China in the Middle East: the Wary Dragon

111 Pages·2016·1.764 MB·English

by  Arroyo Center.;Nader, Alireza;Scobell, Andrew

ARROYO CENTER
China in the Middle East
The Wary Dragon
Andrew Scobell, Alireza Nader
Prepared for the United States Army
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Preface
This research is part of the fiscal year 2014 project “China Pivots to
the Middle East.” The project examined China’s economic, political,
and military roles in the Middle East and provided insights to help
inform U.S. Army decisions regarding presence and force posture in
the region.
This report examines China’s interests in and strategy toward the
Middle East. Specifically, the report explores China’s economic, politi-
cal, and security role in the region, with particular attention to China’s
relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Finally, the report contemplates
the consequences of the Chinese strategy toward the Middle East for
the United States and, more specifically, the U.S. Army. The
research and writing of the report were completed in October 2014(cid:15)
This research was sponsored by Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, U.S.
Army, and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy,
Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the
RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development
center sponsored by the United States Army.
The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project
that produced this document is HQD136620.
iii

Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures .............................................................................vii
Summary ......................................................................... ix
Acknowledgments ............................................................... xi
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ...................................................................... 1
CHAPTER TWO
How Important to China Is the Middle East? ............................... 3
History .............................................................................. 3
Does China Have a Middle East Strategy?...................................... 5
China’s Interests and Objectives in the Middle East ........................... 7
Conclusion ........................................................................ 20
CHAPTER THREE
China Engages Saudi Arabia ................................................. 23
Chinese Instruments and Mechanisms ........................................ 24
Conclusion .........................................................................45
CHAPTER FOUR
China and Iran—Close but Complicated ...................................49
The Growth of Ties in the Wake of Iran’s Revolution ........................53
Military and Nuclear Cooperation ..............................................55
Economic and Energy Cooperation ............................................59
China and Sanctions ..............................................................61
v
vi China in the Middle East: The Wary Dragon
Relations Under Rouhani ....................................................... 64
Conclusion .........................................................................71
CHAPTER FIVE
Whither the Wary Dragon? Implications for the United States ........73
Mismatch in the Middle East....................................................74
The Elephant in the Room ...................................................... 77
Recommendations ................................................................79
Abbreviations .....................................................................85
References ....................................................................... 87
Figures
2.1. Top Exporters of Petroleum to China, by Value .................. 8
3.1. High-Level Chinese and U.S. Visits to Saudi Arabia ........... 28
3.2. Saudi Petroleum Exports to the United States and China ..... 36
3.3. SIPRI TIVs of Official Arms Exports to Saudi Arabia ......... 42
vii

Summary
This study examines China’s economic, political, and security roles in
the Middle East, focusing on China’s relations with Saudi Arabia and
Iran. The study explores what China is doing in the Middle East and
why. Once considered by Beijing as a peripheral and relatively insig-
nificant region of the world, the Middle East now looms much larger
in China’s national security calculus than ever before. Beijing’s unprec-
edented interest and involvement in the Middle East raises the question
of what is driving this activism. What explains China’s increased atten-
tion to the Middle East, and what are the implications of this develop-
ment for the United States?
The findings of this study suggest that Beijing is driven primarily
by economic interests, as well as an attempt to “rebalance” its domes-
tic, foreign, and security policies so that these are less skewed in favor
of eastern China and East Asia. Greater interest and involvement in
the Middle East are manifestations of growing dependence on energy
resources from the region and Chinese efforts to “march west” into
Central Asia and beyond. With the launch of the New Silk Road initia-
tive, officially announced by President Xi Jinping in September 2013,
Beijing’s Middle East strategy was subsumed under a grand and highly
ambitious effort to build the overland Silk Road Belt and the Maritime
Silk Road linking China to the Middle East and beyond. While coun-
tering the United States is a factor, it is not the central driver of China’s
Middle East strategy.
This report recommends that the United States welcome some
expanded Chinese security engagement in the Middle East. Indeed,
given the region’s vital importance to China’s economy and China’s
ix