Biomass Resource Analyses & Future Bioenergy Scenarios

497 Pages·2015·14.67 MB·English

Biomass Resource Analyses & Future
Bioenergy Scenarios

A Thesis submitted to The University of Manchester for the degree of:
Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering
In the Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences

2014

Andrew James Welfle
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Mechanical Aerospace
& Civil Engineering
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
Table of Contents List

Abstract 10
Declaration 11
Copyright Statement 12
Acknowledgements 13
PhD Programme Outputs 14
1) Published Work 14
2) Other Work 14
3) Notable Activities 15
4) Presentations 15
Chapter 1 - Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 17
1.1 Opening Statement 18
1.2 Research Context 20
1.2.1 The Wider Research Context - Climate Change 20
1.2.2 Energy Profiles 24
1.2.3 The Global Energy Consumption Profile 25
1.2.4 UK Energy Consumption Profile 26
1.2.5 Renewable Energy & the UK’s Renewables Profile 28
1.2.6 Energy Scenarios – Modelling Future Trends 30
1.2.7 UK Climate Change, Energy & Bioenergy Policy 31
1.2.8 The Emergence & Development of the Climate Change Policy Agenda 31
1.2.9 UK Climate Change & Renewable Energy Policy Timeline 32
1.2.10 Key UK & EU Policy Mechanisms & Instruments 34
1.3 Thesis Rationale 40
1.4 Research Problem Statement 41
1.5 Research Aims & Objectives 42
1.5.1 Research Aim 1 42
1.5.2 Research Aim 2 42
1.5.3 Research Aim 3 43
1.6 Thesis Storyline 43
1.6.1 Chapter 1 – Introduction 44
1.6.2 Chapter 2 – Biomass as a Renewable Energy Resource 44
1.6.3 Chapter 3 – Biomass Resource Modelling 44
1.6.4 Chapter 4 – Developing the Biomass Resource Model 44
1.6.5 Chapter 5 – Drivers Influencing Biomass Resource Availability & Bioenergy 45
1.6.6 Chapter 6 – UK Biomass Resource Scenarios 45
1.6.7 Chapter 7 – The Future UK Bioenergy Sector 46
1.6.8 Chapter 8 – Global Biomass Trade: Supply, Demand, Limitations & Sustainability 47
1.6.9 Chapter 9 – Case Study: Brazil’s Biomass Resource Analysis 47
1.6.10 Chapter 10 – An Alternative UK Bioenergy Strategy 48
1.6.11 Chapter 11 – Thesis Conclusions 48
1.6.12 Thesis References 48
1.6.13 Thesis Appendices 48
Chapter 2 - Biomass as a Renewable Energy Resource .................................................................................. 49
2.1 Biomass as a Renewable Energy Resource 50
2.1.1 A Renewed Interest in Biomass as a Fuel 50
2.1.2 The Storage of Energy within Biomass 50
2.1.3 Biomass Composition, Characteristics & Fuel Properties 51
2.1.4 The Variable Characteristics of Biomass Materials 55
2.1.5 The Negative Impacts of Biomass for Energy Generation 56
2
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
2.2 Biomass Feedstocks, Resources & Energy Pathways 58
2.2.1 Categories of Biomass 58
2.2.2 Lignocellulosic Biomass Resources 62
2.3 Energy Generation from Biomass & Conversion Pathways 64
2.3.1 Biomass Conversion Pathways 64
2.3.2 Direct Combustion Processes 65
2.3.3 Thermochemical Conversion Processes 68
2.3.4 Biochemical Conversion Processes 71
2.3.5 Comparing Biochemical versus Thermochemical Processes 73
2.3.6 Conversion of Lignocellulosic Materials 74
2.3.7 The UK’s Bioenergy & Bio-refining Systems & Infrastructure 74
Chapter 3 - Biomass Resource Modelling ......................................................................................................... 76
3.1 Biomass Resource Modelling 77
3.1.1 An Extensive Global Resource 77
