Bus Transportation: Demand, Economics, Contracting, and Policy PDF
Preview Bus Transportation: Demand, Economics, Contracting, and Policy
Bus Transport Demand, Economics, Contracting, and Policy David A. Hensher Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies The University of Sydney Business School The University of Sydney NSW, Australia Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211, 1000AEAmsterdam, Netherlands TheBoulevard,Langford Lane,Kidlington,OxfordOX5 1GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates Copyright©2020ElsevierInc. Allrights reserved. Nopart ofthispublicationmay bereproduced ortransmitted inanyform orbyanymeans, electronicor mechanical,including photocopying, recording,oranyinformation storageandretrieval system,withoutpermission inwritingfromthepublisher. Details onhowtoseek permission, furtherinformation aboutthePublisher’spermissions policiesandourarrangements with organizations suchastheCopyrightClearanceCenterandtheCopyrightLicensing Agency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www. elsevier.com/permissions. Thisbookandtheindividual contributionscontainedinitareprotected undercopyrightbythePublisher (otherthanasmay benotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging. As newresearchandexperiencebroadenourunderstanding, changesinresearch methods,professional practices,ormedical treatmentmay becomenecessary. Practitionersandresearchers mustalwaysrelyontheir ownexperience andknowledgeinevaluatingandusingany information,methods,compounds,orexperiments describedherein. Inusingsuchinformation ormethodsthey shouldbe mindfuloftheirown safetyandthesafetyofothers,including partiesforwhom theyhaveaprofessional responsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neither thePublishernortheauthors,contributors, oreditors, assumeany liabilityforany injuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligence orotherwise,or fromanyuseor operation ofanymethods,products, instructions,or ideascontainedinthematerialherein. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-Publication Data Acatalogrecord forthisbook isavailablefromtheLibrary ofCongress BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-Publication Data Acataloguerecord forthisbook isavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-820132-9 Forinformation onallElsevierpublications visitourwebsite athttps://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals Publisher:JoeHayton Acquisitions Editor: BrianRomer EditorialProjectManager:MichelleW.Fisher ProductionProjectManager:KameshRamajogi CoverDesigner: Mark Rogers TypesetbyTNQTechnologies This book contributes to the research program of the Volvo Research and þ Education Foundation Bus Rapid Transit Centre of Excellence (BRT ). We acknowledge the Foundation for partial funding support. It is dedicated to those who believe in the role of the Bus. With chapter co-author contributions from Camila Balbontin, Geoffrey Clifton, David Cosgrove, Richard Ellison, Chinh Ho, Loan Ho, Louise Knowles, Julieta Legaspi, Zheng Li, Corinne Mulley, John Rose, Neil Smith, John Stanley, Janet Stanley, Alejandro Tirachini, Baojin Wang, Glen Weisbrod and Yale Wong. Andre Pinto assisted me in preparing this volume. List of previous sources of publication Reviews Hensher,D.A.,2015.Keepingthedebateinformedonreformsinlandpassengertransport:theinfluenceoftheThredboSeries.TransportReviews34(6), 671e673. Hensher, D.A.,2018.Publicservice contracts-the economicsofreform withspecial referencetothe bus sector.In: Cowie,J.,Ison,S. (Eds.),The RoutledgeHandbookofTransportEconomics.Routledge,London,pp.93e107.Chapter7. Stanley,J.,Hensher,D.A.,Wong,Y.Z.,2018.Disruptivetechnology:abetterfutureforlandpassengertransport?.In:BusandCoachIndustryPolicy Paper11.ReportpreparedforBusIndustryConfederation. Wong,Y.,Hensher,D.A.,2018.TheThredbostory:ajourneyofcompetitionandownershipinlandpassengertransport.In:PaperPresentedatthe15th InternationalConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo15),Stockholm,Sweden,13e17August2017). (LinkedtoVREFCentre),vol.69.ResearchinTransportationEconomics(RETREC),pp.9e22. Contracting Hensher,D.A.,Stanley,J.K.,2010.Contractingregimesforbusservices:whathavewelearntafter20years?ResearchinTransportationEconomics29, 140e144. Hensher, D.A., 2010. Incompleteness and clarity in bus contracts: identifying the nature of the ex ante and ex post perceptual divide. Research in TransportationEconomics29,106e117. Hensher,D.A.,Mulley,C.,Smith,N.A.,2013.Towardsasimplifiedperformance-linkedvalueformoneymodelasareferencepointforbuscontract