ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd vviiiiii 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM BY ALL MEANS NECESSARY (cid:2) ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd ii 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2288 PPMM T he Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government offi cials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government offi cials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing F oreign Affairs , the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both fi ndings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affi liation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd iiii 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM B A Y LL MEANS NECESSARY (cid:2) HOW CHINA’S RESOURCE QUEST IS CHANGING THE WORLD BY ELIZABETH C. ECONOMY A ND MICHAEL LEVI A Council on Foreign Relations Book 1 ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd iiiiii 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM 3 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offi ces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 © Elizabeth C. Economy and Michael Levi 2014 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Economy, Elizabeth, 1962– By all means necessary : how China’s resource quest is changing the world / by Elizabeth C. Economy and Michael Levi. pages cm Summary: “In the past thirty years, China has transformed from an impoverished country where peasants comprised the largest portion of the populace, to an economic power with an expanding middle class and more megacities than anywhere else on earth. Like every other major power in modern history, China is looking outward to fi nd the massive quantities of resources needed to maintain its economic expansion; it is now engaged in a far fl ung quest around the world for fuel, ores, water, and land for farming. Chinese traders and investors buy commodities, with consequences for economies, people, and the environment around the world. Meanwhile the Chinese military aspires to secures sea lanes, and Chinese diplomats struggle to protect the country’s interests abroad. In By All Means Necessary, Elizabeth Economy and Michael Levi explore the unrivaled expansion of the Chinese economy and what has been required to sustain this meteoric growth. Clear, authoritative, and provocative, By All Means Necessary is a sweeping account of where China’s pursuit of raw materials may take the country in the coming years and what the consequences will be—not just for China, but for the whole world”— Provided by publisher. ISBN 978–0–19–992178–2 (hardback) 1. Natural resources—Government policy—China. 2. China—Foreign economic relations. 3. China—Economic conditions—2000– 4. China— Economic policy. 5. National security—China. I. Levi, Michael A. II. Title. HC427.5.E36 2014 333.70951—dc23 2013029331 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd iivv 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM (cid:2) CONTENTS Preface v ii Acknowledgments ix 1. Introduction 1 2. From Tribute to Treaty Port to Global Trade 10 3. China Emerges 21 4. China Goes Out 46 5. China Arrives 68 6. Growing Good Governance 99 7. Beyond the Developing World 117 8. Security and Politics in China’s Backyard 138 v ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd vv 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM vi contents 9. Security and Politics Abroad 165 10. Resource Strategy in a Changing World 189 Notes 205 Maps 259 Glossary of Chinese Entities 261 Index 267 ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd vvii 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM (cid:2) PREFACE THIS IS A WIDE-RANGING book, necessitated by its subject matter: China’s resource quest extends from energy to minerals to land to water and is pursued to varying degrees through trade, investment, politi- cal maneuvering, and military means. Hence the title B y All Means Necessary . Despite the broad nature of this book, though, it is not all encompassing. We do not dive into every one of the minerals China pursues or the countries with which it engages; instead we focus on representative examples. In addition, we do not investigate domestic Chinese resource consumption or production unless it directly affects resource availability beyond China’s borders. This ultimately leads us, in particular, to exclude a host of domestic Chinese activities that have important global environmental consequences, most notably the burning of coal and its impact on climate change. In contrast, efforts to secure water within Chinese borders (which can affect the fl ow and availability of water in downstream countries) often fi t our defi nition of a “resource quest” and hence are included. In researching and writing this book, we relied on intensive use of the existing scholarly and business literature (along with our own analysis of both) and of statistical data. We also conducted research on the ground in many of the countries affected by China’s resource quest, including Canada, China, Kenya, Mozambique, Zambia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil, and we inter- viewed offi cials, scholars, and businesspeople from other countries such as Mongolia, Vietnam, and Peru. A book like this is only pos- sible with such a mix of primary and secondary resources, and we are indebted to all those from whose knowledge this book has benefi ted. vii ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd vviiii 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM ooxxffoorrddhhbb--99778800119999992211778822..iinndddd vviiiiii 1122//55//22001133 33::0044::2299 PPMM
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