Birds and Climate Change

255 Pages·2.081 MB·English

by  Moller A.P., Fiedler W., Berthold P., Yiqi L.

Preface
The climate—the average state of the atmosphere over a particular region, and
thesequenceofweathereventscharacteristicofthatpartoftheworld—notonly
varies widely in the different climatic belts around the earth from equator to
poles,buthasalsorepeatedlyundergonemoreorlesspronouncedchangesinthe
course of time. Evidence of large global climate alterations in the earth’s
geologicalpastisprovided,e.g.,byTertiaryplantremainsintheArcticandthe
presence of Jurassic coal in the Antarctic. In the European region, climate
fluctuations during the Pleistocene, with a rapid alternation between warm and
coldperiods,havehadalong-termsignificance,especiallyinviewofthefactthat
thelastIceAgepeakedlessthan20,000yearsago,andthefaunaandfloratypical
ofthepresentdayevolvedthereafter,duringthelast10,000years.Asthestudyof
climate developed into a science—climatology—the period from 1931–1960
becamedefinedasthe“normalperiod”,incomparisonwithwhichitisevermore
obvious that we are currently experiencing a progressive increase in world
temperature: a “period of global warming”. However, many people—among
themmanyscientists—arestillscepticalanduncertainastohowtheevidenceof
recent climatic warming and its possible consequences should be evaluated.
There are three main reasons for this scepticism and uncertainty. First, even a
clearly evident climatic change does not proceed without interruption; the
weather is capricious, and even a single unusual cold spell (like that in Europe
duringDecember2001)canberegardedbyscepticsas“proof”thatthereareno
grounds for speaking of a general global warming. Secondly, the short- and
longer-termweatherconditionsaresochangeablethatanindividualcannot,from
personal experience and memory, compare the weather in successive years so
accurately as to draw objective conclusions about climatic change. Systematic
changesinclimatecanonlybedemonstratedtousbymeteorologists,onthebasis
ofmanyyearsofcareful,large-scalemeasurementsandcomparisonsofaverage
values;buttheseassessmentsarenoteasyformanyofthepublictounderstand.
Thirdly and finally, many people do not make a clear distinction between the
moderate warming that has already happened in the last 100 years or so—and
which is beyond dispute—and a predicted greater warming in future, inferred
fromveryrecentexperienceandcurrentlythesubjectofvigorousdebate.
vii
viii PREFACE
In response to the marked global warming above all over the past decades,
in 1998 the UN established a special investigative committee, the
“Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” (IPCC). This international
group of experts is examining the causes of the present alterations in climate,
periodically publishes “best estimates” describing realistic expectations for
future climate changes, and offers advice to governments and the like. In the
view of the IPCC not only has the greatest warming within the last 1000 years
alreadyoccurred,buttheestimatesforafurthertemperaturerisebytheyear2100
vary between about 1.5–5.58C, ascribable to pollution of the atmosphere with
so-called greenhouse gases.
Birds, as organisms with a very active metabolism, are highly sensitive to
climatic changes, and as highly mobile creatures they are also extremely
reactive.Thus,forsomedecadesnowthebirdsofmanypartsoftheworldhave
beenexhibitingclearchangesinanumberofrespects,oftensimilarlydirectedin
differentspecies.Thesechangesaresopronouncedthat,evenifweknewnothing
about thesimultaneousclimaticwarming,wewouldbeforced toconclude that
some environmental factors have been undergoing systematic alterations that
encouraged many bird species, for example, to expand their ranges to higher
latitudes, to return earlier to breeding grounds, to stay there longer, to prolong
breeding periods etc.
Becausethebiologyofbirdshasbeenmorethoroughlyinvestigatedthanthat
of any other group of organisms, birds were pioneer indicators for changes
related to global warming; as early as 15 years ago it was possible to make
prognoses for them (Berthold, 1991: Patterns of avian migration in light of
current global “greenhouse” effects: A central European perspective. Acta XX
Congr.Int.Orn.,Christchurch1990,780–786).Sincethensuchalargeamount
ofdataonbirdshasaccumulatedthatitwasurgentlyneededtobediscussedata
specialsymposium,andthepresentproceedingsaretheresult.Itistobehoped
thatthesereportswillcontributetowardskeepingbirdsintheirpioneerrolefor
the ongoing analysis of changes and adaptations in a time of rapid climate
change—an opportunity that Charles Darwin would probably have envied. We
would like to thank all the contributors for their collaboration. Numerous
scientistsaregratefullyacknowledgedforprovidingreviewsofthechapters.The
European Science Foundation and Prof. F. Bairlein in particular provided
funding and help with organising the workshop on birds and climate change.