payments.Presentedatthe12thInternationalConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo12),Durban,South AfricaSeptember2011.PublishedinResearchinTransportationEconomics39(1),232e238. Hensher,D.A.,2014.Therelationshipbetweenbuscontractcosts,userperceivedservicequalityandperformanceassessment,presentedatThredbo12, Durban,SouthAfrica,September2011.InternationalJournalofSustainableTransportationspecialissue8(1),5e27. Hensher,D.A.,2015.Customerservicequalityandbenchmarkinginpublictransportcontracts.invitedpaperforinauguralissueofInternationalJournalof QualityInnovation1(1),4. Hensher, D.A., 2015. Cost efficiency under negotiated performance-based contracts and benchmarking for urban bus contracts - are there any gains throughcompetitivetenderingintheabsenceofanincumbentpublicmonopolist?Presentedatthe13thInternationalconferenceoncompetitionand ownershipoflandpassengertransport(Thredbo13),OxfordSeptember15e192013.JournalofTransportEconomicsandPolicy49(1),133e148. Hensher,D.A.,Ho,C.,Knowles,L.,2016.Efficientcontractingandincentiveagreementsbetweenregulatorsandbusoperators:theinfluenceofrisk preferencesofcontractingagentsoncontractchoice.Paperpresentedatthe14thInternationalConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLand PassengerTransport(Thredbo14),Chile,August30toSeptember3,2015TransportationResearchPartA87,22e40. Hensher,D.A.,2015.Usingcontractedassetstoundertakenon-contractedservicesasawaytoimprovecostefficiencyundernegotiatedortenderedbus contracts.invitedpaperfortheinauguralissueofJournalofStrategicContractingandNegotiation1(2),118e128. Hensher,D.A.,Ho,C.,Mulley,C.M.,2016.Disruptioncostsincontracttransitions.Paperpresentedatthe14thInternationalConferenceonCompetition andOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo14),Chile,August30toSeptember3,2015ResearchinTransportationEconomics59,75e85. Bus rapid transit Hensher, D.A., 2007. Sustainable public transport systems: moving towards a value for money and network-based approach and away from blind commitment.TransportPolicy14(1),98e102. Hensher,D.A.,Li,Z.,2012.Ridershipdriversofbusrapidtransitsystems.Transportation39(6),1209e1221. xv xvi List of previous sources of publication Hensher,D.A.,Wong,Y.,Ho,L.,Clifton,G.,2018.Fromworkhorsetothoroughbred:reviewofbusrapidtransitandbrandedbusservicesinAustralia and future opportunities. In: Report prepared for Bus Industry Confederation, 21 December 2018. Paper to be presented at 16th International ConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo16),Singapore,August2019. Li, Z., Hensher, D.A., 2019. Performance contributors of bus rapid transit systems within the ITDP BRT standard: an ordered choice approach. In: Preparedforthe16thInternationalConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo16),Singapore,August2019. Image Hensher, D.A., Ho, C., Mulley, C.M., 2015. Identifying resident preferences for bus-based and rail-based investments as a complementary buy in perspectivetoinformprojectplanningprioritisation.JournalofTransportGeography46(1),1e9. Hensher,D.A.,Balbontin,C.,Ho,C.,Mulley,C.,2019.Cross-culturalcontrastsofpreferencesforbusrapidtransitandlightrailtransit.Paperpresentedat the15thInternationalConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo15),Stockholm,Sweden,13e17August 2017.(LinkedtoVREFCentre).JournalofTransportEconomicsandPolicy53(1),47e73. Elasticities Hensher,D.A.,2008.Assessingsystematicsourcesofvariationinpublictransportelasticities:somecomparativewarnings.TransportationResearchPart A42,1032e1043. Crowding Li,Z.,Hensher,D.A.,2011.Crowdingandpublictransport:areviewofwillingnesstopayevidence.TransportPolicy18,880e887. Li, Z., Hensher, D.A., 2013. Crowding in public transport: objective and subjective measures (linked to ARC- DP 2012e2014). Journal of Public Transportation16(2),107e134. Tirachini,A.,Hensher,D.A.,Rose,J.M.,2013.Crowdinginpublictransportsystems:Effectsonusers,operationandimplicationsfortheestimationof demand.TransportationResearchPartA53,36e52. System wide multi-modal assessment Tirachini,A.,Hensher,D.A.,2012.Multimodaltransportpricing:firstbest,secondbestandextensionstonon-motorisedtransport.TransportReviews32 (2),181e202. Transport appraisal Legaspi,J.,Hensher,D.A.,Wang,B.,2015.Estimatingthewidereconomicbenefitsoftransportinvestments:investigatingthecaseoftheSydneynorth- westraillinkproject.CaseStudiesonTransportPolicy3(2),182e195. Weisbrod,G.,Mulley,C.,Hensher,D.A.,2016.Recognisingthecomplementarycontributionsofcost-benefitanalysisandeconomicimpactanalysistoan