China‘s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, October 2018

72 Pages·2019·1.9 MB·English

by  Center for Macroeconomic Research

Current Chinese Economic Report Series
China’s
Macroeconomic
Outlook
Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report,
October 2018
Current Chinese Economic Report Series
Editorial Board
Editorial Staff
Lianshui Li, Zhanyuan Du, Zaiwu Gong, Caihua Yu, Caihong Zhou, Jun Lin,
Wei Sun, Changping Xu, Minjie Wu, Nian Zhong, Feixue Zhou, Changkai Wang,
Mingyang Zhang, Yulin Chen, Zhonghua Cheng
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11028
Center for Macroeconomic Research
’
China s Macroeconomic
Outlook
Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report,
October 2018
’
By the China s Quarterly Macroeconometrtic
Model (CQMM) Team
123
Centerfor Macroeconomic Research
Xiamen University
Xiamen, Fujian, China
ISSN 2194-7937 ISSN 2194-7945 (electronic)
CurrentChinese EconomicReport Series
ISBN978-981-13-6076-3 ISBN978-981-13-6077-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-6077-0
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018930244
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Preface
This report is a partial result of the China’s Quarterly Macroeconometric Model
(CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic
Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research
Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of
Education of China, focusing on China’s economic growth and macroeconomic
policy. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for the purpose of short-term
forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.
Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to
release forecasts for China’ major macroeconomic variables. Since July 2006, 24
quarterly reports on China’s macroeconomic outlook have been presented and 11
annual reports have been published.
This 25th quarterly report was presented at the Forum on China’s
Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 25, 2018.
ThisconferencewasjointlyheldbySOASLondonUniversity,XiamenUniversity,
and Economic Information Daily in London, UK.
Xiamen, China Center for Macroeconomic Research
Xiamen University
v
Acknowledgements
According to the Chinese Pinyin order of their names, the 110 experts who joined
this questionnaire survey were: Bai Peiwen, Chang Xin, Chen Changbing,
ChenGong,ChenHeng,ChenJianbao,ChenJinmei,ChenKunting,ChenLangnan,
Chen Lei, Chen Menggen, Chen Shoudong, Chen Yanbin, Chen Zhiyong,
Dai Kuizao, Deng Xiang, Dong Ximiao, Dong Zhiyong, FanConglai, Fan Ziying,
Gao Bo, Guo Qiyou, Guo Xibao, Guo Xiaohe, Guo Zhiyi, Han Zhaozhou, He
Jingtong,HuRidong,HuangJianhui,HuangXianfeng,JianXinhua,JiangYongmu,
Li Chunqi, Li Haizheng, Li Jianwei, Li Jun, Li Junsheng, Li Shi, Li Xuesong,
Li Yingdong, Lin Xuegui, Liu Jianping, Liu Jinquan, Liu Qiongzhi, Liu Shiguo,
Liu Xiaoxin, Liu Zhibiao, Ma Ying, Peng Shuijun, Peng Suling, Chu Wan-wen,
RenBaoping,RenRuoen,ShaoYihang,ShenKunrong,Shenlisheng,ShiJinchuan,
Su Jian, Sun Wei, Qin Wei, Tang Jijun, Wang Tongsan, Wang Yida, Wang
Guocheng, Wang Jiping, Wang Junbo, Wang Liyong, Wang Shusheng, Wang
Yanxing, Wang Yuesheng, Wen Chuanhao, Wu Kaichao, Wu Xinru, Xian
Guoming,XiePan,XuBin,XuWenbin,YanPing,YangChengyu,YangCuihong,
Yao Huiqin, Ye Chusheng, Yi Xianrong, Yin Xingmin, Yu Li, Yu Zuo, Yuan
Fuhua, Zang Xuheng, Zeng Wuyi, Zhang Fan, Zhang Hongliang, Zhang Liqun,
Zhang Liancheng, Zhang Long, Zhang Mingzhi, Zhang Ping, Zhang Shuguang,
Zhao Changhui, Zhao Xindong, Zhao Zhenquan, Zhao Zhijun, Zheng Chaoyu,
ChengYuk-Shing,ZhongChunping,ZhouLiqun,ZhouZejiong,ZhuBaohua,Zhu
Jianping,Zhu Qigui,and Zhuang Zongming.
The experts who joined this questionnaire survey are from institutions like
Department of Macroeconomic Research of DRC (Development Research Center
of the State Council), Center for Forecasting Science of CAS (Chinese Academy
of Sciences), Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science of CAS, Institute of
Finance and Banking of CASS, Institute of Economics of CASS, Institute of
Quantitative and Technical Economics of CASS, National Academy of Economic
Strategy of CASS, Institute of World Economy and Politics of CASS, Ministry of
Commerce, Ministry of Finance, Hengfeng Bank, Minsheng Bank, The
Export-ImportBankofChina,ChinaBankingAssociation,TaiwanAcademiaSinica,
vii
viii Acknowledgements
Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, Tianze Institute of Economic
Research and universities like Xiamen University, Shanghai University of
InternationalBusinessandEconomics,theUniversityofHongKong,FujianNormal
University, Liaoning University, Zhejiang University of Technology, Lingnan
College of Zhongshan University, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,