Finally,wewouldliketothanktheeditorsfromAcademicPress,J.Meyerand
S. Mitra, for their help and encouragement.
Peter Berthold
Anders P. Møller
Wolfgang Fiedler
Contents
ContributorstoVolume35 ........................................ v
Preface ...................................................... vii
Acknowledgements ............................................. ix
Arrival and Departure Dates
ESA LEHIKOINEN, TIM H.SPARKSand MECISLOVAS ZALAKEVICIUS
I. Summary ................................................ 1
II. ABriefHistory ............................................ 2
III. VariationofArrivalDatesDuringtheLast250Years ............... 4
IV. CurrentDataandApproaches ................................. 4
A.TypesandQualityofData ................................. 4
V. HowIsEarlierArrivalAchieved? .............................. 9
VI. Statistics ................................................ 11
VII. ConfoundingFactors ....................................... 12
VIII. OverviewofChangesofTimingintheLatterPartofthe
20thCentury ............................................. 13
A.Arrival—TrendofTiming ................................ 14
B.Arrival—RelationshiptoTemperatureandWeatherSystems ....... 20
C.Departure ............................................. 23
D.LengthofStay ......................................... 26
IX. ConsequenceofChangingTiming ............................. 27
X. FutureWork ............................................. 28
References ................................................... 28
Migratory Fuelling and Global Climate Change
FRANZ BAIRLEIN andOMMO HU¨PPOP
I. Summary ............................................... 33
II. Introduction ............................................. 33
xi
xii CONTENTS
III. ChangingStopoverHabitats ................................. 35
IV. MigratoryFuellingandSuccessfulMigration ..................... 36
V. PlasticityinMigratoryPerformance:DoesItMatter? ............... 37
VI. EnergyStoresandMigrationPerformance ....................... 38
VII. Outlook ................................................ 42
References ................................................... 44
Using Large-Scale Data from Ringed Birds for the
Investigation of Effects of Climate Change on
Migrating Birds: Pitfalls and Prospects
WOLFGANGFIEDLER, FRANZ BAIRLEINand ULRICH KO¨PPEN
I. Summary ............................................... 49
II. Introduction ............................................. 50
III. ChangesinMigrationBehaviour .............................. 51
A.TypesofChanges ....................................... 51
B.ChangesinthePresenceofIndividualsatDistinctTimes .......... 52
C.ChangesinRecoveryDistances ............................. 57
D.ChangesinRecoveryLatitude ............................. 61
E.ChangesinRecoveryDirections ............................ 61
F.ComparisonofResultsandMethods ......................... 61
IV. IdentificationofUnderlyingFactorsandtheRoleof
ClimateChange .......................................... 64
References .................................................. 66
Breeding Dates and Reproductive Performance
PETER DUNN
I. Summary ............................................... 69
II. Introduction ............................................. 70
III. ChangesinTemperature .................................... 70
IV. HowDoesTemperatureAffecttheTimingofReproduction? ......... 71
V. ChangesinLayingDateandReproductivePerformance ............. 75
VI. TheEffectofClimateChangeonParticularSpeciesandLocations ..... 80
VII. WhatCausesChangesinTimingofBreeding? .................... 83
VIII. Conclusions ............................................. 84
Acknowledgements ............................................. 85
References ................................................... 85
CONTENTS xiii
Global Climate Change Leads to
Mistimed Avian Reproduction
MARCEL E. VISSER, CHRISTIAAN BOTH and
MARCEL M.LAMBRECHTS
I. Summary ............................................... 89
II. Introduction ............................................. 90
III. WhyGlobalClimateChangeWillLeadto
ReproductiveMistiming .................................... 92
A.ChangesintheEnvironmentofDecision-Making ............... 93
B.ChangesintheEnvironmentofSelection ..................... 95
C.ChangesinSynchronisation ............................... 97
