British Economic Growth, 1270–1870

502 Pages·2015·5.533 MB·English

by  Stephen Broadberry, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Alexander Klein, Mark Overton, Bas van Leeuwen

British Economic Growth, 1270–1870
ThisisadefinitivenewaccountofBritain’seconomicevolutionfroma
backwaterofEuropein1270tothehuboftheglobaleconomyin1870.
AteamofleadingeconomichistoriansreconstructBritain’snational
accountsforthefirsttimerightbackintothethirteenthcenturyto
showwhatreallyhappenedquantitativelyduringthecenturiesleading
uptotheIndustrialRevolution.Contrarytotraditionalviewsofthe
earlierperiodasoneofMalthusianstagnation,theyrevealhowthe
transitiontomoderneconomicgrowthbuiltontheearlierfoundations
ofapersistentupwardtrendinGDPpercapitawhichdoubledbetween
1270and1700.Featuringcomprehensiveestimatesofpopulation,land
use,agriculturalproduction,industrialandservice-sectorproduction
andGDPpercapita,aswellasanalysisoftheirimplications,thiswill
beanessentialreferenceforanyoneinterestedinBritisheconomic
historyandtheoriginsofmoderneconomicgrowthmoregenerally.
stephen broadberry isProfessorofEconomicHistoryatthe
LondonSchoolofEconomics,ResearchThemeLeaderatCAGEand
DirectoroftheEconomicHistoryProgrammeatCEPR.
bruce m. s. campbell isEmeritusProfessorofMedievalEconomic
HistoryattheQueen’sUniversityofBelfast.
alexander klein isanAssistantProfessorattheSchoolof
Economics,UniversityofKent.
mark overton isProfessorofEconomicandSocialHistoryatthe
UniversityofExeter.
bas van leeuwen isapostdocresearcherineconomichistoryat
UtrechtUniversity.

