Candidates and Voters: Ideology, Valence, and Representation in U.S Elections PDF
Preview Candidates and Voters: Ideology, Valence, and Representation in U.S Elections
CandidatesandVoters CandidatesandVotersextendsourunderstandingofvoting,elections, and representation by elaborating a simple theory of voting choice based on voters’ interest in policy and in the suitability of candidates to hold elective office (“leadership valence”).Voters’ choices must be understoodinthecontextofthechoicesbetweenopposingcandidates theyareofferedonthesetwodimensions.Drawingonextensiveanaly- sisofU.S.Houseraces,Stoneshowsthatalthoughvoterslacktheinfor- mationthatmanyanalystsassumetheyneedtofunctioninademocracy, theyaremostoftenabletochoosethebettercandidateonthepolicyand valencedimensions.Inaddition,candidates,whentheydecidewhether and how to run, anticipate the interests that drive voters. The book shows that elections tend to produce outcomes on policy and leader- ship valence consistent with voters’ interests,and challenges skeptical viewsofhowwelltheelectoralprocessworks. WalterJ.StoneisemeritusProfessorofPoliticalScienceattheUniver- sityofCalifornia,Davis.PriortojoiningtheUCDavisfaculty,hewas ProfessorattheUniversityofColorado,Boulder,andVisitingProfessor atStanfordUniversity. Candidates and Voters Ideology, Valence, and Representation in US Elections WALTER J.STONE UniversityofCalifornia,Davis UniversityPrintingHouse,Cambridgecb28bs,UnitedKingdom OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,ny10006,USA 477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,vic3207,Australia 4843/24,2ndFloor,AnsariRoad,Daryaganj,Delhi-110002,India 79AnsonRoad,#06-04/06,Singapore079906 CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof education,learningandresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781316510216 doi:10.1017/9781108225021 (cid:2)C WalterJ.Stone2017 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2017 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabySheridanBooks,Inc. AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary isbn978-1-316-51021-6Hardback isbn978-1-316-64960-2Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracy ofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication, anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain, accurateorappropriate. To Emma and Riley; Jesse and Kai; Lyle and Juniper. Contents ListofFigures pageix ListofTables xi Acknowledgments xiii Introduction 1 1 Candidates,VotingChoice,andElectionOutcomes 14 2 DesignandData:DistrictInformantsandtheStudyof CongressionalElections 52 3 PolarizationinCongressionalElectionsSince1952 72 4 IdeologicalProximity,Valence,andVoterChoice 84 5 CorrectVotingonProximityandValence 106 6 AnticipatedReactionsandChallengerEntry 122 7 TheProximityandValenceRulesinDistrictVoting 136 8 DistrictIdeologicalRepresentation 147 9 GettingitRight?ValenceandIdeologyinDistrict Representation 167 Conclusion 185 Appendix:IssuesintheUseofExpertInformants 205 References 211 Index 223 vii Figures 1.1 SpatialModelofCandidateandVoterIdeologicalPositions inDistrictj page16 1.2 HypotheticalUtilitiesfromProximityandValenceRules 35 1.3 HypotheticalUtilitiesfromProximityandValencewith VariableValenceWeights 37 1.4 ImplicationsofLeewayandAlignmentHypothesesfor CandidateDifferentials 44 3.1 Median-VoterandPartyModelsofDistrictRepresentation 75 3.2 RepresentativebyDistrictIdeologyinSelectedMidterm Elections 80 3.3 PartialCoefficientsonIncumbencyEstimatingEffectson IncumbentVoteShare,1952–2010 82 4.1 CandidateandPartyIdentifierIdeologicalDistributions 86 4.2 DistrictandCandidateIdeologicalPositionsforRandom SubsetofDistricts 86 4.3 DistributionsofCandidateValenceDifferentialsand IdeologicalCutPoints 88 4.4 ValenceDifferentialsandCandidateValenceScoresfor RandomSubsetofDistricts 89 4.5 EffectsofProximityandValenceDifferentialsonVoting ChoicebyPartyIdentification 94 4.6 EffectofProximityDifferentialbyAwarenessofCandidates’ IdeologicalPositions 96 4.7 EffectofProximityDifferentialbyAwarenessofParty IdeologicalPositions 97 ix
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