IV. ConsequencesofReproductiveMistiming ....................... 98
V. AdaptationstoReproductiveMistiming ........................ 101
A.ResponsesofIndividuals ................................ 101
B.PopulationResponses ................................... 102
VI. DiscussionandConclusions ................................ 104
Acknowledgements ........................................... 108
References ................................................. 108
Analysis and Interpretation of Long-Term Studies
Investigating Responses to Climate Change
ANDERS P. MØLLER and JUHA MERILA¨
I. Summary .............................................. 111
II. Introduction ............................................ 112
III. MethodologicalConsiderations .............................. 113
A.ChoiceofPhenologicalVariables .......................... 113
B.ChoiceofClimateVariables .............................. 115
C.ChoiceofStatisticalModels .............................. 118
D.AccountingforVariationinRecaptureProbabilities ............. 119
E.RepresentativenessoftheData ............................ 119
IV. InterpretationalConsiderations .............................. 120
A.PhenotypicPlasticity ................................... 121
B.GeneticChange ....................................... 121
C.Migration ............................................ 125
V. ConclusionsandFurtherDirections ........................... 126
Acknowledgements .......................................... 127
References ................................................ 128
xiv CONTENTS
Photoperiodic Response and the Adaptability of Avian Life
Cycles to Environmental Change
TIMOTHYCOPPACK andFRANCISCOPULIDO
I. Summary .............................................. 131
II. Introduction ............................................ 132
A.GeneralIntroduction .................................... 132
B.PhotoperiodicControlofAvianSeasonality ................... 133
C.PhotoperiodicResponseandEnvironmentalChange ............. 135
III. ResponsestoTemporalandSpatialVariationin
PhotoperiodicConditions .................................. 138
A.PhotoperiodicResponseofMigrantstoChangesin
HatchingDate ........................................ 138
B.PhotoperiodicResponseofMigrantstoNovelWinteringRanges ... 143
C.TropicalBirdsandTheirPotentialforPolewardRange
Extension ............................................ 145
D.BirdsinUrbanHabitatsandtheEffectofArtificialLight ......... 146
IV. Conclusion ............................................. 147
References ................................................. 147
Microevolutionary Response to Climatic Change
FRANCISCOPULIDOand PETER BERTHOLD
I. Summary .............................................. 151
II. Introduction ............................................ 152
III. MicroevolutionaryChange—MechanismsandApproaches .......... 155
IV. TheProspectiveImportanceofDifferentEvolutionary
ProcessestoAdaptiveEvolutionaryChange ..................... 159
A.TheResponseofBirdPopulationstoNaturalSelection .......... 159
B.TheEffectsofGeneFlow ................................ 161
C.TheEffectsofInbreeding ................................ 162
V. ChangesintheLevelofGeneticVariation ...................... 163
VI. AdaptiveChangesinLayingDateinResponsetoClimateChange .... 165
VII. MicroevolutionaryResponseofMigratoryBehaviour .............. 166
A.TheAdaptabilityofMigratoryBehaviour:TheRoleof
GeneticVariancesandCovariances ......................... 166
B.ConstraintsonAdaptiveEvolutionofMigration ............... 168
C.TheStudyofAdaptiveChangeinMigratoryBirds .............. 169
D.PhenotypicChangesinMigratoryBehaviourand
TheirPotentialCauses .................................. 170
E.MicroevolutionaryChangeinMigratoryBehaviour ............. 172
VIII. ConclusionsandOutlook .................................. 175
CONTENTS xv
Acknowledgements ........................................... 176
References ................................................. 176
Climate Influences on Avian Population Dynamics
BERNT-ERIK SÆTHER, WILLIAM J. SUTHERLAND and
STEINAR ENGEN
I. Summary .............................................. 185
II. Introduction ............................................ 186
III. ImpactofWeatheronAvianPopulationDynamics ................ 187
IV. ModellingPopulationDynamicalConsequencesof
