Carry That Weight: Improving European Strategic Airlift Capabilities

330 Pages·2007·1.37 MB·English

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Carry That Weight
Improving European Strategic Airlift
Capabilities
Katia Vlachos-Dengler
This document was submitted as a dissertation in March 2007 in partial fulfillment of
the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND
Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation
consisted of Stuart Johnson (Chair), Mark Lorell, and Greg Treverton.
The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that
have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee.
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PREFACE
This dissertation addresses the problem of the shortfall between the strategic airlift
capabilities which European Union requires if it is to fulfill the ambition to be a
credible security actor and the capabilities available to the major European nations
individually and collectively. It does so by identifying and describing the key factors
that influence decision-making on strategic airlift capabilities, in the context of various
policy options for doing so, as well as the barriers to the implementation of the most
cost-effective among the various options available. A key assertion of this
dissertation is that pooling of resources is the most cost-effective way to address
airlift capability shortfalls in a restrictive budgetary environment, but also the most
politically challenging to implement.
Improving European strategic airlift capabilities has received significant attention in
recent years in the context of NATO and the European Union. This research aims at
contributing to the debate and should be of interest to policymakers concerned with
improving European defense capabilities, as well as to academics and researchers
addressing that issue.
iii
CONTENTS
Preface...............................................................................................................iii
List of Tables......................................................................................................ix
Acknowledgments...............................................................................................x
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
I. The Policy Problem.........................................................................................1
II. Research Objectives, Scope and Approach..................................................6
1. Objectives and Research Questions........................................................6
2. Scope.......................................................................................................7
3. Approach..................................................................................................8
4. Structure – Chapter Outline.....................................................................9
CHAPTER TWO: BACKGROUND AND KEY ISSUES
I. European Security and Defense Policy and a European Rapid Reaction
Force..........................................................................................................10
II. European Strategic Airlift: Capability Issues...............................................16
III. European Strategic Airlift: Budgetary Issues...............................................23
IV. European Strategic Airlift: Political and Related Issues..............................24
V. Review of Previous Research on European Strategic Airlift ....................26
1. Research literature on the topic and related areas..................................27
a. What is the status of European strategic airlift capabilities?................27
b. What policy options are available for improving strategic airlift capabilities?
Are multinational/pooling solutions more cost-effective than other available
options?................................................................................................29
Multinational/pooling options................................................................30
General advantages and drawbacks of multinational arrangements...31
Examples of pooling.............................................................................35
2. Summary of what is known and not known about European strategic airlift
capabilities...............................................................................................37
CHAPTER THREE: FACTORS AFFECTING STRATEGIC AIRLIFT DECISION-MAKING -
METHODOLOGY
I. Review of Previous Methodologies..............................................................38
1. Overview and assessment of the research literature on methodologies for
analyzing factors that influence decisions on strategic airlift capabilities.38
a. Calculation of European strategic airlift requirements..........................38
b. Methodologies used to evaluate policy options for improving airlift capabilities
.................................................................................................................47
Literature on Europe.............................................................................47
Literature on the United States.............................................................49
Broader literature on evaluating multinational options.........................51
Joint forces...........................................................................................58
Alliances and new institutional economics...........................................59
2. Summary of what is known and not known about the methodologies to analyze
factors that affect strategic airlift decision-making and to evaluate relevant policy
options......................................................................................................60
iv
II. Approach......................................................................................................61
1. Research Objectives and Hypotheses.....................................................61
2. Methodology – Key Steps........................................................................62
STEP 1: Establish a European strategic airlift requirement.....................62
SUB-STEP 1a: Project strategic airlift capacity available in 2015.........63
STEP 2: Develop a framework for assessing key factors influencing decision-
making on airlift acquisition and use it to evaluate policy options available for
fulfilling the European strategic airlift requirement...................................64
National Options...................................................................................65
Multinational Options............................................................................65
Option Evaluation.................................................................................65
Economic Factors: Cost Trends........................................................66
Non-economic Factors......................................................................68
Evaluating Collective Options: the Economics of Pooling.................70
STEP 3: Summarize findings and draw conclusions................................72
CHAPTER FOUR: FACTORS AFFECTING STRATEGIC AIRLIFT DECISION-MAKING -
APPLICATION
STEP 1: Establish a European Strategic Airlift Requirement...........................73
SUB-STEP 1a: Project strategic airlift capacity available in 2015................73
STEP 2: Develop a framework for assessing key factors influencing decision-making
on airlift acquisition and use it to evaluate policy options available for fulfilling the
European strategic airlift requirement........................................................77
1. Ownership................................................................................................81
a. National ownership: Off-the-shelf procurement....................................81
b. Multinational ownership: co-development/co-production or joint off-the-shelf
procurement.............................................................................................86
2. Long-term leasing....................................................................................90
a. National leasing....................................................................................90
b. Joint leasing agreements.....................................................................93
3. Charter.....................................................................................................96
a. National charter....................................................................................96
b. Joint charter.......................................................................................101
4. Assured access agreements..................................................................104
a. National assured access agreements................................................104
b. Multinational assured access agreements.........................................109
Example: the Strategic Airlift Interim Solution (SALIS).......................110
5. Operational pooling/Pooled management of assets..............................114
a. Option description and evaluation......................................................114
b. Examples of pooled management of resources.................................121
Collectively purchased, owned and managed capability: AWACS.....121
Nationally owned, collectively managed airlift capability: the proposed NATO
Strategic Airlift Capability.......................................................................125
Centrallized management of airlift capabilities: the European Airlift Centre
...............................................................................................................126
STEP 3: Summarize findings and draw conclusions......................................135
