Table Of Content

China Fragile Superpower This page intentionally left blank China Fragile Superpower Susan L. Shirk 2007 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2007 by Susan L. Shirk Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shirk, Susan L. China: fragile superpower / by Susan L. Shirk. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-530609-5 1. Nationalism—China. 2. China—Politics and government—2002– I. Title. JC311.S525 2007 320.951—dc22 2006027998 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper For Sam, Lucy, and David Popkin This page intentionally left blank Contents Acknowledgments ix 1 Strong Abroad but Fragile at Home 1 2 China’s Economic Miracle 13 3 Domestic Threats 35 4 The Echo Chamber of Nationalism: Media and the Internet 79 5 The Responsible Power 105 6 Japan: “When the Chinese People Get Angry, the Result Is Always Big Trouble” 140 7 Taiwan: “A Question of Regime Survival” 181 8 The United States: “External Troubles Can Become Internal Troubles” 212 9 China’s Weakness, America’s Danger 255 Appendix: Chinese and Japanese Periodicals 271 Notes 273 Index 311 This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments Ibegan writing this book as a fellow at the Center for Advanced Stud- ies in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford, California, during the 2004– 05 academic year. I am grateful to the Center staff (especially Kathleen Much), the other fellows, and Don Lamm for encouraging my interest in writing for a broader audience beyond academia. This aspiration became reality thanks to my research assistant, Yu Zheng, my agent, Jill Marsal, of the Djikstra Agency, and my editors at Oxford University Press—Peter Ginna, who edited the manuscript, Tim Bartlett, Dedi Felman, Tim Bent, and the copyeditor, Paula Cooper. The intellectual stimulation and per- sonal support provided by colleagues and staff at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego (especially Peter Cowhey, Stephan Haggard, and Barry Naughton), the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Coopera- tion, and the U.S. government greatly contributed to the book. I also wish to thank Jeffrey Bader, Tai Ming Cheung, Thomas Christensen, and An- drew Walder for their helpful comments on the manuscript, and to Alastair Iain Johnston for sharing his unpublished research with me. My husband, Sam Popkin, and my children, Lucy Popkin and David Popkin (the new- est China hand in the family), provided loving encouragement and good advice every step of the way. Finally, I am deeply grateful to the many Chinese government offi- cials, military officers, scholars, think-tank experts, journalists, and stu- dents I interviewed for informing me and my readers about China’s domestic situation and foreign policy.