Chance and the Sovereignty of God - The Works of John Frame and

370 Pages·2014·7.3 MB·English

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What if all events—big and small, good and bad—are governed by
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more than just blind chance? What if they are governed by God?
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In this theologically informed and philosophically nuanced introduction to the study N
of probability and chance, Vern Poythress argues that all events—including the D
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seemingly random or accidental—fall under God’s watchful gaze as part of his T
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eternal plan. Comprehensive in its scope, this book lays the theistic foundation for our
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scientific assumptions about the world while addressing personal questions about the A N D
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meaning and significance of everyday events. O
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“Learned and astute, this book demonstrates an absolute reliance on the authority of E S O V E R E I G N T Y
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God’s Word. This is the only way that nothing can be left to chance.” G
DOUGLAS WILSON, Senior Fellow of Theology, New St. Andrews College; Pastor, Christ N O F
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Church, Moscow, Idaho
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“The prolific Dr. Poythress has gifted us with a unique and uniquely needed work O
that is both mathematically adept and theologically deep. I know of no other work F

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that so thoroughly addresses the modern sense of chance in a deeply Reformed and
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philosophically oriented way.”
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D OUGLAS GROOTHUIS, Professor of Philosophy and Director of the Apologetics and
Ethics Master Degree, Denver Seminary
“Dr. Poythress has hit another one out of the park. This book will transform the way
A GOD-CENTERED APPROACH TO
you think about everything from quantum physics and weather forecasts to life insur-
PROBABILITY AND RANDOM EVENTS
ance and card games.”
JAMES N. ANDERSON, Associate Professor of Theology and Philosophy, Reformed
Theological Seminary, Charlotte; author, Paradox in Christian Theology
“Poythress shows in this book that the God of the Bible is in fact the foundation, both
of causation and of randomness in the world. I can’t imagine a better place to start
for readers interested in this subject matter.” P
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JOHN M. FRAME, J. D. Trimble Chair of Systematic Theology and Philosophy, Reformed Y
Theological Seminary, Orlando
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R V E R N S
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Vern S. Poythress (PhD, Harvard University; ThD, Stellenbosch University) is
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professor of New Testament interpretation at Westminster Theological Seminary, S P O Y T H R E S S
where he has taught for over 30 years. In addition to earning six academic degrees,
he is the author of numerous books on biblical interpretation, language, and science,
including Redeeming Science, Redeeming Sociology, and Logic.
CHRISTIAN THEOLOGY / PHILOSOPHY
ISBN-13: 978-1-4335-3695-3
ISBN-10: 1-4335-3695-1 00
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9 781433 536953 U.
“Learned and astute, this book on chance and probability demonstrates an absolute
reliance on the authority of God’s Word. This is the only way that nothing can be left
to chance.”
Douglas Wilson, Senior Fellow of Theology, New St. Andrews College; Pastor,
Christ Church, Moscow, Idaho
“The prolific Dr. Poythress has gifted us with a unique and uniquely needed work that
is both mathematically adept and theologically deep. I know of no other work that so
thoroughly addresses the modern sense of chance in a deeply Reformed and philosophi-
cally oriented way.”
Douglas Groothuis, Professor of Philosophy and Director of the Apologetics and
Ethics Master’s Degree, Denver Seminary
“Is this the go-to book for a biblical theological perspective on chance, coincidence,
randomness, risk, probability, prediction, and gambling? You bet it is! Dr. Poythress has
hit another one out of the park. This book will transform the way you think about ev-
erything from quantum physics and weather forecasts to life insurance and card games.”
James N. Anderson, Associate Professor of Theology and Philosophy, Reformed
Theological Seminary, Charlotte; author, Paradox in Christian Theology; What’s
Your Worldview?
“Back when I was a researcher in Systems Engineering and Operations Research, prob-
ability was my daily breath, so I was delighted to see this work. Not only was this a fun
read for me, but I find in Vern Poythress a firm grasp of the mathematical, philosophical,
theological, and apologetic issues necessary to guide those who want to think clearly
on this topic—a topic which, because of its technicality, many will be daunted by. And