ChangesinClimate ....................................... 197
A.ChangesinMeanDemographicVariables .................... 197
B.ChangesintheEnvironmentalStochasticity ................... 198
C.TrendsinClimate ...................................... 200
V. Discussion ............................................. 203
Acknowledgements ........................................... 205
References ................................................. 205
Importance of Climate Change for the Ranges,
Communities and Conservation of Birds
KATRIN BO¨HNING-GAESE and NICOLE LEMOINE
I. Summary .............................................. 211
II. Introduction ............................................ 212
III. ChangesinClimate ....................................... 213
IV. HowtoAnalysetheEffectofClimateChange ................... 214
V. InfluenceofClimateChangeontheRangesofBirds .............. 216
A.CorrelationsofClimaticFactorsandRangeBoundaries .......... 216
B.ModelledConsequencesofClimateChangefor
RangeBoundaries ..................................... 217
C.ObservedConsequencesofClimateChangefor
RangeBoundaries ..................................... 220
VI. InfluenceofClimateChangeonAvianCommunities .............. 224
A.CorrelationsofClimaticFactorsandAvian
Communities ......................................... 224
B.ModelledConsequencesofClimateChangefor
AvianCommunities .................................... 225
C.ObservedConsequencesofClimateChangefor
AvianCommunities .................................... 229
VII. ConservationConsequencesofClimateChange .................. 230
xvi CONTENTS
VIII. ConclusionsandFutureDirections ............................ 231
References .................................................. 233
The Challenge of Future Research on Climate Change
and Avian Biology
ANDERS P. MØLLER, PETER BERTHOLD and
WOLFGANGFIEDLER
I. Summary .............................................. 237
II. Introduction ............................................ 238
III. TheEffectsofClimateonAvianBiology ....................... 238
IV. PhenotypicPlasticityorMicro-EvolutionaryChange .............. 241
V. ComplexAnnualCycles ................................... 242
VI. LatitudinalGradientsasModelSystems ........................ 242
VII. Conclusions ............................................ 243
References .................................................. 244
SubjectIndex ................................................ 247
CumulativeListofTitles ........................................ 253
Contributors to Volume 35
FRANZ BAIRLEIN, Institute of Avian Research ‘Vogelwarte, Helgoland’
An der Vogelwarte 21, D-26386Wilhelmshaven, Germany
PETER BERTHOLD, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte
Radolfzell, Schlossallee 2,D-78315Radolfzell,Germany
KATRIN BO¨HNING-GAESE, Institute for Zoology, Dept. V-Ecology,
Johannes Gutenberg – University Mainz, Becherweg 13, D-55099 Mainz,
Germany
CHRISTIAAN BOTH, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, PO Box 40,
Boterhoeksestraat 22,NL-6666ZG Heteren,Netherlands
TIMOTHYCOPPACK, Institute ofAvian Research ‘VogelwarteHelgoland’,
Inselstation, D-27494Heligoland, Germany
PETER DUNN, Department ofBiological Sciences, UniversityofWisconsin-
Milwaukee, PO Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA
STEINAR ENGEN, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian
University ofScience and Technology,N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
WOLFGANG FIEDLER, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte
Radolfzell, Schlossallee 2,D-78315Radolfzell,Germany
OMMO HU¨PPOP, Institute of Avian Research ‘Vogelwarte Helgoland’,
Inselstation, D-27494Heligoland, Germany
ULRICH KO¨PPEN, Hiddensee Bird Ringing Centre, LUNG Mecklenburg-
Vorpommern, Badenstr. 18, D-18439 Stralsund,Germany
MARCELM.LAMBRECHTS, CNRS/CEFE,1919RoutedeMende,F-34293
Montpellier Cedex 5, France
ESALEHIKOINEN, DepartmentofBiology,UniversityofTurku,FIN-20014
TURKU, Finland
NICOLE LEMOINE, Institute for Zoology, Dept. V-Ecology, Johannes
Gutenberg – University Mainz,Becherweg 13, D-55099 Mainz, Germany
JUHAMERILA¨, EcologicalGeneticsResearch Unit,DepartmentofEcology
and Systematics, PO Box 65, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki,
Finland
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