3.1.2 An Introduction to Resource Modelling 77
3.1.3 Biomass Resource Modelling 81
3.1.4 Estimating the Global Biomass Resource 84
3.1.5 Modelling the UK’s Indigenous Biomass Resource 86
Chapter 4 - Developing the Biomass Resource Model ..................................................................................... 89
4.1 Introducing the Biomass Resource Modelling 90
4.1.1 Aims & Objectives of the Biomass Resource Model 90
4.1.2 Influential Studies & Research 93
4.1.3 New Modelling Knowledge & Niche 94
4.1.4 The Biomass Resource Model Structure 96
4.1.5 Constructing & Navigating the Biomass Resource Model 100
4.1.6 Applying the Biomass Resource Model 103
4.2 UK BRM - Developing the Stage One Methodology 106
4.2.1 UK Population Dynamics 106
4.2.2 UK Built-Up Land Area 107
4.2.3 UK Forests, Woodlands & Plantations 108
4.2.4 UK Food & Agriculture Systems 109
4.2.5 Agriculture & Biomass Productivity Yields 112
4.2.6 Land Area to Meet Food Commodity Demands 115
4.2.7 UK Land Availability 116
4.3 UK BRM - Stage One Modelling Mechanics 117
4.3.1 Stage One Analysis Calculation Equations Key 117
4.3.2 Modelling Food & Agriculture Systems to 2050 118
4.3.3 Modelling Land-Use Dynamics to 2050 119
4.4 UK BRM - Developing the Stage Two Methodology 121
4.4.1 UK Forest System Productivity & Characteristics 121
4.4.2 Forestry Residues 126
4.4.3 Forestry-Industry Dynamics 127
4.4.4 Industrial Residues 130
4.4.5 Agricultural Residues 130
4.4.6 Straw Agricultural Residues 131
4.4.7 Slurry Agricultural Residues 132
4.4.8 Arboriculture (Arb) Residues 132
4.4.9 Wastes 133
4.4.10 Sewage Waste 136
4.4.11 Grown Biomass & Energy Crops 136
4.5 UK BRM - Stage Two Modelling Mechanics 139
4.5.1 Stage Two Analysis Calculation Equations Key 139
4.5.2 Modelling Forest-Industry Dynamics 140
3
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
4.5.3 Modelling Biomass Resource Availability Dynamics 141
4.6 UK BRM – Developing the Stage Three Methodology 144
4.6.1 Resource Availability for the Bioenergy Sector 144
4.6.2 Energy Content of Resources 145
4.6.3 Developing a Methodology for Analysing Bioenergy Potentials 145
4.6.4 Pre-Treatment Pathways 146
4.6.5 Energy Conversion Pathways 146
4.6.6 Preferred Bioenergy Conversion Pathway 147
4.6.7 Total Bioenergy Potential 148
4.6.8 Energy Targets & Demands 149
4.7 UK BRM - Stage Three Modelling Mechanics 150
4.7.1 Stage Three Analysis Calculation Equations Key 150
4.7.2 Modelling Bioenergy Potential of Available Biomass Resources 150
Chapter 5 - Drivers Influencing Biomass Resource Availability & Bioenergy ........................................... 153
5.1 Drivers Influencing Biomass Resource Availability 154
5.1.1 Biomass Resource Drivers 155
5.1.2 The BRM’s Analysis Drivers 156
5.1.3 Discussion of Drivers Analysed within the BRM 157
5.1.4 Discussion of Drivers Not Directly Analysed within the BRM 164
5.2 UK BRM Drivers Sensitivity Analysis 170
5.2.1 Developing a Sensitivity Analysis Methodology 170
5.2.2 UK Baseline Scenario – Forecast Biomass Resource Availability 171
5.2.3 Biomass Resources Demonstrating Potential for the UK Bioenergy Sector 176
5.2.4 BRM Drivers Sensitivity Analysis 177
5.2.5 Key Chapter & Sensitivity Analysis Outputs & Conclusions 191
Chapter 6 - UK Biomass Resource Scenarios ................................................................................................. 194
6.1 Developing UK Biomass Resource Scenarios 195
6.1.1 An Introduction to Scenario Based Analysis 195
