CHINA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS Series on Contemporary China (ISSN: 1793-0847) Series Editors: Joseph Fewsmith (Boston University) Zheng Yongnian (East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore) Published* Vol. 10 Discontented Miracle: Growth, Conflict, and Institutional Adaptations in China edited by Dali L Yang Vol. 11 China’s Surging Economy: Adjusting for More Balanced Development edited by John Wong & Wei Liu Vol. 12 Tobacco Control Policy Analysis in China: Economics and Health edited by Teh-Wei Hu Vol. 13 China's Science and Technology Sector and the Forces of Globalisation edited by Elspeth Thomson & Jon Sigurdson Vol. 14 Migration and Social Protection in China edited by Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth Vol. 15 China’s Reforms at 30: Challenges and Prospects edited by Dali L Yang & Litao Zhao Vol. 16 Political Booms: Local Money and Power in Taiwan, East China, Thailand and the Philippines by Lynn T White Vol. 17 Politics of China’s Environmental Protection: Problems and Progress by Chen Gang Vol. 18 Oil in China: From Self-Reliance to Internationalization by Lim Tai Wei Vol. 19 China’s Elite Politics: Governance and Democratization by Bo Zhiyue Vol. 20 China’s New Social Policy: Initiatives for a Harmonious Society edited by Zhao Litao & Lim Tin Seng Vol. 21 Oil and Gas in China: The New Energy Superpower’s Relations with Its Region by Lim Tai Wei Vol. 22 China and The Global Economic Crisis edited by Zheng Yongnian & Sarah Y. Tong *To view the complete list of the published volumes in the series, please visit: http://www.worldscibooks.com/series/scc_series.shtml Lixi - China and the Global Economic.pmd 2 3/22/2010, 7:32 PM Series on Contemporary China – Vol. 22 CHINA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS edited by Zheng Yongnian & Sarah Y Tong (East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore) World Scientifi c NEW JERSEY • LONDON • SINGAPORE • BEIJING • SHANGHAI • HONG KONG • TAIPEI • CHENNAI Published by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224 USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite 401-402, Hackensack, NJ 07601 UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. CHINA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS Series on Contemporary China — Vol. 22 Copyright © 2010 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher. For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from the publisher. ISBN-13 978-981-4287-70-8 ISBN-10 981-4287-70-9 Typeset by Stallion Press Email: [email protected] Printed in Singapore. Lixi - China and the Global Economic.pmd 1 3/22/2010, 7:32 PM b856_FM.qxd 1/13/2010 11:19 AM Page v FA Contents List of Contributors vii Introduction 1 by ZHENG Yongnian and Sarah Y TONG 1. China’s Economy 2008 and Outlook for 2009: 11 Crisis of a Sharp Slowdown by John WONG 2. Recession Averted? China’s Domestic Response 25 to the Global Financial Crisis by YANG Mu and LIM Tin Seng 3. China’s Decisive Response to the Economic 47 Crisis Bears Fruits by Sarah Y. TONG 4. Pearl River Delta in a Crisis of Industrialisation 67 by HUANG Yanjie and CHEN Shaofeng 5. Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Pearl River 89 Delta and Yangtze River Delta Regions by YU Hong v b856_FM.qxd 1/13/2010 11:19 AM Page vi FA vi Contents 6. Taiwan’s Economy in the Financial Crisis and 113 Its Outlook by ZHAO Hong 7. Hong Kong’s Economy on the Road to Recovery? 137 by ZHANG Yang 8. Financial Crisis Offers Respite for the Macao Economy 159 by ZHANG Yang and Fung KWAN 9. China’s Trade Prospects and China-ASEAN 179 Trade Relations by Sarah Y. TONG and CHONG Siew Keng 10. Sino-South Korean Bilateral Trade in the 213 Current Economic Crisis by ZHOU Shengqi 11. Ascendance of China’s New Left Amidst the 241 Global Financial Crisis by BO Zhiyue and CHEN Gang 12. Will Social Stability in China be Undermined in the 259 Financial Crisis? by ZHAO Litao and HUANG Yanjie 13. The International Financial Crisis and China’s 275 External Response by ZHENG Yongnian and LYE Liang Fook Index 293 b856_FM.qxd 1/13/2010 11:19 AM Page vii FA List of Contributors BO Zhiyue is a Senior Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore. He obtained his Bachelor of Law and Master of Law from Peking University and Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. He taught at Beijing University, Roosevelt University, the University of Chicago, American University, St. John Fisher College, Tarleton State University, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He is a recipient of the Trustees’ Distinguished Scholar Award at St. John Fisher College and the inaugural holder of the Joe and Theresa Long Endowed Chair in Social Science at Tarleton State University. His research interests include China’s elite politics, Chinese provincial leaders, central–local relations, and cross-strait relations. He is the author of a trilogy on China’s political