Brown, Scott Alexander William

368 Pages·2014·8.92 MB·English

by  Scott Brown

Brown, Scott Alexander William (2014) Power, perception and
policymaking: the foreign policies of the US and the EU towards
China. PhD thesis.

http://theses.gla.ac.uk/5104/

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Glasgow Theses Service
http://theses.gla.ac.uk/
[email protected]
Scott Alexander William Brown, MA (Hons), MSc.

Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Politics

School of Social and Political Sciences
College of Social Sciences
University of Glasgow

April 2014
China’s rise has put it on a trajectory to overtake the international system’s dominant powers –
the United States of America (US) and the European Union (EU) – at some point this century.
Some observers conclude that the historical pattern of such transitions catalysing great power
conflict is likely to continue with China’s ascendancy. Power-transition theory (PTT)
anticipates that the established powers will strive to maintain the status quo by extending their
relative power advantage over the rising challenger and curtailing its power where possible.
Yet the actual responses of the US and the EU have not conformed to these expectations;
instead, they have both largely welcomed China’s rise and sought to integrate it into the
international system. We can see that policymakers continually express interpretations of
China’s rise which we would not expect to find if the logic of PTT prevailed. This raises a
question: How have different interpretations of the ‘rise of China’ influenced the foreign
policies of the US and the EU towards China?

I argue that varied perceptions of the implications of China’s rise have shaped policy
preferences in ways that are inconsistent with concerns over the threat of an impending power-
transition. Policy discourse at key junctures in bilateral relations revealed that ‘China’s rise’ is
actually a contested notion and that the different interpretations in play at that point in time
affect the policymaking process in ways that cannot be accounted for from state-centric
perspectives. While China’s growing power and relations with these actors have been widely
studied, little attention is paid to how competing interpretations of China’s rise impact upon
policymakers’ preferences and the eventual responses. Despite the growing prevalence of
threat rhetoric (at least in the US), China’s rise is often conceptualised by key policymakers as
presenting considerable economic and political opportunities. In the EU, perceptions of
economic and political opportunities have not been challenged by threat interpretations and
thus its overall approach has been informed by the former with little substantive debate
amongst key actors.

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Abstract i
List of Figures iv
List of Tables v
Acknowledgements vi
Declaration viii
Abbreviations ix

Introduction 1
1. Focus of the Project and Research Question 1
2. Case Selection and Timeframe of Analysis 6
3. Analytical Approach, Methodology and Sources 13
The Analytical Framework 13
Methodology and Sources 17
4. Main Findings and Contribution 19
5. Structure of the Thesis 24

Chapter One: Handling China’s Rise: Explanations of Foreign Policy in the Academic 26
Literature
1.1 Introduction 26
1.2 Power-Transition Theory 27
1.3 US-China Relations 33
1.4 EU-China Relations 40
1.5 The Arms Embargo Debate and US-EU-China Relations 48
The Arms Embargo Debate 48
US-EU-China Relations 51
1.6 Perceptions and Policymaking 53
1.7 Conclusion 58

Chapter Two: Interpretations of the ‘Rise’ of China 60
2.1 Introduction 60
2.2 Military Threat 62
2.3 Military Non-Threat 71
2.4 Economic Threat 80
2.5 Economic Opportunity 88
2.6 Normative Threat 97
2.7 Political Opportunity 105
2.8 Conclusion 111

Chapter Three: Debating the Rise of China in US Foreign Policy 112
3.1 Introduction 112
3.2 US Foreign Policy Subsystems 114
3.3 US Responses to Key Events in the Bilateral Relationship 116
Tiananmen Crackdown 120
MFN Linkage/Delinkage 127
Taiwan Strait Crisis 133
WTO Accession & PNTR 139
EP-3 Incident 146
Anti-Satellite Test 152
3.4 Interpretations of China’s Rise and Decision-Making in the US’ Foreign Policies 159
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3.5 Conclusion 164

Chapter Four: Debating the Rise of China in European Foreign Policy 167
4.1 Introduction 167
4,2 EU Foreign Policy Subsystems 169
4.3 EU Responses to Key Events in the Bilateral Relationship 171
Tiananmen Crackdown 176
Taiwan Strait Crisis 181
Human Rights Resolutions at the UNCHR 187
WTO Accession 193
The EU-China Strategic Partnership 199
MES 205
4.4 Interpretations of China’s Rise and Decision-Making in the EU’s Foreign Policies 211
4.5 Conclusion 216

Chapter Five: The Transatlantic Arms Embargo Debate: Diverging Interpretations of the 217
Rise of China
5.1 Introduction 217
5.2 PTT Expectations and Subsystems 219
5.3 The Origins, Substance and Development of the Embargoes, 1989-2003 221
The EU’s China Arms Embargo 221
The US’ Arms Embargo 226
5.4 The Diverging Interpretations of the Rise of China in the Arms Embargo Debate 228
Proposal to Lift 234
The Beginning of the Transatlantic Debate 240
The EU Pushes On 245
The Debate Heats Up 249
The Anti-Secession Law and the EU’s Change of Heart 256
5.5 Conclusion 262

Chapter Six: Conclusions 264
6.1 Introduction 264
6.2 Main Findings 265
6.3 Implications for the Literature 278
Arms Embargo Debate Literature 278
PTT and Wider IR Literature 279
FPA/EFP Literature 282
6.4 Final Comments 284