Poythress always has an eye for the helpful illustration!”
C. John Collins, Professor of Old Testament, Covenant Theological Seminary;
author, The God of Miracles, Science and Faith: Friends or Foes?
“Many think Calvinists simply reject the idea of chance, random events, and probabil-
ity. But that is not entirely true. My friend Vern Poythress shows in this book that the
God of the Bible—and of Calvin—is in fact the foundation, both of causation and of
randomness in the world. Poythress is well-suited to develop this argument, with doctor-
ates in both New Testament and mathematics, and as the author of important recent
books on logic and science. I do not fully understand the mathematics of this book, but
the theology is entirely biblical, and I can’t imagine a better place to start for readers
interested in this subject matter.”
John M. Frame, J. D. Trimble Chair of Systematic Theology and Philosophy,
Reformed Theological Seminary, Orlando
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CHANCE AND THE
SOVEREIGNTY
OF GOD
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C H A N C E A N D T H E
S O V E R E I G N T Y
O F G O D
A GOD-CENTERED APPROACH TO
PROBABILITY AND RANDOM EVENTS
VERN S. POY THRESS
WHEATON, ILLINOIS
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Chance and the Sovereignty of God:
A God-Centered Approach to Probability and Random Events
Copyright © 2014 by Vern S. Poythress
Published by Crossway
1300 Crescent Street
Wheaton, Illinois 60187
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or
otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, except as provided for by USA
copyright law.
Cover design: Matt Naylor
First printing 2014
Printed in the United States of America
Scripture quotations are from the ESV® Bible (The Holy Bible, English Standard Version®),
copyright © 2001 by Crossway. 2011 Text Edition. Used by permission. All rights reserved.
All emphases in Scripture quotations have been added by the author.
Trade paperback ISBN: 978-1-4335-3695-3
ePub ISBN: 978-1-4335-3698-4
PDF ISBN: 978-1-4335-3698-4
Mobipocket ISBN: 978-1-4335-3697-7
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Poythress, Vern S.
Chance and the sovereignty of God : a God-centered
approach to probability and random events / Vern Sheridan
Poythress.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-4335-3695-3 (tp)
1. Providence and government of God--Christianity.
I. Title.
BT135.P69 2014
231'.5—dc23 2013036218
Crossway is a publishing ministry of Good News Publishers.
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C O N T E N T S
Tables and Illustrations 9
Introduction: Experiences with Unpredictable Events 11
PART I
THE SOVEREIGNTY OF GOD
1 The Bible as a Source for Knowledge 19
2 God’s Sovereignty 23
3 Unpredictable Events 33
4 Disasters and Suffering 41
5 Human Choice 53
6 Small Random Events 63
7 Reflecting on Creation and Providence 71
8 God’s Sovereignty and Modern Physics 77
9 What Is Chance? 91
PART II
GOD AS THE FOUNDATION FOR CHANCE
10 Regularities and Unpredictabilities 101
11 Trinitarian Foundations for Chance 107
12 Responding to Chance 115
13 Chance in Evolutionary Naturalism 123
14 Chance and Idolatry 133
PART III
PROBABILITY
15 What Is Probability? 145
16 Predictions and Outcomes 155
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17 Theistic Foundations for Probability 161
18 Views of Probability 169
19 Subjectivity and Probability 179
20 Entanglement of Probabilities 189
21 Probabilistic Independence 197
22 Independence and Human Nature 203
23 Is God Probable? 213
PART IV
PROBABILITY AND MATHEMATICS
24 Pictures of Probability 221
25 Mathematical Postulates for Probability 229
26 Theistic Foundations for Some Properties of Probability 239
27 Limitations in Human Thinking about Events and Probabilities 249
28 Conclusion 257
APPENDICES
A Why Gambling Systems Fail 263
B The Real Problem with Gambling 279
C A Puzzle in Probability 283
D Interacting with Secular Philosophical Views of Probability 293
E Permutations and Combinations 303
F The Birthday Problem 315
G Diseases and Other Causes 321
H Proofs for Probability 329
I Statistics 333
J The Law of Large Numbers versus Gamblers 337
Bibliography 343
General Index 347
Scripture Index 353
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T A B L E S A N D
I L L U S T R A T I O N S
TABLES
26.1 Two Perspectives on Outcomes 240
A.1 Chances for Two Successive Bets 270
A.2 Average Losses through Doubling Bets 274
C.1 Quiz Show Strategies 286
C.2 Albert’s Chances 289
E.1 Outcomes Drawing Two Kings 305
E.2a Balls 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, and 8 Picked in First Trial 310
E.2b Balls 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 Picked in Second Trial 310
ILLUSTRATIONS
2.1 Deism and Theism 24
2.2 God’s Power in Creation 25
2.3 God’s Universal Control 31
3.1 God’s Control over Happenstance 39
4.1 God’s Control over Disasters 51
5.1 Analogy of Human Author 57
5.2 Analogy for Creativity 61
6.1 God’s Control over Tiny Events 68
8.1 God’s Universal Control 77
8.2 God’s Control over All Events, Great and Small 89
9.1 Frame’s Square 93
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