understanding of the worth of public transport investment: a case study of bus rapid transit in Sydney, Australia. Paper Presented at the 14th InternationalConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo14),Chile,August30toSeptember3,2015Research inTransportationEconomics59,450e461. Hensher,D.A.,Ellison,R.,Ho,C.,Weisbrod,G.,2019.HowwelldoesBRTperformincontrasttoLRT?AnAustraliancasestudyusingMetroScan_TI. In:Ferbrache,Fiona(Ed.),DevelopingBusRapidTransit:TheValueofBRTinUrbanSpaces.EdwardElgarPublisher.Chapter8. Energy Mulley,C.M.,Hensher,D.A.,Cosgrove,D.,2017.Israilcleanerandgreenerthanbus?TransportationResearchPartD51(1),14e28. Social exclusion Stanley, J., Stanley, J., Balbontin, C., Hensher, D.A., 2019. Social exclusion: the roles of mobility and bridging social capital in regional Australia. TransportationResearchPartA125,223e233. List of previous sources of publication xvii Mobility as a service Hensher,D.A.,2017.Futurebustransportcontractsundermobilityasaserviceregimeinthedigitalage:aretheylikelytochange?Presentedatthe15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership of Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15), Stockholm, Sweden, 13e17 August 2017 TransportationResearchPartA98,86e96. Ho,C.,Hensher,D.A.,Mulley,C.M.,Wong,Y.,2018.Potentialuptakeandwillingness-to-payforMobilityasaService(MaaS):astatedchoicestudy. Paperpresentedatthe15thInternationalConferenceonCompetitionandOwnershipofLandPassengerTransport(Thredbo15),Stockholm,Sweden, 13e17August2017TransportationResearchPartA117,302e318. Wong, Y.Z., Hensher, D.A., Mulley, C., 2019. Mode-agnostic mobility contracts: Identifying broker/aggregator models for delivering mobility as a service (MaaS).In: WorldConferenceon Transport Research- WCTR 2019,Mumbai,26e31May 2019.Alsoacceptedfor presentation at the January2019TransportationResearchBoardAnnualConference,WashingtonD.C. Hensher,D.A.,2018.Tacklingroadcongestionewhatmightitlooklikeinthefutureunderacollaborativeandconnectedmobilitymodel?,Invitedpaper fromaneminentacademiconinvitationfromEditorinChiefTaeOum.TransportPolicy66,A1eA8. About the author David Hensher is Professor of Management, and Founding Director of the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS): The Australian Key Centre of Teaching and Research in Transport Management in The Business School at The University of Sydney. ITLS is ranked under Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) at level 5 (‘well above world standards’).EducatedinKenya(Parklands,LordDelamere),England(Lindfield,Oxford)andAustralia(UNSW),Davidis a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia (FASSA), Recipient of the 2009 IATBR (International Asso- ciation ofTravel BehaviourResearch) Lifetime AchievementAward inrecognitionfor his long-standingandexceptional contributiontoIATBR aswellastothewidertravelbehaviourcommunity(http://iatbr.weebly.com/award-winners.html), Recipient of the 2006 Engineers Australia Transport Medal for lifelong contribution to transportation, Recipient of the 2009BusNSW(BusandCoachAssociation)OutstandingContributiontoIndustryAward,andRecipientofthe2012best paper released bythe International Association ofMaritime Economists (IAME). David isalso the recipient ofthe Smart 2013 Premier Award for Excellence in Supply Chain Management, and recipient of the 2014 Institute of Transportation Engineers (Australia and New Zealand) Transport Profession Award to an individual who has made a significant contribution to the development of the transport/traffic engineering profession over a sustained period; recipient of 2016 AwardforOutstandingResearchaspartoftheinauguralUniversityofSydneyVice-Chancellor’sAwardsforExcellence. David is also the recipient of the 2019 John Shaw Medal which honours an industry champion who has made a lasting contribution to Australia’s roads. Selected in 2018 by The University of Sydney as one of 25 research stars for the ARC InauguralEngagementandImpactsubmission(rankedoneof12withHighImpact).ADirectorofVolvoEducationaland Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Bus Rapid Transit (2010 onwards), Emeritus Member of Singapore Land Transport Authority International Advisory Panel 2007e2010 (Chaired by Minister of Transport), Honorary Fellow Singapore Land Transport Authority Academy, Past President of the International Association of Travel Behaviour ResearchandaPastVice-ChairoftheInternationalScientificCommitteeoftheWorldConferenceofTransportResearch. David is the Executive Chair and Co-Founder of The