Appendix: Methodology and Sources 286
References 288

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2.1 Views on China Becoming as Militarily Powerful as the US, 2005 64
2.2 PRC Defence Expenditure, 1989-2009 68
2.3 US Estimates of China’s Military Expenditure, 1996-2008 69
2.4 PRC and US Defence Expenditure, 1989-2009 75
2.5 PRC and EU Defence Expenditure, 1989-2009 76
2.6 GDP of the PRC, US and EU in PPP Terms, 1989-2009 83
2.7 GDP Growth for the PRC, US and EU (% Change), 1989-2009 84
2.8 US and EU Trade Balance with the PRC, 1989-2009 85
2.9 US and EU Exports to the PRC, 1989-2009 92
2.10 GDP Per Capita in PPP Terms of the PRC, US and EU, 1989-2009 93
2.11 GDP Per Capita Growth for the PRC, US and EU (% Change), 1989-2009 94
2.12 Trade as a Percentage of GDP for the PRC, US and EU, 1989-2009 95

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2.1 Summaries of Human Rights Reports, 1989-2009 103
3.1 Key Quotations from the US’ National Security Strategy Documents 118
4.1 Key Quotations from the EU’s Communication Documents 174
5.1 European Arms Exports to China, 1989-2008 224
5.2 Arms Exports of US, 1989-2008 228
6.1 Comparison of US and EU Responses to the Same Key Events 274

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Mere words cannot convey the depth of my gratitude towards those who have assisted me in
the production of this work or compensate them for their efforts. However, I would like to take
this opportunity to highlight the tremendous support I have had over the past few years. The
journey which led to this point really began in 2007 when studying for an MSc in International
Politics; Alasdair Young, as the course co-ordinator, supported my ambition to pursue a PhD
and agreed to be my supervisor and gave me faith in my own abilities. Even after moving to
Georgia, Alasdair retained his involvement in this thesis, for which I am thankful. Cian
O’Driscoll, also influential during my Masters year, joined as my supervisor in 2011 and I am
immensely grateful for his efforts. It is doubtful that I could have asked for a better
supervision team; it is no exaggeration to say that without their guidance this project would
not have come together. Their helpful feedback and constructive criticism has been crucial to
the development of my ideas.

I have been fortunate to be surrounded by an inspirational cohort of research students
throughout my studies. I am even more privileged to be able to call many of them good
friends. Ahmed, Aofei, Ariel, Dan, Elliot, Gordon, Hua, Kari, Karen, Kate, Koen, Meg, Senia,
and Valentina: thanks guys. A special mention goes to James Bilsland and Sam Robertshaw,
who have provided endless support, encouragement, conversation and entertaining distractions
as I worked through the writing up of the thesis. Outside of the PhD group, I thank Mark
Prestly for his continued friendship and trying to advance my understanding of organic
chemistry; and John Gallagher for putting me up (and putting up with me) in London whilst on
fieldwork and en route to and from conferences and fieldwork. The Politics staff at Glasgow
have continually provided me with helpful insights into my work and professional
development, especially in terms of my teaching. With respect to the latter, the administrative
staff – Caroline, Karen and Maggie – helped me extensively. Thanks also to the Politics
department at the University of Dundee for allowing me to use their facilities while writing up.

I am indebted to all those whom I interviewed during my fieldwork. There are far too many to
name, but I am grateful to all those who spoke to me and showed an interest in my work. The
thesis would be a shadow of its current self without their input, whether they have been
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directly cited or not. In addition, I extend my thanks to the helpful staff at the various libraries
and archives I visited. Financial support for fieldwork and conference attendance was
generously provided by: the Department of Politics/School of Social and Political Sciences at
Glasgow; the British International Studies Association; the European Union Studies
Association; the International Studies Association; the InBev-Baillet Latour Chair of European
Union-China Relations at the College of Europe; the McGlashan Charitable Trust; and the
University Association for Contemporary European Studies in partnership with the European
Commission.

To my immediate family, I am eternally thankful for their continued support, encouragement
and belief in my endeavours. My parents, Tommy and Nancy, in particular were supportive of
my decision to pursue my studies further, and I would not be where I am today without them. I
have also received support from my wider family including in-laws, who have shown a
continued interest in my project – especially in terms of when I would be finishing it. Ellie –
our Shih Tzu – has been a great companion and an excellent listener in the final months of
writing up.

Finally, and crucially, I thank Evonne, who was my girlfriend at the outset of my project and I
am now honoured to call my wife. Evonne encouraged me to take the opportunity to study for
a PhD and there are no words for how much her belief and support has meant to me. Her
presence at my side gives me the confidence to keep going when I might otherwise falter. It is
not just that I would not be where I am without her; I would not be the person that I am. I am
not sure if I can ever repay her for all the help she has given me over the course of this project,
but I will continue to try to find a way.

I hope I have included everyone that I should – if not, I am sorry but please rest assured it is
not that I am ungrateful, just forgetful. Yet despite all the help and support over the course of
my studies, it is appropriate to add the disclaimer that I take full responsibility for the content
presented here. All errors, inaccuracies, and typos are my responsibility alone.

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I declare that, except where explicit reference is made to the contribution of others, that this
dissertation is the result of my own work and has not been submitted for any other degree at
the University of Glasgow or any other institution.

Signature _______________________________

Printed name _Scott Brown____________________

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