Springer Water Anna Entholzner Charles Reeve E ditors Building Climate Resilience through Virtual Water and Nexus Thinking in the Southern African Development Community Springer Water The book series Springer Water comprises a broad portfolio of multi- and interdisciplinary scientific books, aiming at researchers, students, and everyone interestedin water-relatedscience.The seriesincludespeer-reviewed monographs, edited volumes, textbooks, and conference proceedings. Its volumes combine all kinds of water-related research areas, such as: the movement, distribution and quality of freshwater; water resources; the quality and pollution of water and its influence on health; the water industry including drinking water, wastewater, and desalinationservicesandtechnologies;waterhistory;aswellaswatermanagement and the governmental, political, developmental, and ethical aspects of water. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13419 Anna Entholzner Charles Reeve (cid:129) Editors Building Climate Resilience through Virtual Water and Nexus Thinking in the Southern African Development Community 123 Editors Anna Entholzner CharlesReeve Climate Resilient Infrastructure Climate Resilient Infrastructure DevelopmentFacility DevelopmentFacility Pretoria Pretoria SouthAfrica SouthAfrica ISSN 2364-6934 ISSN 2364-8198 (electronic) SpringerWater ISBN978-3-319-28462-0 ISBN978-3-319-28464-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-28464-4 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016936962 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2016 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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However, the views and recommendations containedinthiscommunicationarethoseoftheindividualauthors,andneitherDFIDnorCRIDFis responsiblefor,orboundbytherecommendationsmade.Similarly,theviewsexpressedarethoseofthe individualauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectDFIDorCRIDFsviews. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerland In memory of Dave Phillips and Lawrence Musaba. Thought leaders, respected colleagues, and much loved friends. Foreword In January 2015, the doomsayers were vindicated when the World Economic Forum(WEF)releasedits10thGlobalRisksReport.Thereport,whichaimstoshed light on global risks and help create a shared understanding of the most pressing issues,thewaystheyinterconnectandtheirpotentialnegativeimpacts,drawsonthe inputsofover900public-sectoraswellasprivate-sectorstakeholdersglobally.The 28 global risks are ranked and mapped according to two dimensions—likelihood and impact. Over the past decade the risks deemed to pose the greatest negative impact on the global economy have included inter-state conflict, financial crises, energyprices;andthespreadofinfectiousdiseases.Thisyear’sreport, forthefirst time, places water as the number one risk.1 NowthatthewiseandwealthyoftheWEFhavetakenwaterriskseriouslythereis anincreasedrecognitionofthecrucialrolewaterplayslubricatingthewheelsofthe global economy and social systems across all levels of scale. The realisation that waterissuesposeanexistentialrisktotheiroperationshascausedcaptainsofindustry to initiate programmes on water security (going beyond improving water-use effi- ciencywithintheirownoperationsandextendingtocatchmentconservationeffortsin some parts of the world); and in water-stressed parts of the world (predicted to be hometohalftheworld’spopulationby2030)waterisanissueascendingthepolitical agenda. In the SADC region water issues have made it into the regional policy structures,withtalkofdesertification,theelNinoeffect,climatechange,droughtsand floodsallhavingaregionalresonance.Butwhatabouttheordinarypeoplelivingin theregion,themen,womenandchildren,forwhomwaterscarcityisanalltoodaily reality?Howdotheyfitintothispictureofwaterasaglobalriskfactor? It turns out that where they fit into the broader picture is largely an accident of birth—where they live will to a large degree determine how much water they can 1In the 11th WEF Global Risks Report released in January 2016 water issues have slipped to numberthreeinthelistof‘Globalrisksintermsofimpact’.Thenumber1riskinthe2016reportis ‘Failureofclimatechangemitigationandadaptation’.Waterissueshavebeeninthetopthreeof globalrisksforthelast5years. vii viii Foreword access at various levels to supply their direct as well as indirect needs. The north-west parts of southern Africa enjoy high levels of rainfall, delivered in a relatively steady pattern. Rainfall becomes more variable as one moves east and drops dramatically as one moves south. What this book does is to analyse the impactsofthisregionaldistributionofrainfallinrelationtoeconomicdevelopment patterns, urbanisation and water consumption for agriculture and energy produc- tion. Beyond the basic daily amount of water each human needs for their survival (depending on your habits this is deemed between 25 and 50 litres a day) the vast consumption of water is through the provision of products and services. When we speak of the region facing a future of water scarcity it is the ability to grow crops, develop industry, generate electricity and sustain ecosystems where the challenge