China Rising: Will the West Be Able to Cope?: The Real Long-term Challenge to the Rise of China — and Asia in General (World Scientific Series on 21st Century Business) PDF
Preview China Rising: Will the West Be Able to Cope?: The Real Long-term Challenge to the Rise of China — and Asia in General (World Scientific Series on 21st Century Business)
The real long-term challenge of the rise of China CHINA WILL THE WEST BE ABLE TO COPE? World Scientific Series on 21st Century Business ISSN: 1793-5660 Vol. 1 New Business in India: The 21st Century Opportunity by Paul Davies Vol. 2 Indian Economic Superpower: Fiction or Future edited by Jayashankar M. Swaminathan Vol. 3 China Rising: Will the West be able to Cope? The Real Long-Term Challenge of the Rise of China — and Asia in General by Jan Willem Blankert China Rising.pmd 2 9/2/2009, 7:37 PM 3 World Scientific Series on st Century 21 Business The real long-term challenge of the rise of China CHINA WILL THE WEST BE ABLE TO COPE? Jan Willem Blankert World Scientific NEW JERSEY • LONDON • SINGAPORE • BEIJING • SHANGHAI • HONG KONG • TAIPEI • CHENNAI Published by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224 USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite 401-402, Hackensack, NJ 07601 UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Blankert, Jan Willem. China rising : will the West be able to cope? : the real long-term challenge of the rise of China and Asia in general / by Jan Willem Blankert. p. cm. -- (World scientific series on 21st century business ; vol. 3) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13 978-981-283-795-0 ISBN-10 981-283-795-7 1. China--Economic conditions--2000– 2. United States--Economic conditions--2001– 3. Competition, International. I. Title. HC427.95.B53 2009 330.951--dc22 2009015972 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Copyright © 2009 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher. For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from the publisher. Typeset by Stallion Press Email: [email protected] Printed in Singapore. China Rising.pmd 1 9/2/2009, 7:37 PM b705_FM.qxd 4/24/2009 3:28 PM Page v CHINA RISING: Will the West be Able to Cope? The real long-term challenge of the rise of China — and Asia in general — is not about trade competition, investment, jobs or secu- rity; it is the environment, the global carbon footprint. What will be the effect of three to four billion people driving cars and turning on their heating or air conditioners? Is this sustainable? Jan Willem Blankert1 1I wrote most of this book in March–June, 2008, during a sabbatical year from the European Commission, as a senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore. The opinions expressed in this book are my own. v b705_FM.qxd 4/24/2009 3:28 PM Page vi TThhiiss ppaaggee iinntteennttiioonnaallllyy lleefftt bbllaannkk b705_FM.qxd 4/24/2009 3:28 PM Page vii Acknowledgements During the years of dealing with economic and political analysis and reform from Africa, Germany (after reunification) and Poland to the Balkan and China, I have been fortunate in being able to discuss reform policies, on numerous occasions, with many colleagues and friends. I am grateful to many analysts and to hands-on policy makers who worked with me on these issues and took time to speak to me — and also tothe participants who discussed with me at the seminars and conferences. I owe, furthermore, a great debt of gratitude to those who have taken their time through years of their lives for their insightful and well-informed articles and books on the subject. In this book, I refer explicitly to a number of them, but I am indebted to many other authors, not explicitly mentioned, in helping me form and refine my thoughts. I am also as grateful as every researcher in today’s world would to the creators of the Internet and Google possibly as significant inven- tions for mankind as the wheel. These tools, taken together, give all computer-literates immediate access to tremendous wealth of knowl- edge in a richly endowed library. Finally I am indebted to Klaus Kading and Bertin Martens, for their helpful suggestions on the draft manuscript. vii b705_FM.qxd 4/24/2009 3:28 PM Page viii TThhiiss ppaaggee iinntteennttiioonnaallllyy lleefftt bbllaannkk b705_FM.qxd 4/24/2009 3:28 PM Page ix Contents Acknowledgements vii About This Book: Main Issues xi I. In Perspective: Long-Term Economic Growth 1 I.1. Consequences of China’s Rise 1 I.2. Asia: Finally Getting There? 4 I.3. China’s Rise in Perspective 6 I.4. Long-Term Growth: Where Does It Come From? 9 I.5. Seven Pillars of Western Wisdom 12 and the Soft Infrastructure of Capitalism I.6. Democracy and Indicators of Good Governance 18 II. The West Competing with Low-Wage China 27 II.1. China’s Bilateral Trade Surpluses with the 27 EU and the US: One Big Difference II.2. Are Jobs and Wages in the West at Risk? 32 II.3. What Is It: Low-Wage Countries or Technology; 40 or Both? II.4. Globalisation: South/North Divide in the EU, 46 Left/Right in the US II.5. Could It Be? The EU Better Placed 51 to Face the Challenge? II.5.1. The EU–Lisbon Agenda 51 and Macro-Economic Stability II.5.2. The More Inclusive EU: Social Security 56 ix
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