This page intentionally left blank CALCULATED BETS Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win Thisisabookaboutagamblingsystemthatworks.Ittellshowtheauthorused computersimulationsandmathematical-modelingtechniquestopredictthe outcomeofjaialaimatchesandbetonthemsuccessfully,thusincreasinghis initialstakebyover500percentinoneyear!Hismethodscanworkforanyone; attheendofthebookhetellsthebestwaytowatchjaialaiandhowtobet onit. Withhumorandenthusiasm,Skienadetailsalife-longfascinationwiththe computer prediction of sporting events. Along the way, he discusses other gamblingsystems,bothsuccessfulandunsuccessful,forsuchgamesaslotto, roulette,blackjack,andthestockmarket.Indeed,heshowshowhisjaialai systemfunctionslikeaminiaturestock-tradingsystem. Doyouwanttolearnaboutprogramtradingsystems,thefutureofInternet gambling, and the real reason brokerage houses do not offer mutual funds thatinvestatracetracksandfrontons?Howmathematicalmodelsareusedin politicalpolling?Thedifferencebetweencorrelationandcausation?Ifyouare interestedingamblingandmathematics,oddsarethisisthebookforyou! StevenSkienaisProfessorofComputerScienceattheStateUniversityofNew York,StonyBrook.Heistheauthoroftwopopularbooks,TheAlgorithmDesign Manualandtheaward-winningComputationalDiscreteMathematics,anew editionofwhichisbeingpublishedbyCambridgeUniversityPress.Heisthe recipientoftheOfficeofNavalResearch(ONR)YoungInvestigator’sAwardand theChancellor’sAwardforExcellenceinTeachingatStonyBrook. OUTLOOKS PUBLISHED BY CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS AND THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA Mathematicalcontentisnotconfinedtomathematics.EugeneWignernoted theunreasonableeffectivenessofmathematicsinthephysicalsciences.Deep mathematicalstructuresalsoexistinareasasdiverseasgeneticsandart,fi- nanceandmusic.Thediscoveryofthesemathematicalstructureshasinturn inspirednewquestionswithinpuremathematics. IntheOutlooksseries,theinterplaybetweenmathematicsandotherdisci- plinesisexplored.Authorsrevealmathematicalcontent,limitations,andnew questionsarisingfromthisinterplay,providingaprovocativeandnovelview for mathematicians, and for others an advertisement for the mathematical outlook. ManagingEditor RonaldL.Graham,UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego EditorialBoard JohnBarrow,UniversityofCambridge FanChung,UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego IngridDaubechies,PrincetonUniversity PersiDiaconis,StanfordUniversity DonZagier,MaxPlanckInstitute,Bonn CALCULATED BETS COMPUTERS, GAMBLING, AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING TO WIN STEVEN SKIENA StateUniversityofNewYorkatStonyBrook MathematicalAssociationofAmerica The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarcón 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org ©Steven S. Skiena 2004 First published in printed format 2001 ISBN 0-511-02869-5 eBook (Adobe Reader) ISBN 0-521-80426-4 hardback ISBN 0-521-00962-6 paperback Tomyparents,MorrisandRiaSkiena,forintroducingmetojaialai. Childrenlooktotheirparentstoteachthemvalues,andyoutaught usthevalueofagoodquinielaatanearlyage. AndtoournewdaughterBonnie; Welookforwardtoteachingyouthebestofwhatourparentstaughtus.