BeijingNormalUniversity,JilinUniversity,RenminUniversityofChina,Zhongnan
UniversityofEconomicsandLaw,ZhejiangUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,
SichuanUniversity,PekingUniversity,NanjingUniversity,ShanghaiUniversityof
FinanceandEconomics,WuhanUniversity,EastChinaNormalUniversity,Lanzhou
University, Jinan University, Nankai University, Huaqiao University, Hunan
University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Central University of Finance and
Economics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, National Taiwan University, Northwest
University, Beihang University, Zhejiang University, Guangxi University, Tianjin
UniversityofCommerce,CityUniversityofHongKong,ChongqingTechnologyand
Business University, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Shaanxi
NormalUniversity,ChinaEuropeInternationalBusinessSchool,FudanUniversity,
Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Shandong University, Hong Kong
Baptist University, Capital University of Economics and Business, Huazhong
UniversityofScienceandTechnology,AnhuiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,
Shanghai Jiao Tong University, The Hong Kong University of Science and
Technology.
Finally, we thank for the active participation and insights of these experts
mentioned above sincerely.
Grants: The major projects of China National Social Science Foundation
(15ZDC011, 13&ZD029), the major research projects of philosophy and social
sciencesofChina’sMinistryofEducation(16JZD016,15JZD016,14JZD011),the
key research projects of the Key Research Institutions of Humanities and Social
Sciences of China’s Ministry of Education (18JJD79007, 18JJD790008,
17JJD790014), the general project and the youth project of China National Social
Science Foundation (17BJY086, 15BJL008), the youth project of China Natural
Science Foundation (71503222).
Contents
1 China’s Economic Performance in the First Half of 2018. . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 GDP Growth Declined Slightly, and Consumption Was
Still the Main Driver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Consumption Growth Slowed Down, and Motor Vehicles
Consumption Became the Main Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 The Growth of Investment in Manufacturing Edged up, While
the Growth of Infrastructure Investment Declined Significantly
and that of Investment in Real Estate Development Maintained
Stable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4 The Trade Surplus Shrunk Significantly, While the Trade
Surplus with the US Kept Rising. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.5 The CPI Remained Low and the PPI Rebounded Slightly. . . . . . . 11
1.6 The Grow Rate of M2 Hit a New Low, and Shrinking
Non-standard Financing Suppressed Social Financing. . . . . . . . . . 12
1.7 The Growth Rate of Fiscal Revenues Was Relatively High,
and that of Land Transfer Income Continued to Rise . . . . . . . . . . 13
Reference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2 Quarterly Forecast for 2018–19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1.1 GDP Growth of the US and the Euro Zone. . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1.2 The Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.1.3 The Broad Money Supply (M2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.2 Scenarios Planning to Simulate the Impact of Sino-US
Trade Disputes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.3 Quarterly Forecast of China’s Key Macroeconomic Indicators
in 2018–19. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.3.1 Projected GDP Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.3.2 Projected Growth of Exports and Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.3.3 Projected Growth of Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
ix
x Contents
2.4 Projected Growth of Other Key Macroeconomic Indicators. . . . . . 27
2.4.1 Projected Growth of Key Price Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.4.2 Projected Growth of Residents’ Income
and Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3 Policy Simulation: Effects of Changes in the Household Debt
Ratio on China’s GDP Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.1 Changes in the Household Debt Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2 The Transmission Path of the Household Debt Ratio
Affecting Macroeconomic Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
3.3 Scenario Simulation and Result Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4 Policy Implications and Suggestions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Appendix: Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China’s
Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2018.... ..... .... 49