v
CHAPTER FIVE: BARRIERS TO ACHIEVING EFFICIENT OUTCOMES – METHODOLOGY
I. Introduction................................................................................................141
II. Review of Literature on Barriers.................................................................142
1. What are the main barriers to improving European strategic airlift capabilities?
...............................................................................................................142
a. Literature on barriers to multinational defense cooperation...............142
Sovereignty concerns..........................................................................142
Organizational and institutional inertia and domestic politics..............143
Burden sharing problems....................................................................144
b. Broader literature on alliances............................................................146
2. How can one identify and analyze these barriers?................................149
a. Negotiations analysis.........................................................................149
Structure..............................................................................................149
Barriers................................................................................................153
Managing conflicts..............................................................................155
Building momentum............................................................................156
EU negotiations literature....................................................................157
b. Public choice theory...........................................................................158
3. How should pooling arrangements be designed and negotiated in order to
overcome or avoid barriers to implementation?.....................................159
a. Broader literature on designing strategies to overcome barriers to negotiated
agreement..............................................................................................159
b. Literature specific to European defense capabilities and related multinational
initiatives................................................................................................164
4. Summary of what is known and not known about the barriers linked to the
politics of strategic airlift and the methodologies for analyzing them.....166
III. Methodology: Framework for Analysis......................................................167
1. Research Questions and Hypothesis.....................................................167
2. Methodology – Key Steps......................................................................168
STEP 1: Diagnose the structure of the negotiation................................168
STEP 2: Identify barriers to negotiated agreement................................169
STEP 3: Identify avoidable barriers and process innovations that can achieve
breakthrough in the negotiation..............................................................170
Application of the framework to analyze and draw lessons from a case study
of the A400M transport aircraft program............................................171
STEP 4: Summarize findings and draw conclusions..............................173
CHAPTER SIX: BARRIERS TO ACHIEVING EFFICIENT OUTCOMES – CASE ANALYSIS
I. Case Study: The A400M Program.............................................................174
1. The History.............................................................................................174
The requirement and major milestones..................................................174
The engine.............................................................................................177
Developments and delays, uncertainties and setbacks.........................177
The case of Germany.............................................................................178
2. Analysis: The Politics of Negotiations....................................................183
STEP 1: Diagnose the structure of the negotiation................................183
A. Parties.............................................................................................183
B. Interests and stakes........................................................................184
1. Nations........................................................................................184
vi
2. European aerospace and defense industrial players: Airbus Military
Company and EADS..............................................................................191
3. The European Union as a strategic actor....................................192
4. The United States Administration................................................195
5. The U.S. aerospace and defense industry..................................196
C. Issues.............................................................................................199
D. Alternatives.....................................................................................201
Alternatives for European nations...................................................201
Alternatives for Airbus Military.........................................................201
E. Linkages.........................................................................................202
Negotiations among partner nations...............................................202
Negotiations within partner nations.................................................202
Negotiations between partner nations and third parties..................202
STEP 2: Identify key barriers to negotiated agreement..........................203
A. Structural barriers...........................................................................203
B. Strategic barriers............................................................................205
C. Psychological barriers.....................................................................206
D. Institutional barriers........................................................................206
E. Cultural barriers..............................................................................209
II. Lessons learned from the case study.......................................................209
1. General breakthrough factors................................................................209
2. Avoidable barriers..................................................................................213
3. Process innovations...............................................................................214
III. Epilogue: What future for the A400M?......................................................218
CHAPTER SEVEN: BARRIERS TO ACHIEVING EFFICIENT OUTCOMES – APPLICATION
I. The Negotiation..........................................................................................221
Background note: Current command arrangements for European operations
...............................................................................................................222
II. Application of the Methodology..................................................................223
STEP 1: Diagnose the structure of the negotiation....................................223
A. Parties.............................................................................................223
B. Interests and stakes........................................................................224
International Actors.........................................................................224
1. Nations........................................................................................224
2. International organizations..........................................................229
a. The European Union as a strategic actor................................229
b. NATO......................................................................................230
c. The European Defense Agency..............................................232
d. The European Airlift Centre.....................................................235
3. The European aerospace and defense industry.........................236
4. The United States Administration and defense establishment....237
Domestic Actors..............................................................................238
1. Political leadership......................................................................238
2. National defense establishment..................................................238
3. Broader political establishment...................................................240
4. Domestic aerospace and defense companies............................240
C. Issues.............................................................................................242
D. Alternatives.....................................................................................244
vii
Alternatives for European nations...................................................244
Alternatives for the European Union...............................................245
E. Linkages.........................................................................................245
Negotiations among participating nations.......................................245
Negotiations within partner nations.................................................247
Negotiations between participating nations and third parties..........247
STEP 2: Identify key barriers to negotiated agreement..........................248
A. Structural barriers...........................................................................248
B. Strategic barriers............................................................................254
C. Psychological barriers.....................................................................256
D. Institutional barriers........................................................................256
E. Cultural barriers..............................................................................258
STEP 3: Apply Lessons from the A400M Case......................................258
1. Avoidable barriers..........................................................................259
2. Process innovations.......................................................................265
STEP 4: Summarize findings and draw conclusions..............................272
CHAPTER EIGHT: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
I. Key Findings.............................................................................................274
II. Policy Implications.....................................................................................276
III. An Agenda for Future Research...............................................................280
APPENDIX
A. List of Interviews..........................................................................................A1
B. Cost Trends of Policy Options for Satisfying a European Strategic Airlift
Requirement ........................................................................................B1
C. List of Acronyms..........................................................................................C1
viii