Campaigning for President 2016: Strategy and Tactics

313 Pages·2018·4.134 MB·English

by  Dennis W. Johnson, Lara M. Brown (eds.)

CAMPAIGNING FOR PRESIDENT 2016
Coming out of one of the most contentious elections in history, Dennis W.
Johnson and Lara M. Brown have assembled an outstanding team of authors to
examine one of the fiercest and most closely fought presidential elections of our
time. Like the 2008 and 2012 editions of Campaigning for President, the 2016
edition combines the talents and insights of political scientists who specialize in
campaigns and elections together with seasoned political professionals who have
been involved in previous presidential campaigns. Campaigning for President is
the only series on presidential campaigns that features both political scientists and
professional consultants.
This book focuses on the most important questions of this most unusual
presidential campaign. What was the appeal of Donald Trump? Have Twitter and
social media become the dominant means of communicating? How did fake
news, WikiLeaks, and the Russians factor in this election? What happened to the
Obama coalition and why couldn’t Hillary Clinton capitalize on it? Hundreds of
millions of Super PAC dollars were raised and spent, and much of that was
wasted. What happened? Is the wild west of online media the new norm for
presidential contests? These and many other questions are answered in the
provocative essays by scholars and practitioners.
The volume also is packed with valuable appendices: a timeline of the
presidential race, biographical sketches of each candidate, a roster of political
consultants, the primary and general election results, exit polls, and campaign
spending.
New to the 2016 Edition
• The 2016 presidential contest brings a completely new set of players, policies,
and electoral challenges. Like the 2008 and 2012 editions, the authors probe
the strategies and tactics of the candidate campaigns and the outside
organizations.
• The chapters focus on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, but also look at
the Bernie Sanders insurgency, the collapse of the mainstream Republican
candidates, and the dynamics of the general election.
• Chapters also analyze the changes in campaign finance, new technologies,
the role of social media, and how fake news and subterfuge might become
the new realities of presidential campaigning.
Dennis W. Johnson is Professor Emeritus at the George Washington University
Graduate School of Political Management.
Lara M. Brown is Associate Professor and Director of the George Washington
University Graduate School of Political Management.
CAMPAIGNING FOR
PRESIDENT 2016
Strategy and Tactics
Edited by
Dennis W. Johnson and Lara M. Brown
George Washington University
Published 2018
by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
The right of Dennis W. Johnson and Lara M. Brown to be identified as the
author of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual
chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without
intent to infringe.
First edition published by Routledge 2009
Second edition published by Routledge 2013
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
ISBN: 978-1-138-05846-0 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-138-05847-7 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-16426-7 (ebk)
Typeset in Bembo
by Saxon Graphics Ltd, Derby
CONTENTS
List of Illustrations vii
Notes on Contributors ix
Preface xiii
1 The Election of 2016 1
Dennis W. Johnson
PART I
The Primaries 45
2 The Democratic Primaries 47
Lilly J. Goren
3 The Republican Primaries 65
Wayne P. Steger
4 Trump’s Appeal 81
Mark S. Mellman
PART II
Money and Communication 103
5 Presidential Candidate Fundraising: An Exception to
the Rule? 105
Anthony Corrado and Tassin Braverman
6 The Digital Battle 129
Suzanne Zurn
vi Contents
7 Political Advertising in the 2016 Presidential Election 145
Peter Fenn
8 #Campaigns2016: Hashtagged Phrases and the
Clinton–Trump Message War 156
Michael Cornfield and Michael D. Cohen
9 The Trump Effect on the Press, the Presidency, Rhetoric,
and Democracy 173
Major Garrett
PART III
The General Election 189
10 Outside Voices: Super PACs, Parties, and Other
Non-Candidate Actors 191
Stephen K. Medvic
11 Republican Strategy and Tactics During the General
Election 210
Katie Packer
12 Democratic Strategy and Tactics During the General
Election 225
Maria Cardona
13 The Defining Fault Lines in One of the Darkest Campaigns
in Political History 238
Matthew Dallek
Appendix A: Timeline 249
Appendix B: Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidates 256
Appendix C: Campaign Operatives and Consultants 261
Appendix D: Primary and Caucus Results 263
Appendix E: General Election Results 270
Appendix F: Exit Polls 282
Appendix G: Campaign Spending by Candidates, Parties, and
Major Super PACs 284
Index 286
ILLUSTRATIONS
Figures
3.1 Caucus and Primary Vote Shares of the Top Four Candidates
in the 2016 Republican Caucuses and Primaries 75
4.1 Clinton Vote Share by National and Individual Economic Indices 84
4.2 Presidential Vote by Views on Government 86
4.3 “Which is More Important to You Personally? ‘Order and
Stability’ or ‘Progress and Reform’?” 87
4.4 “Since the 1950s, Do You Think American Culture and Way of
Life Has ‘Mostly Changed for the Better,’ ‘Mostly Changed for the
Worse,’ or ‘Not Changed Much at All’?” And Presidential Vote
by Views on Cultural Change since the 1950s 88
4.5 Views of Feminists, And Presidential Vote by Views of Feminists 89
4.6 “Which Statement Comes Closer to Your Own Views –
Even if Neither is Exactly Right? ‘The Number of Newcomers
from Other Countries Threatens Traditional American Customs
and Values’ or ‘The Number of Newcomers from Other Countries
Strengthens American Society’” 93
4.7 Presidential Vote by Candidate Favorability 97
4.8 Strongest Determinants of a Trump Vote among White Voters 99
Tables
1.1 Republican and Democratic Presidential and Vice Presidential
Candidates 6
5.1 Presidential Candidates, Receipts and Disbursements, in Millions 109
viii Illustrations
5.2 Sources of Funds—Individual Donors through June 30, 2016 112
6.1 How Candidate Websites Changed from 2012 to 2016 131
6.2 Clinton and Trump Links on Facebook and Twitter 133
7.1 Top Television Show, by Percentage of Household Share,
1950s–2010s 147
7.2 Television Ad Spending by Candidates and Outside Groups
During Primaries 150
8.1 Top Campaign Hashtags of 2016 161
CONTRIBUTORS
Dennis W. Johnson is professor emeritus at the George Washington University
Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM). His writings include Democracy
for Hire: A History of American Political Consulting (2016); Campaigning in the Twenty-
first Century, second edition (2016); Political Consultants and American Elections, third
edition (2015; formerly No Place for Amateurs); The Laws that Shaped America (2009);
and Congress Online (2004). He is also editor of and contributor to Campaigning for
President 2012 (2013); Campaigning for President 2008 (2009); and the Routledge
Handbook on Political Management (2009). He was Fulbright Distinguished Lecturer
in China (2010–2011) and was associate dean of the GSPM.
Lara M. Brown is associate professor and director of the GSPM. She is the author
of Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants (2010)
and co-editor of The Presidential Leadership Dilemma: Between the Constitution and
a Political Party (2012). Along with publishing a number of academic journal
articles, she serves as a regular contributor to U.S. News & World Report’s “Thomas
Jefferson Street” blog. Prior to her work in academia, Brown served as a political
appointee in President William J. Clinton’s administration in the U.S. Department
of Education in Washington, D.C.
Tassin Braverman is a research assistant in the Department of Government at
Colby College. His primary areas of interest are presidential campaign finance, the
role of Super PACs in federal elections, and sources of Super PAC funding. His
previous research work developing a typology of donors to Super PACs was
published in The Landscape of Campaign Contributions (2016), sponsored by The
Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board. He is currently
working on an analysis of contributions to Super PACs in the 2016 election.