 2003
304.2'8'0951–dc21
2003006064
ISBN 0-203-56320-4 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 0-203-33853-7 (Adobe eReader Format)
ISBN 0–415–31498–4 (hbk)
ISBN 0–415–31499–2 (pbk)
For is and is-not come together;
Hard and easy are complementary;
Long and short are relative;
High and low are comparative;
Pitch and sound make harmony;
Before and after are a sequence.
Laozi, Dao de jing

Contents
List of illustrations xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xiv
List of abbreviations xvi
1 Introduction: China’s biophysical foundations 1
My Chinese experiences 1
Challenges of understanding 4
Interdisciplinary perspectives 7
2 Energy 9
Half a century of advances 9
The continuing importance of traditional energies 27
A failed strategy 42
From a new Saudi Arabia to concerns about oil security 52
A remarkable shift in energy intensities 60
3 Food 72
The world’s greatest famine 73
From subsistence to satiety 87
Dietary transitions 99
Nitrogen in China’s agriculture 109
Can China feed itself? 120
4 Environment 141
Attitudes and constraints 142
The first of the five elements 152
China’s environment and security 168
The cost of China’s environmental change 178
Megaprojects and China’s environment 190