Can Physics Save Miami (and Shanghai and Venice, by Lowering the Sea)?

132 Pages·2019·12.943 MB·English

by  Edward Wolf

Can Physics Save Miami (and
Shanghai and Venice, by
Lowering the Sea)?

Can Physics Save Miami (and
Shanghai and Venice, by
Lowering the Sea)?
Edward Wolf
New York University Tandon School of Engineering, New York, USA
Morgan & Claypool Publishers
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ISBN 978-1-64327-428-7(ebook)
ISBN 978-1-64327-425-6(print)
ISBN 978-1-64327-426-3(mobi)
DOI 10.1088/2053-2571/aafe76
Version:20190401
IOPConcisePhysics
ISSN2053-2571(online)
ISSN2054-7307(print)
AMorgan&ClaypoolpublicationaspartofIOPConcisePhysics
PublishedbyMorgan&ClaypoolPublishers,1210FifthAvenue,Suite250,SanRafael,CA,
94901,USA
IOPPublishing,TempleCircus,TempleWay,BristolBS16HG,UK
In memory of Harriet Wilson Burgess

Contents
Preface ix
Author biography xi
1 The sea-level threat exemplified by Miami and Venice 1-1
1.1 Introduction to the Anthropocene 1-1
1.2 The recent rise of sea level 1-6
1.3 The River Thames flood barrier 1-18
1.4 The ‘Big U’ water fence for New York 1-20
1.5 Why Miami is more difficult 1-22
1.6 Amplification of sea-level threat by tides, storm-surges and the 1-23
high vapor pressure of warm water
1.7 Quantifying damages and liabilities: fractional attributable risk 1-25
References 1-28
2 Carbon burning has ‘engineered’ a new era of high 2-1
temperature and high sea level
2.1 Radiation balance sets Earth temperature 2-1
2.1.1 Stefan–Boltzmann law of radiation from hot matter 2-3
2.1.2 Earth temperature 2-4
2.2 The greenhouse gas discoveries of Tyndall and Arrhenius 2-5
2.2.1 Properties of Earth’s atmosphere 2-5
2.2.2 Direct observation of the greenhouse effect 2-10
2.3 Carbon dioxide rose during the fossil fuel era from 280 ppm to 2-11
410 ppm
2.4 Temperature and sea level rises are accelerating, will there be a 2-14
tipping point?
References 2-27
3 Instability of Earth climate and sea level 3-1
3.1 The ice core record of 420 000 years 3-1
3.2 Sea level rise since the last glaciation 3-7
vii
CanPhysicsSaveMiami(andShanghaiandVenice,byLoweringtheSea)?
3.3 The ‘Hothouse Earth’: an earlier era of high sea level 3-9
3.3.1 The euxinic ocean 3-13
3.3.2 The role of volcanism 3-17
References 3-18
4 What was learned from Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 4-1
4.1 Sulfur dioxide emission and stratospheric aerosol 4-3
4.2 Cooling of the Earth by the Mt Pinatubo eruption 4-8
4.3 Lowering sea level from Mt Pinatubo in the altimeter record 4-9
4.4 Particulate matter in the contemporary atmosphere 4-11
References 4-15
5 Solar engineering to cool the Earth 5-1
5.1 Size and type of artificial aerosol: a back-of-the-envelope estimate 5-1
5.2 Expected lifetime, cooling, and other aspects 5-2
5.3 A more general look at light scattering particles 5-4
5.4 Model predictions of climate alterations 5-8
5.5 Methods of aerosol insertion 5-10
5.6 Cost estimates are low 5-11
References 5-13
6 Can sea level be lowered by cooling to save Miami? 6-1
6.1 Thermal expansion of sea water 6-1
6.2 Sea level predictions based on the volcanic eruptions 6-3
6.3 Sea level predictions using geoengineering and climate models 6-4
6.4 Saving Miami and Shanghai and Venice by lowering the sea 6-6
References 6-9
Some useful constants 7-1
Glossary 8-1
viii
Preface
The sea is steadily rising, presently at ∼3.4 mm yr−1, already costing billions in
Venice, on the Thames River and in New York City, to counter sea-level-related
surges. Experts anticipate an accelerated rise, and find credible predictions for sea
level rise, by the year 2100, ranging from 12 inches to above 6 feet. Rise is
accompanied by more extreme events such as hurricanes, with storm-surges at
high tide above average water heights, leaving costly damage. We now know that
theEarthhasbeendivertedfromageneralcoolingtrendtoasharplywarmingtrend,
bythe∼50%increaseofatmosphericcarbondioxidesincethestartoftheindustrial
age, ca 1800. The warming effect of carbon dioxide, by trapping black-body
radiation from the Earth, was correctly analyzed in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius.
StudyoftheEarth’sgeologichistory,throughice-coresamples,linkssealevelriseto
temperaturerise,throughmechanismsofglacier-andice-sheetmelting,andthermal
expansionofwater.Temperaturerisedirectlyincreasesthevaporpressureofwater,
making more likely extreme rainfalls and strong storms, such as hurricanes. The
kinetic energy of storms derives from the condensation energy of water vapor into
liquid, so the intensity of storms is directly related to Earth temperature. Since the
lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is measured in centuries, and it has
upset the balance of incoming and outgoing energy, the Earth’s temperature will
continue to rise,even ifcarbon burningceases.Engineering the Earth’ssolarinput,
referred to as ‘solar radiation modification’, in the valuable IPCC documents of
October 2018, appears increasingly attractive and practical as a means to lower the
Earth’s temperature, and thus, primarily by the thermal expansion effect, to lower
sea level. Methods of introducing reflective sub-micron particles in the stratosphere
areknown,andtheireffectshavebeencalibratedfromsimilareffectsfromvolcanic
eruptionslikethatofMountPinatubo,in1991.Aresultofthateruptionwasa5mm
drop in sea level. The cost of engineering the climate appears small, comparable,
even, to the already-incurred costs of sea level rise represented by civil engineering
projects in London, Venice and New York City. It appears that an individual
country could undertake solar geoengineering within its borders and that any such
program, once terminated for any reason, would leave no residual, as the reflective
particlesfallawayonatimespanofafewyears,similartoavolcaniceruption.Any
suchdeploymentwouldbeeasilymonitoredbywidelyavailableopticalobservation
stations, and more. Feasible deployment of geoengineering, accompanied by some
reduction in carbon burning, is predicted to lower the sea level by the order of one
foot by 2100 AD, negating the expected rise, to provide an immense economic
benefit. The accompanying lower global temperature would reduce the severity of
extreme weather, and restore habitability to lethally hot parts of the world. This
bookisprimarilyconceivedtoaidandinformtheeducatedcitizen:aspectsmayalso
interest climate workers.It could be usedas a supplement to acollege or university
course. The author is an experimental physicist, employed in industry, academia,
and government, and, benefits from considerable interaction with the engineering
community. The author has also benefited from interaction with NYU colleagues
ix