British Economic Growth,
–
1270 1870
stephen broadberry
LondonSchoolofEconomics
bruce m. s. campbell
TheQueen’sUniversityofBelfast
alexander klein
UniversityofKent
mark overton
UniversityofExeter
and
bas van leeuwen
UtrechtUniversity
UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom
CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge.
ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof
education,learningandresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence.
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107070783
©StephenBroadberry,BruceM.S.Campbell,AlexanderKlein,MarkOvertonandBasvan
Leeuwen2015
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2015
PrintedintheUnitedKingdombyClays,StIvesplc
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationdata
Britisheconomicgrowth,1270–1870/StephenBroadberry,LondonSchool
ofEconomicsand4others.
pages cm
ISBN978-1-107-07078-3(Hardback)–ISBN978-1-107-67649-7(Paperback)
1. GreatBritain–Economicconditions. 2. Economichistory.
I. Broadberry,S.N.,editor.
HC253.B85 2015
330.941–dc23
2014026528
ISBN978-1-107-07078-3Hardback
ISBN978-1-107-67649-7Paperback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof
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Contents
Listoftables pagex
Listoffigures xvi
Listofappendices xix
Prefaceandacknowledgements xxi
Listofweights,measuresandmoney xxix
Prologue:Historicalnationalincomeaccounting xxxi
parti measuring economic growth
1
1 Population 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Thebuildingblocksofmedievalpopulationestimates 5
1.2.1 Abenchmarkfor1086 6
1.2.2 Abenchmarkfor1377 8
1.2.3 Populationtrends,1086–1317 10
1.2.4 Populationtrends,1300–1377 13
1.2.5 Populationtrends,1377–1541 15
1.3 Newpopulationestimates,1086–1541 20
1.4 Thedistributionofthepopulationbycounty 22
1.5 Englishpopulation,1541–1700 28
1.6 Britishpopulation,1700–1870 30
1.7 Conclusions 31
2 Agriculturallanduse 46
2.1 Introduction 46
2.2 ThepotentialagriculturalareaofEngland 47
2.3 Landuseinthe1830sand1871 51
v
vi contents
2.4 Changinglanduse,from1290tothemid-nineteenth
century 54
2.4.1 Theeffectsoflanddrainageandreclamation 55
2.4.2 Conversionfromtillagetopermanentgrass 57
2.4.3 Otherchangesoflanduse 64
2.5 Landusein1290 65
2.6 Landusein1086and1290 72
2.7 Arablelanduse,1270–1871 73
3 Agriculturalproduction 80
3.1 Introduction 80
3.2 Datasources 81
3.2.1 Thelate-medievalperiod,c.1250toc.1500 81
3.2.2 Theearlymodernperiod,c.1550toc.1750 84
3.2.3 Themodernperiod,c.1700toc.1870 86
3.3 ArablefarminginEngland,1270–1870 87
3.3.1 Sownacreagebycrop 87
3.3.2 Grainyields 90
3.3.3 Netoutputfromarablefarming 97
3.4 LivestockfarminginEngland,1270–1870 99
3.4.1 Stockingdensitiesandanimalnumbers 100
3.4.2 Proportionsofanimalsproducingspecificproducts
onanannualbasis 107
3.4.3 Yieldsperanimalofmilk,meatandwooland
outputsofhidesandhay 108
3.4.4 Livestocksectornetoutput 110
3.5 TotalagriculturaloutputinEngland,1270–1870 113
3.5.1 Agriculturaloutputinconstantprices 113
3.5.2 Thechangingsharesofthelivestockandarable
sectors 114
3.5.3 AgriculturaloutputduringthestatisticalDark
Age,1493–1553 120
3.6 Conclusions 124
contents vii
4 Industrialandservice-sectorproduction 130
4.1 Introduction 130
4.2 Industrialoutput 130
4.2.1 Metalsandmining 137
4.2.2 Textilesandleather 144
4.2.3 Otherindustries 150
4.2.4 Aggregateindustrialproduction 155
4.3 Service-sectoroutput 159
4.3.1 Governmentservices 162
4.3.2 Commercialandfinancialservices 165
4.3.3 Housinganddomesticservices 174
4.3.4 Aggregateservice-sectoroutput 175
4.4 Conclusions 177
5 GDPandGDPperhead 187
5.1 Introduction 187
5.2 SectoralsharesofGDP 189
5.2.1 Sectoralpriceindices 189
5.2.2 Relativeprices 192
5.2.3 Sectoraloutputshares 194
5.3 RealandnominalGDP 197
5.4 Population,realGDPandGDPperhead 203
5.5 Conclusions 214
partii analysing economic growth
245
6 RealwageratesandGDPperhead 247
6.1 Introduction 247
6.2 Income-basedandoutput-basedmeasuresofGDPperhead 250
6.2.1 Alternativenominal-wage-rateseries 252
6.2.2 Alternativeaggregatepriceindices 255
6.3 Reconcilingincome-basedandoutput-basedmeasures
ofGDPperhead 257
viii contents
6.3.1 Explainingdivergencesbetweenrealwagerates
andGDPperhead 260
6.3.2 Variationsinlaboursupplyperhead 263
6.3.3 Therepresentativenessofthewage-ratedata 265
6.4 BreakingoutoftheMalthusianinterpretation
ofpre-industrialeconomicdevelopment 266
6.4.1 TheMalthusianframework 266
6.4.2 TheSmithianalternative 270
6.5 Conclusions 276
7 Consumption 279
7.1 Introduction 279
7.2 Foodconsumption 280
7.2.1 Thekilocaloriesupplyoffoodstuffs 281
7.2.2 Trendsinkilocalorieconsumptionperhead 288
7.2.3 Alternativeestimatesofkilocalorieconsumption
perhead 292
7.3 Non-foodconsumption 295
7.3.1 Wealthpertestator 296
7.3.2 Householdgoods 297
7.4 Conclusions 302
8 Thesocialdistributionofincome 307
8.1 Introduction 307
8.2 Thedividinglinebetweensufficiencyandwant 310
8.3 Socialtablesandtheproportionsofhouseholdsliving
inpoverty 314
8.4 Conclusions 328
9 Labourproductivity 340
9.1 Introduction 340
9.2 Sectoraloutputshares 343
9.3 Sectorallabour-forceshares 345
9.3.1 Late-medievallabour-forceshares 346
contents ix
9.3.2 Labour-forceshares1688–1871 351
9.3.3 Long-runtrendsinlabour-forceshares 360
9.4 Sectorallabourproductivity 364
9.5 Conclusions 369
10 Britaininaninternationalcontext 371
10.1 Introduction 371
10.2 BritainandthereversaloffortuneswithinEurope 374
10.3 BritainandtheGreatDivergencebetweenEurope
andAsia 384
10.4 UnderstandingBritain’srisetoglobaleconomic
hegemony 387
10.5 Conclusions 397
11 Epilogue:Britisheconomicgrowth,1270–1870 402
11.1 Introduction 402
11.2 Trendsinpopulation,GDPandGDPperhead 403
11.3 Growthrates 408
11.4 Structuralchange 410
11.5 Wagerates,workintensityandconsumption 414
11.6 Incomeinequality 419
11.7 Britainincomparativeperspective 422
Bibliography 429
Index 455