Changing Politics in Japan

203 Pages·2010·5.194 MB·English

by  Ikuo Kabashima, Gill Steel

Changing Politics in Japan

Changing Politics in Japan
Ikuo Kabashima and Gill Steel
Cornell University Press
Ithaca and London
Copyright © 2010 by Cornell University
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or
parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission
in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell Univer-
sity Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850.
First published 2010 by Cornell University Press
First printing, Cornell Paperbacks, 2010
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kabashima, Ikuo, 1947–
Changing politics in Japan / Ikuo Kabashima and Gill Steel.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8014-4876-8 (cloth : alk. paper) —
ISBN 978-0-8014-7600-6 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Japan—Politics and government—1989– 2. Political parties —
Japan. 3. Political culture—Japan. I. Steel, Gill, 1965– II. Title.
JQ1631.K23 2010
320.952— dc22 2009049506
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Cloth printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Paperback printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
List of Figures and Tables vii
Acknowledgments ix
Abbreviations xi
Note on Exchange Rates xiii
1. Introduction 1
2. Citizens and Elites in the Construction of the LDP System 9
3. Party and Voter Dealignment: The LDP System Disintegrates 28
4. Changing Media, Changing Politics 61
5. Citizens and the Prime Minister 86
6. Representation and Policymaking under LDP Administrations
in the Post-1955 System 105
7. Voters and the Democratic Party of Japan 128
8. Afterword: Where to Now? 150
Appendix A. The National Diet 155
Appendix B. ASSK Survey Questions and Coding 159
Appendix C. The Japan Election Study II 165
References 167
Index 181

Figures and Tables
Figures
2.1. The Evolution of Parties in Postwar Japan 12
3.1. The Urban Population Grows 30
3.2. The Rural Population Shrinks 30
3.3. Vote Choice in Early Postwar Elections 32
3.4. Malapportionment in Lower House Elections, 1958–1993 35
3.5. Party Identifi cation 57
3.6. Koizumi Seizes the Urban Vote, 2000–2005 58
4.1. The LDP Promotions Derby 70
4.2. Newspaper Coverage of the LDP Presidential Candidates,
April 2001 76
4.3. The Television Honeymoons of Koizumi, Mori, and Obuchi 79
4.4. Koizumi Junichiro 81
4.5. Newspapers’ Love of Koizumi and His Sound-Bite Politics 83
5.1. Koizumi’s Cabinet Support and Television Appearances 90
5.2. The Floating Vote, 2000–2001 92
7.1. DPJ Diet Members Become More Conservative, 1998–2003 135
7.2. Lower House Diet Members’ Ideological Self-Placements,
1998–2005 135
7.3. DPJ Diet Members’ Policy Preferences, 1998–2005 137
viii Figures and Tables
7.4. Lower House Diet Members’ Opinions, 2005 141
7.5. The Two Faces of Ozawa Ichiro 143
7.6. Lower House Election Results, 1996–2009 144
7.7. The Lower House Election, 2009 147
Tables
3.1. LDP Upper House Election Results, 1983–2007 49
3.2. The Declining Probability of the Median Voter
Choosing the LDP 52
Appendix 3.1. Infl uences on Voting 59
5.1. Voters’ Party Choice, 2000 and 2001 92
5.2. The Media and Koizumi’s Support 102
Appendix 5.1. The Variables 104
6.1. Themes and Concrete Proposals of Prime Ministers
Koizumi, Abe, and Fukuda 113
Acknowledgments
We have benefi ted greatly from discussions with many colleagues over
the years. We would particularly like to thank David Leheny for giving us
invaluable feedback above and beyond the call of duty.
Our sincere thanks go to the following people who provided spe-
cial assistance: Sugawara Taku, who allowed us to use some material on
recent House of Councillors elections from an article coauthored with
Kabashima Ikuo; Gregory Noble, for thoughtful discussions and the refer-
ences he suggested; Yamamoto Koji; Kanazawa Yuki for research assistance;
Robin LeBlanc; Sherry L. Martin; Lee Bong Yeong; Malinda Markham;
and Geoff Ng. We would also like to thank Samuel L. Popkin, James T.
Hamilton, Susan Shirk, Taniguchi Masaki, and Sean Richey for comments
on previous drafts of chapter 4. We are grateful to the 21st-century COE
program, Invention of Policy Systems in Advanced Countries, for fi nan-
cial support.
Many thanks go to Roger M. Haydon, our editor at Cornell University
Press, for brilliant advice. We are grateful also to the anonymous referee
and to all of the team at the Press for their excellent work editing our
manuscript.
Gill particularly thanks John C. Campbell, for advice and support and
for being a wonderful mentor. Gill’s colleagues and the administrative staff
in the Social Psychology Department at the Graduate School of Humani-
ties and Sociology, University of Tokyo, are always incredibly supportive.
Her warmest thanks also go to John Williams and to her family (yes, it’s
the same book).