elites and elite politics, namely, Chinese Provincial Leaders: Economic Performance and Political Mobility since 1949 (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2002), China’s Elite Politics: Political Transition and Power Balancing (Singapore: World Scientific, 2007), and China’s Elite Politics: Governance and Democratization (Singapore: World Scientific, 2009). CHEN Gang is a Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore. He studied international relations and obtained his Ph.D. degree from the China Foreign Affairs University. He is the author of Politics of China’s Environmental vii b856_FM.qxd 1/13/2010 11:19 AM Page viii FA viii List of Contributors Protection: Problems and Progress (Singapore: World Scientific, 2009) and The Kyoto Protocol and International Cooperation against Climate Change (Beijing: Xinhua Press, 2008). His research papers have appeared in refereed journals such as China: An International Journal, East Asian Policy, Twenty-First Century, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, The Journal of East Asian Affairs, American Studies Quarterly, Journal of China Foreign Affairs University and the International Forum. His research interests include China’s domestic politics and foreign policy, environmental governance, international relations, and transnational cooperation against climate change. CHEN Shaofeng specialises in energy and environmental studies, Chinese political economy, and international political economy. He completed his PhD studies at the National University of Singapore in August 2008 and worked at the East Asian Institute (EAI) as a Research Officer and Visiting Research Fellow from October 2007 to April 2009. He has conducted his own research on China’s approach to energy security against the backdrop of its integration into the world economy in his stay at EAI. He also has over two years’ expe- rience in a consulting company, as well as further academic experience at the Beijing Foreign Studies University where he taught at the undergraduate level. He has authored more than 10 articles and book chapters. CHONG Siew Keng is a Research Assistant at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. She obtained her Master of Arts (Contemporary China) from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Her research interest includes ASEAN and China relations — politics and economy, cross-Strait relations, and North-East Asian economy and development. HUANG Yanjie obtained his Bachelor of Social Sciences in eco- nomics with Honours from the National University of Singapore in July 2008. His honours thesis deals with the evolution of China’s dualist economy and its policy implications. His current research interests cover a broad range of issues related to China’s economic b856_FM.qxd 1/13/2010 11:19 AM Page ix FA List of Contributors ix development. While focusing on the economic aspect of China’s development, he also takes deep interest in other aspects of the ongo- ing modernisation programme, such as political development, international relations, social changes, and institutional evolution in mainland China. A multi-linguist, Huang aspires to work on compar- ative political economy and other related fields of studies. Fung KWAN, Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Macau, is also on the Board of Directors of the US Chinese Economists Society (2008–2009). He was visiting fellow at Clare Hall, Cambridge and Official Visitor of the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge from February to July 2008. His research interests include development economics and macroeco- nomics. Currently, his research is on the rural labour market and productivity growth of China. His most recent article is “Agricultural Labour and the Incidence of Surplus Labour: Experience from China during Reform” in the Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies (forthcoming). LIM Tin Seng is a Research Officer at the East Asian Institute in the National University of Singapore. He received his M.A. in History from the National University of Singapore. His research focuses on the regional impact of China’s economic development and China’s foreign relations with developing countries. He is the co-editor of Harmony and Development: ASEAN–China Relations (World Scientific, 2007) and China’s New Social Policy: Initiatives for A Harmonious Society (World Scientific, 2009). LYE Liang Fook is a Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore. His research interests include China’s central–local relations, the mass media, leadership changes, and political legitimacy in China. He has also written extensively on Singapore’s relations with China including flagship cooperative proj- ects like the Suzhou Industrial Park and China-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city Project. Besides his academic work, he manages the Secretariat of Singapore’s Network of East Asian Think-Tanks