China's Coming War with Asia PDF
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China’s Coming War with Asia China’s Coming War with Asia Jonathan Holslag Polity Copyright © Jonathan Holslag 2015 The right of Jonathan Holslag to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published in 2015 by Polity Press Polity Press 65 Bridge Street Cambridge CB2 1UR, UK Polity Press 350 Main Street Malden, MA 02148, USA All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-8824-4 ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-8825-1(pb) A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Holslag, Jonathan, author. China’s coming war with Asia / Jonathan Holslag. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-7456-8824-4 (hardcover) – ISBN 978-0-7456-8825-1 (pbk.) 1. China–Foreign relations–Asia. 2. Asia–Foreign relations–China. 3. National security–China. 4. National security–Asia. 5. China–Military policy. I. Title. DS33.4.C5H65 2015 355′.033051–dc23 2014030399 Typeset in 11 on 13 pt Sabon by Toppan Best-set Premedia Limited Printed and bound in the Great Britain by TJ. International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall The publisher has used its best endeavours to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate. Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been inadvertently overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition. For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com Contents Preface vi Maps ix 1 Asia’s China Dilemma 1 2 The Revolutionary Overture 18 3 The Normalization 40 4 Briefcase Revisionism 58 5 Peaceful Development 80 6 Elusive Harmony 102 7 Economic Power 120 8 The Contest for the Pacific 141 9 Another Great Power Tragedy 164 Notes 174 Index 199 Preface When some of my colleagues in China and Europe read the manuscript of this book, they asked: Why this dra- matic title? Honestly, I had my doubts too. I toyed, for instance, with less alarmist alternatives like “The impos- sible peace” or “Asia’s China dilemma.” But then, I thought, there is reason for concern, so why not be clear about it and make the argument boldly? Still, there are a few matters that I want to explain to readers in advance. First of all, this book does not hold China responsible for the tensions that simmer in Asia. I do advance the argument that China’s most important objectives are incompatible with the promise of a harmonious order, but several of these objectives are not necessarily more antago- nizing than the ambitions of other powers and remain even fairly defensive. Moreover, many other powers had or have had similar aspirations, albeit in different contexts. I also show that Chinese diplomacy is about flexibility without compromise, but that too can be said about many other countries. The intransigence certainly does not have much to do with the quality of Chinese diplomats. This might have been so in the past, but I learned to appreciate most of today’s officials as open-minded, inquisitive, Preface vii hardworking, and very dedicated to the wellbeing of their country – probably much more than to the Communist Party. So, do not expect this work to be a diatribe against China. I consider China a normally rising country, enter- taining normal ambitions, and facing the normal dilemmas of war and peace that so many other powers have grappled with in the past. This book follows a structural approach in examining the strategic landscape in Asia. An important concept in this regard is the security dilemma. If one country tries to advance its security and gains power, that inevitably por- tends a loss of power and security for another. Econo- mic ties, international organizations, and communication between countries, as this book also shows, can mitigate the security dilemma somewhat, but not sufficiently to prevent conflict if the power shift becomes very large. In the new Asian security dilemma, tensions are as much the consequence of China’s rise as of the efforts of other powers, like Japan and the United States, to defend their military predominance, their privileged position in eco- nomic networks, and their status. My warning of war does not imply that I take China’s rise for granted. China is altering the regional balance of power, but it is still behind the United States. I find many of the recent euphoric treatises about China ill-informed and ill-judged. China’s military capabilities have been modernized but are certainly not technologically superior. China’s economy grows in size, but it remains dangerously unbalanced. Many decision makers I saw questioned the leadership’s ability to redress this. The fierce anti- corruption campaign that President Xi Jinping unleashed at the time I was completing this book confirmed how daunting the domestic challenges are. China is a fragile power and so are the other Asian protagonists. This begs us to investigate which country is most able to address its shortcomings – or to make other countries pay for them. In the case of China, the sense of vulnerability partially explains its growing difficulties to strike a balance between viii Preface its own interests and the concerns of its neighbours. China also does not need to become a new superpower to scare its neighbours. Even if China were to falter, history teaches us that rising powers that see their growth stagnate often become more nationalistic and dangerous. For a student of international politics, it is thus not only a task to assess how strong or vulnerable countries are but also how they deal with it. I am fully aware that a book like this can come across as cynical: cynical because it seems to consider great power war as an inevitable tragedy, cynical also because it appears to minimize the progress made in our global society. I confess that I do not always feel comfortable with this myself and truly wish that I could be more optimistic. But if we really want to avoid another episode of major con- flict, is it not better to go to the heart of the ugly new security dilemmas, face reality, and work harder to change it? All too often I have the impression that the optimists of this world too easily find satisfaction in superficial changes: broadening commerce, for instance, or dialogue, or some modest military exchanges. Even realists these days have difficulty in accepting that war becomes imagin- able if their premises are applied to Asia. I remember several discussions with realists, where the majority of them offered a gloomy assessment, but rather unconvinc- ingly jumped to the conclusion that things would still be alright. So, perhaps, the bleak prospect of war could be a stronger incentive than misleading optimism to tackle the pressing dilemmas, to make earnest efforts to solve territo- rial disputes, and to come up with an economic narrative that offers an alternative to the new destructive race for industry and natural resources. War in Asia has become more likely. Recognizing this should be the first serious step in any effort to prevent it. Landen, 5 July 2014
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