International Conference in Competition and Ownership of Land PassengerTransport(theThredboSerieshttp://www.thredbo-conference-series.org/),nowinits30thyear.Davidisonthe editorialboardsof17oftheleadingtransportjournals.Davidwasappointedin1999byoneoftheworld’smostprestigious academic publishinghouses -ElsevierScience press-asseriesandvolumeco-editorofahandbook series Handbooksin Transport.In2010hewasappointedbyRoutledge Publishers(UK)asEditorofafour-volumemajor worksinTransport Economics as well as Edward Elgar Publishers as Series Editor for volumes on Transport and the Environment. He has published extensively (over 635 papers) in the leading international transport and economics journals (such as The Economic Journal, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Applied Economics, Empirical Economics, Transportation Research Parts A, B and E) as well as 16 books, and is Australia’smostcitedtransportacademic.Davidhasover54,000citationsofhiscontributionsinGoogleScholar(seventh mostcitedacademicattheUniversityofSydneyinalldisciplines).Davidisrankedthirdintheworldforeconomistsinthe field of discrete choice models, as of August 2019 (https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.dcm.html) and ITLS (and the Business SchoolatSydney)isrankedsecond.HisbooksincludetheDemandforAutomobiles,publishedbyNorth-Holland,theBus and Coach Business (with Ann Brewer published - Allen and Unwin), Transport: An Economics and Management Perspective (With Ann Brewer e Oxford University Press), Stated Choice Methods (with Jordan Louviere and Joffre SwaiteCambridgeUniversityPress),AppliedChoiceAnalysis-aPrimer(withJohnRoseandBillGreeneeCambridge UniversityPress,firstandsecondeditions),OrderedChoiceModels(withBillGreeneeCambridgeUniversityPress)and Understanding Mobility as a Service (MaaS) - Past, Present and Future (with Corinne Mulley, Chinh Ho, John Nelson, Göran Smith and Yale Wong). xix xx About the author His particular interests are transport economics, transport strategy, sustainable transport, productivity measurement, travellerbehaviouranalysis,choiceanalysis,statedchoiceexperiments,processheuristics,andinstitutionalreform(PPPs, privatisation tenderingandcontracting)andUnderstandingMobility asaService(MaaS)-Past,PresentandFuture(with Corinne Mulley, Chinh Ho, John Nelson, Göran Smith and Yale Wong - Elsevier). David has advised numerous government and private sector organisations in many countries on matters related to transportation, especially matters related to forecasting demand for existing and new transportation services; for example the Speedrail high speed rail project, fast rail in regional NSW, the Fiji Travel Survey, the Liverpool-Parramatta Transitway, the North-West Rail project,WestConnex,theSydneyMetro,publictransportelasticities,andnumeroustollroadprojectsthroughoutAustralia and internationally. David is regarded as Australia’s most eminent expert on matters relating to travel demand and valuation and transport reform. Appointments include: a member of the executive committee that reviewed bus transport bids for the Olympic Games, the NSW Government’s Peer Review Committee for the Sydney Strategic Transport Plan, PeerreviewerforTransfund(NZ)oftheNewZealandprojectevaluationprogram,PeerrevieweroftheNZLandPassenger Transport Procurement Strategy for Land Transport NZ, member of the executive committee of ATEC, a consortium promotingafreightrailsystembetweenMelbourneandDarwin;economicadvisertoGilbertþTobinLawyersonvaluation methods in IP context; panel member of Transport NSW benchmarking program; specialist toll road project adviser to Thiess, member of Infrastructure Australia’s reference panel on public transport, adviser to the West Connex toll road Project,advisertoDeloitteAccessEconomics,TransportforNSWandpeerreviewerforSouthernWater(UK)regulatory pricing reform, and member of Board of Advice of ITLS (Africa). In 2014 David was appointed as a Panel Member to Review The Faculty of Management at The University of Johannesburg and in 2016 to review the Department of Management Sciences at the City University of Hong Kong. Member of Transport for NSW Connected and Automated Vehicle Stakeholder Reference Group (formed in 2017) and Infrastructure NSW Smart Cities Working Group. Chapter 1 Introduction Publictransportisathemeofenormousimportanceinallsocieties.Thebusisthemostpatronisedofalllandebasedpublic passenger modes. It is however seen as a somewhat unglamourous means of supporting mobility and accessibility (incontrasttoraileheavyandlight),yetofferssomuchtothetravellingpublicaswellasofferingattractivesustainability opportunities. We recognise however that attracting and retaining public transport patronage in general, and bus in particular, is a growing challenge in many countries, developed and developing, rich and poor, and will be further exacerbated in economies that are moving towards a high level of economic efficiency and wealth, where the desire and ability to own and use an automobile will continue to impact the future of all forms of land-based public transport, especially for the majority of urban and regional travel. This future may be at further risk with the introduction of autonomous cars. There is no doubt that the role of urban public transport is continuing to change. The gradual loss of market share in largemetropolitancentres,typicalofmanywesterncities(despitesomepromisingsignsofareversalinsomecities),isa product of public transport being unable to be responsive to the changing needs of the market, while the car, due to its inherentattributesofflexibilityandconvenience,keepspacewithpeople’severchangingtransportneeds.Iftherearethree overriding characteristics portraying the current market profile, it is increasing real wealth for most groups but not all, greater complexity of activities undertaken in the daily life cycle, and the flexibility offered by alternative forms of transport (and non-transport responses such as working from home). These are strong forces of change, which move conventional regular fixed route public transport even further away from meeting many mainstream demands. Certainly, there are some signs of increasing use of public transport, although modal shares are going the other way e for many reasonssuchaslongertraintripstolowerpricedresidentiallocations,buttheimpactontheoveralltransporttaskisoften small. In many western societies and a growing number of developing economies, motorised urban public bus and rail transportisanichemarketproviderandlookslikebeingsofortheforeseeablefuture,evenwithnewopportunitiesenabled by the increasing availability of digitally supported technology to better inform the public of the service opportunities provided by public transport. It is also unclear what role the bus might play in and future multi-modal developments associatedwithMobilityasaService(MaaS),althoughthereisagrowingsensethatwithoutpublictransportatthecentre ofMaaS,itwillbenothingmorethanacar-basedofferingthatwillbeopposedbygovernmentsglobally.Butwhatmarket nichesarewetalkingabout?Theanswerliesintherealmofthediversityofcustomerneeds(bothrealandlatent)andthe types of services that can be offered through public transport to capture some (even if small) amounts of particular passenger markets. For example, commuters with a fixed workplace, travelling during the morning and evening peak betweentwolocationswithplentyoftraffic,andwhohavenocommitmentsbeforeorafterwork,otherthantogettoand from home, aregood candidates for publictransport use; school children; adultson very low household incomes; special events (sporting, cultural etc.), and the elderly in declining health who cannot drive. Thisbookreflectstheauthor’sperspectiveonissuesofimportancetothepreservationandhealthofthebussector.The thirty four (34) chapters are edited versions of papers and reports written over the last twelve years, many of which have been published in journals and edited conference proceedings, while some are reports commissioned by transport authorities and associations. The research presented in this volume is intended to capture the debate on the role and relevance of the bus sector. In preparing this document, I have selected papers that cover the themes of institutional reform, performance mea- surementandmonitoring,servicequality,travelchoiceanddemand,integratedbus-basedsystems(referredtoabusrapid transit, busways, transitways), energy contrasts between PT modes, challenges in promoting bus over rail, and public transport policy, especially challenges in growing patronage, disruptive technology and mobility as a service (MaaS). I have been privileged to work with many fine researchers who have co-authored earlier versions of many of the chapters.IamindebtedtoYaleWong(Chapters3,5,18,32and33),JohnStanley(Chapters3,6and30),CorinneMulley (Chapters8,14,19,20,27,29,32and33),NeilSmith(Chapter8),ChinhHo(Chapters12,14,19,20,28and32),Louise BusTransport.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-820132-9.00001-7 1 Copyright©2020ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.
The list of books you might like
