BLUEPRINT foR AMERICA BL UE P R I N T f o R A M E R I C A EdITEd By George P. Shultz CoNTRIBUTING AUThoRS Scott W. Atlas • Michael J. Boskin John H. Cochrane • John F. Cogan James O. Ellis Jr. • James E. Goodby Eric A. Hanushek • James N. Mattis Kori Schake • George P. Shultz John B. Taylor H O O V E R I N S T I T U T I O N P R E S S Stanford University | Stanford, California With its eminent scholars and world-renowned library and archives, the Hoover Institution seeks to improve the human condition by advancing ideas that promote economic opportunity and prosperity, while securing and safeguarding peace for America and all mankind. The views expressed in its publications are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or Board of Overseers of the Hoover Institution. www.hoover.org Hoover Institution Press Publication No. 673 Hoover Institution at Leland Stanford Junior University, Stanford, California 94305-6003 Copyright © 2016 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the publisher and copyright holders. For permission to reuse material from Blueprint for America, edited by George P. Shultz, ISBN 978-0-8179-1995-5, please access www.copyright.com or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of uses. First printing 2016 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Manufactured in the United States of America The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Shultz, George Pratt, 1920– editor. Title: Blueprint for America / edited by George P. Shultz. Other titles: Hoover Institution Press publication ; 673. Description: Stanford, CA : Hoover Institution Press, 2016. | Series: Hoover Institution Press publication ; no. 673 | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016029379 | ISBN 9780817919955 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780817919962 (EPUB) | ISBN 9780817919979 (Mobipocket) | ISBN 9780817919986 (EPDF) Subjects: LCSH: United States—Politics and government—21st century. | United States—Economic policy. | National security—United States. | United States—Foreign relations—21st century. Classification: LCC E893 .B58 2016 | DDC 320.60973—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016029379 CoNTENTS Acknowledgments vii Introduction ix ChAPTER 1 The domestic Landscape Michael J. Boskin 1 IN BRIEf Spending George P. Shultz 15 ChAPTER 2 Entitlements and the Budget John F. Cogan 19 ChAPTER 3 A Blueprint for Tax Reform Michael J. Boskin 27 ChAPTER 4 Transformational health Care Reform Scott W. Atlas 35 ChAPTER 5 Reforming Regulation Michael J. Boskin 51 ChAPTER 6 National and International Monetary Reform John B. Taylor 59 ChAPTER 7 A Blueprint for Effective financial Reform John H. Cochrane 71 IN BRIEf our National human Resources George P. Shultz 85 ChAPTER 8 Education and the Nation’s future Eric A. Hanushek 89 ChAPTER 9 Trade and Immigration John H. Cochrane 109 IN BRIEf A World Awash in Change George P. Shultz 127 ChAPTER 10 Restoring our National Security James O. Ellis Jr., James N. Mattis, and Kori Schake 137 ChAPTER 11 Redefining Energy Security James O. Ellis Jr. 151 ChAPTER 12 diplomacy in a Time of Transition James E. Goodby 171 CLoSING NoTE The Art and Practice of Governance George P. Shultz 187 Notes/References 193 Contributors 207 Index 213 ACkNoWLEdGMENTS In their 1972 political economy treatise on the Garbage Can Theory of complex organizational decision-making, Michael Cohen, James March, and Johan Olsen used the example of the American university to describe a fraught nature whereby “active decision-makers and problems track one another through a series of choices without appreciable progress in solving problems.” It is an apt model. In that light, we would like to recognize our colleagues at the Hoover Institution for their help keeping the authors’ efforts on time and on track—and this Blueprint out of the garbage can: Tunku Varadarajan, Susan Schendel, and David Fedor, along with Chris Dauer and Barbara Arellano’s team at Hoover Press. George P. Shultz was the impetus and is the continued driv- ing force for this Blueprint. His counsel and friendship—and a lucid optimism toward American faculties—are an inspiration. The Authors hoover institution Stanford University vii INTRodUCTIoN Although the word “blueprint” originally referred to a detailed architectural or mechanical plan, it has grown to acquire a more metaphorical meaning. We have chosen the word deliberately be- cause it conveys our intent to offer a coherent set of ideas for the rebuilding of America. This book offers a plan for civic, economic, and security architecture in the broadest sense, for the construc- tion of a solvent America that this generation can bequeath with- out guilt to the next. America has long offered a political and economic example to the rest of the world. From its earliest days, its political principles have been rooted in universality, not narrow nationalism; and over the years, it has thrown its doors open to people from every corner of the globe. There is a reason why America draws immi- grants not only from lands that are poorer and less well-governed than our own, but also from places where people fare well. But this American ability to inspire—which we call Exception- alism—is not automatic. It takes continued efforts to be realized in a changing world. We face challenges today. Washington is rent along partisan lines, seemingly unwilling to work toward useful compromise. This ideological partisanship is compounded by de- mographic changes that are prone to exploitation by populists on the left and right. A deep recession and an anemic recovery have shaken widespread faith in policies and principles that have served this country admirably for generations. ix