China Superpower: Requisites for High Growth

234 Pages·1997·23.2 MB·English

by  Francis A. Lees (auth.)

CHINA SUPERPOWER
Also by Francis A. Lees
BANKING AND FINANCIAL DEEPENING IN BRAZIL (with James M. Botts and
Rubens Penha Cysne)
FOREIGN BANKING AND INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES
GLOBAL FINANCE
INTERNATIONAL BANKING AND FINANCE
INTERNATIONAL LENDING, RISK AND THE EUROMARKET'S (with Anthony
Angelini and Maximo Eng)
THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUDAN (with Hugh C.
Brooks)
China Superpower
Requisites for High Growth
Francis A. Lees
Alois J. Theis Professor of Global Finance
College of Business Administration
StJohn's University
New York
©Francis A. Lees 1997
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1997 978-0-333-63708-1
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of
this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or
transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with
the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988,
or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying
issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court
Road, London W1P OLP.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this
publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil
claims for damages.
First published by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
ISBN 978-1-349-39472-2 ISBN 978-0-230-37169-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230371699
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and
made from fully managed and sustained forest sources.
Transferred to digital printing 2000
To my four children, who keep me feeling young
Contents
List of Tables ix
List of Figures XIII
Preface XV
2 From Dragon to Superpower 2
2 Political Opening and Economic Reform II
3 Regional Development: Special Economic Zones 23
4 Emerging Superpower 39
5 Growth: Past, Present and Future 57
6 Development of Internal Markets 73
7 Banking, Money, and Credit 107
8 China's Emerging Capital Market 123
9 Strategic Trade 141
10 Foreign Investment Strategy 163
II China and the World 189
Notes 209
Index 223
vii
List of Tables
!.1 Labor Costs per Hour in Manufacturing, 1993 4
!.2 Per Capita Income Level, China Compared with Other
Developing Countries, 1982 and 1991 (US$) 7
1.3 Comparison of GDP per Capita, Using Standard Method
(Column 1), and New Word Bank Method (Column 2) 8
2.1 Conceptual Basis for Evaluation of China's Opening 14
2.2 Growth of Production in China, 1962-90 17
3.1 Comparison Data on Four Special Economic Zones
and Hainan 28
3.2 Composition of Rural Gross Social Product, 1980 and 1986 35
3.3 Structure of the Rural Labor Force, 1980, 1984, 1986 36
3.4 Contributory Share of TVP Sector in National GVIO 36
4.1 Four Requirements for Superpower Status 41
4.2 International Comparisons of China's Economic Growth
(average annual rates) 46
4.3 Greater China Zone Economic Growth, 1990-2025 48
4.4 Dragon Superpower, China in the 21st Century (China
GNP as a per cent of G7, US, Japan, Germany) 50
4.5 China and Japan Compared 53
5.1 Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 1980-93 (annual
per cent change) 58
5.2 Total Fixed Asset Investment: By Sources of Financing
(per cent of total fixed asset investment) 60
5.3 Technology Import and Growth Rate 65
5.4 Decomposition of China's Growth Rate 66
5.5 Projected Growth of China and G7 Countries to 2010 70
6.1 Reduction in Scope of Price Controls 74
6.2 Composition of Total Retail Sales Value by Ownership,
1960-91 (Y n I 00 million and per cent) 76
6.3 Growth of Domestic and Foreign Trade, 1985-92 78
6.4 China and Other Regional Trading Areas: Interregional
Trade Comparisons 79
6.5 Employment in Transport and Trade, China Compared
with Other Countries 88
6.6 Borrowing the Best 91
6.7 Annual Growth in Industrial Output (per cent, per annum) 92
IX
X List of Tables
6.8 Share of Industrial Output by Type of Enterprise 94
6.9 Number and Gross Output Value of Industrial Enterprises
by Ownership, 1985-91 98
6.10 Trends in the Branch Composition of China's Industrial
Output, 1970-90 (per cent) 99
6.11 Industrial Concentration Ratio for Selected Industries,
1986, 1987 101
6.12 Enterprise Group Typologies 104
7.1 Assets of Selected Chinese Banks, 1994 107
7.2 Major International Borrowings since 1990 120
8.1 Issues of Securities in China, 1981-91 (billions of
Chinese yuan) 127
8.2 A Share Quotas for Stock Exchange Listing 131
8.3 Evolving Status of Corporations 134
8.4 International Bond Issues by Chinese-based Borrowers
(US$ millions) 137
9.1 China's Total Foreign Trade as a per cent of National
Income, 1962-91; and as a per cent of GDP, 1988-93 144
9.2 China's Overall Trade Position, 1985-93 148
9.3 China's Imports, Income, and Propensity to Import
(billions of yuan) 148
9.4 China's Bilateral Trade with the US 150
9.5 China's Exports to the US, as a Source of Current Account
Credits, 1986-92 151
9.6 Structure of China's Merchandise Imports(%) 153
9.7 Structure of China's Merchandise Exports(%) 153
9.8 Export Growth, China, Greater China, and G5 Countries,
1991-2010 156
9.9 Comparative Economic Performance in China Economic
Area, Data as of 1991 157
9.10 Ten Mainland China Seaports 159
10.1 Financial Flows to the People's Republic of China,
1979-89 165
10.2 Asian Development Bank Cumulative Lending to the
People's Republic of China, December 1992 168
10.3 Inward Foreign Direct Investment, 1984-94 (US$ bn) 173
10.4 Degree of Concentration of Direct Foreign Investment in
Mainland China, Selected Countries (per cent of total DFI) 174
10.5 China's Motor Car Industry, 1995 and 2010 177
10.6 Required Infrastructure Investment Spending, to Year 2000 178
List of Tables xi
I 0.7 Selected Large Infrastructure Projects in the People's
Republic of China I 79
I 0.8 External Debt, Debt Ratios, and Terms of Borrowing,
1993 186
11.1 Nuclear Stockpiles 204