liesforwatermanagers.IftheSADCregionisgoingtobecomemoreeconomically developed,lessunequalandultimatelymoresustainable,itwillneedwell-managed water supplies as an input into a range of products and services, or else water will truly become our number one regional risk. Ifirstheardtheterm“virtualwater”asapostgraduatestudentmajoringinEarth Observation and Remote Sensing at the University of London. My immediate interpretation was that this was in some way “digital water”—a new way of clas- sifying water resources on the flickering screen of my computer where a GIS pro- gramme could plot its supply, flux and use on the ground. It turns out that my understanding of the term “virtual water”was wrong, but myunderstandingofthe concept and what it could teach us about regional and global flows, shifts, oppor- tunities and risks was in the right spirit. If water is a fundamental factor in the production of most of the products we consume and trade today, then better understandingoftheproductionand,moreimportantly,thetradeintheseproductsis a vital part of our regional water picture. Over time I came to realise that our economies and ultimately our people in this region are inexorably bound by these flows, most of which take place spontaneously driven by private interest and facilitated by the market. Arguably these flows have done more for regional inte- grationanddevelopmentthananynumberofmaster-plansorinfrastructureprojects. This book makes a much-needed contribution to analysing these flows and mappingtheirimpactsandopportunitiesfortheregion,arisk-mitigationstrategyif evertherewasone.ItistimeforVirtualWatertobecomerealasevidencedbythe statement made by the President of the African Development Bank, Donald Kaberuka,describingtheKazungulaBridgeovertheZambezi(linkingZambiaand Botswana) as the single most important project which the bank is financing on the continenttoday. This bridge will reduce the transit time between thetwo countries from the current 36 hours to around an hour; and serve to link the relatively water-rich agricultural areas of western Zambia to the water-scare regions and markets to the south. Perhaps the President knew that for every tonne of maize beingcarriedbythetruckswhichone-daywillcrossthatbridgealmostathousand cubic metres of water will change hands (virtually of course)? Anton Earle Stockholm International Water Institute Preface The Climate Resilient Infrastructure Development Facility At the request of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) the Climate Resilient Infrastructure Development Facility (CRIDF) programme was introduced by the United Kingdom to support the implementation of water infrastructure in the SADC region as outlined in the Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan (RIDMP) and related SADC documents. CRIDF promotes the delivery of small- to medium-scale infrastructure across SADC through technical assistance aimed at developing sustainable pro-poor infrastructureprojects,andfacilitatingaccesstofinancetodelivertheinfrastructure. The Facility, through this infrastructure, aims to build climate resilience for poor communities across the SADC region, to enhance cooperation in shared river basins, and to build an evidence base for the national and regional benefits of cooperation. However, CRIDF recognises that small- to medium-scale infrastructure has limited impact on transboundary water management and the building of climate resilience.It was with thisinmindthat themoststrategicthemewas introduced to clearly articulated arguments for changing the way infrastructure is planned, designed, delivered and operated to build climate resilience that will address poverty and build regional cooperation. This strategic theme seeks to address the above challenges with the following mechanisms: (cid:129) Improved information/evidence will lead to “better” decisions even in the absence of effective and inclusive decision-making processes; (cid:129) Developing networks around climate resilience will stimulate engagement by interest groups in society (climate change NGOs, citizen groups, local gov- ernments and the media which enable them to advocate for pro-poor, climate resilience) within their own national policies; ix x Preface (cid:129) Brokeringrelationshipsbetweenlocalaswellasregionaldecision-makers,local governments’ community representatives, NGOs and the media. This should lead to transformational change with regard to these relationships and how knowledge/information about the planning, implementation and operation of water infrastructure is disseminated; (cid:129) Empowering stakeholders through a better understanding of climate resilience issues which will result in improved decision-making both for local needs and regional priorities; (cid:129) Creating momentum in the public and in the civil society while increasing transparency will contribute to transformational change within SADC. It is within the context of this strategic theme that the contributions covered in the book were prepared; these aim at assessing the extent to which Virtual Water, water footprint, and the water–food–energy nexus concepts could contribute to SADCs overarching integration, poverty reduction, peace dividends and economic growth objectives. Anna Entholzner