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Bounded Rationality and Politics Jonathan Bendor UNIVERSITYOFCALIFORNIAPRESS Berkeley · LosAngeles · London Bounded Rationality and Politics THE AARON WILDAVSKY FORUM FOR PUBLIC POLICY EditedbyLeeFriedman ThisseriesistosustaintheintellectualexcitementthatAaronWildavskycreatedfor scholarsofpublicpolicyeverywhere.Theideasineachvolumeareinitiallypresented anddiscussedatapubliclectureandforumheldattheUniversityofCalifornia. aaron wildavsky, 1930–1993 “Yourprolificpenhasbroughtrealpoliticstothestudyofbudgeting,totheanalysis ofmyriadpublicpolicies,andtothediscoveryofthevaluesunderlyingthepolitical culturesbywhichpeopleslive.Youhaveimprovedeveryinstitutionwithwhichyou have been associated, notably Berkeley’s Graduate School of Public Policy, which asFoundingDeanyouquickenedwithyourrestlessinnovativeenergy.Advocateof freedom,mentortopolicyanalystseverywhere.” (YaleUniversity,May1993,fromtextgrantingthehonorarydegreeofDoctor ofSocialScience) 1. MissingPersons:ACritiqueofPersonhoodintheSocialSciences, byMaryDouglasandStevenNey 2. TheBridgeovertheRacialDivide:RisingInequalityandCoalitionPolitics, byWilliamJuliusWilson 3. TheNewPublicManagement:ImprovingResearchandPolicyDialogue, byMichaelBarzelay 4. FallingBehind:HowRisingInequalityHarmstheMiddleClass, byRobertH.Frank 5. GodlyRepublic:ACentristCivicBlueprintforAmerica’sFaith-BasedFuture, byJohnJ.DiIulio,Jr. 6. BoundedRationalityandPolitics,byJonathanBendor Bounded Rationality and Politics Jonathan Bendor UNIVERSITYOFCALIFORNIAPRESS Berkeley · LosAngeles · London UniversityofCaliforniaPress,oneofthemostdistinguished universitypressesintheUnitedStates,enricheslivesaround theworldbyadvancingscholarshipinthehumanities,social sciences,andnaturalsciences.Itsactivitiesaresupported bytheUCPressFoundationandbyphilanthropic contributionsfromindividualsandinstitutions.Formore information,visitwww.ucpress.edu. UniversityofCaliforniaPress BerkeleyandLosAngeles,California UniversityofCaliforniaPress,Ltd. London,England (cid:2)c 2010byTheRegentsoftheUniversityofCalifornia LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Boundedrationalityandpolitics/byJonathanBendor...[etal.]. p. cm.—(TheAaronWildavskyforumforpublicpolicy;6) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. isbn978-0-520-25946-1(cloth:alk.paper) isbn978-0-520-25947-8(pbk.:alk.paper) 1. Decision making—Political aspects. 2. Simon, Herbert A. (Herbert Alexander), 1916–2001. 3. Organizational behavior— Political aspects. 4. Social sciences—Philosophy. I. Bendor, JonathanB. BF441.B645 2010 320.01(cid:2)9—dc22 2009052478 ManufacturedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ThisbookisprintedonCascadesEnviro100,a100%postconsumer waste, recycled, deinked fiber. FSC recycled certified and processed chlorinefree.Itisacidfree,Ecologocertified,andmanufacturedby BioGasenergy. ForLinda, who’sunderstoodwhatit’smeant This page intentionally left blank Contents ListofFigures ix Preface xi 1. Introduction 1 JonathanBendor 2. HerbertA.Simson:PoliticalScientist 11 JonathanBendor 3. Satisficing:APrettyGoodHeuristic 48 JonathanBendor,SunilKumar,andDavidA.Siegel 4. AModelofMuddlingThrough 61 JonathanBendor 5. ThePerfectIstheEnemyoftheBest:AdaptiveversusOptimal OrganizationalReliability 93 JonathanBendorandSunilKumar 6. GarbageCanTheory 119 JonathanBendor,TerryMoe,andKenShotts 7. InstitutionsandIndividuals 163 JonathanBendor Notes 183 References 207 Index 225 Figures 1.Cognitivelyconstraineddecisionmaking. 37 2.Probabilitytransitionmatrix. 69 3.Stochasticimprovement. 70 4.Mean-preservingspread. 74 5.Therelativesuperiorityofdifferentsearchstrategies. 80 6.TheprobabilitytransitionmatrixoftheMarkovprocess. 105 7.Thepurelyincrementalprocess. 109 8.Thesimulation’sninestructuralvariants. 136 9.Anunsegmented-unsegmentedorganizationfacingalightload. 138 10.Anunsegmented-unsegmentedorganizationfacingamediumload. 139 11.Anunsegmented-unsegmentedorganizationfacingaheavyload. 141 12.Thecommitteeanditspolicyspace. 159 13.Simplemyopicvoting. 159 14.Theprocesswithfixedparticipation. 160 15.Theprocesswithfluidparticipation. 162 ix