6.1.2 Developing Biomass Resource Scenarios 197
6.1.3 Developing the UK Food Focus (Foo-F) Biomass Resource Scenario 199
6.1.4 Developing the UK Economic Focus (Eco-F) Biomass Resource Scenario 200
6.1.5 Developing the UK Conservation Focus (Con-F) Biomass Resource Scenario 202
6.1.6 Developing the UK Energy Focus (Ene-F) Biomass Resource Scenario 204
6.2 UK Biomass Availability & Bioenergy 207
6.2.1 Biomass Resource Scenarios – Land Utilisation Forecasts 207
6.2.2 Biomass Resource Scenarios – Resource Availability Forecasts 210
6.2.3 Biomass Resource Scenarios – Bioenergy Potential Forecasts 214
6.2.4 Key Scenario Analyses Conclusions 217
Chapter 7 - The Future UK Energy & Bioenergy System ............................................................................ 219
7.1 Current & Future UK Bioenergy Sector 220
7.1.1 The Current & Future UK Bioenergy Sector 221
7.1.2 The UK Bio-Heat Sector 222
7.1.3 The UK Bio-Power Sector 224
7.1.4 The UK Bio-Fuel Sector 228
7.1.5 UK Biomass Resource Import Forecasts 230
7.1.6 Trends and Conclusions of Future UK Bioenergy 232
7.2 Biomass Resource Balance Analysis 234
7.2.1 Resource Balance Analysis Methodology 234
7.2.2 Resource Balance Analysis Results 237
7.2.3 Resource Balance Analysis Discussions 238
7.2.4 Chapter Conclusions & Consequences for the Future UK Bioenergy Sector 240
Chapter 8 - Global Biomass Trade - Supply, Demand, Limitations & Sustainability ................................ 242
8.1 Global Biomass Trade – Supply, Demand, Limitations & Sustainability 243
4
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
8.1.1 Increasing Global Demand for Biomass 243
8.1.2 Global Biomass Trade Markets 244
8.1.3 Biomass Resources Key Global Trade Flows 247
8.1.4 Global Biomass Trade Limitations & Uncertainty 249
8.1.5 Sustainability of Global Biomass Resource Production 252
8.1.6 Chapter Conclusions & Consequences for the UK Bioenergy Sector 258
Chapter 9 - Case Study: Brazilian Biomass Resource Analyses ................................................................... 260
9.1 Case Study – Brazil’s Biomass Resource Analyses 261
9.2 The Brazil Biomass Resource Model – Stage One Analyses 263
9.2.1 Brazil Population Dynamics 263
9.2.2 Brazil Built-Up Land Area 263
9.2.3 Brazil Forests, Woodlands & Plantations 264
9.2.4 Brazil Food & Agriculture Systems 264
9.2.5 Agriculture & Biomass Productivity Yields 265
9.2.6 Land Area to Meet Food Commodity Demands 265
9.2.7 Brazil Land Availability 266
9.3 The Brazil Biomass Resource Model – Stage Two Analyses 267
9.3.1 Forestry System Productivity & Characteristics 267
9.3.2 Forestry Residues 270
9.3.3 Industrial Residues 270
9.3.4 Straw Agricultural Residues 271
9.3.5 Slurry Agricultural Residues 271
9.3.6 Arboriculture Residues 272
9.3.7 Wastes 273
9.3.8 Sewage Waste 274
9.3.9 Grown Biomass & Energy Crops 275
9.4 The Brazil Biomass Resource Model – Stage Three Analyses 278
9.5 Brazil Biomass Resource Availability 279
9.5.1 Brazil Biomass Supply Chain Dynamics to 2030 279
9.5.2 Brazil Baseline Scenario – Land-Use Analysis 280
9.5.3 Brazil Baseline Scenario – Biomass Resource Availability Analysis 282
9.6 Brazil Bioenergy Scenarios 286
9.6.1 Brazil Current Energy System 286
9.6.2 Brazil’s Future Energy Strategy & Targets 291
9.6.3 Global Comparisons – Leading Energy Targets & Strategies 294
9.6.4 Developing Brazil Bioenergy Scenarios 296
9.6.5 Brazil Bioenergy Scenarios – Bioenergy Potentials 302
9.6.6 Brazil Bioenergy Scenarios – Resource Balance Analysis 304
9.6.7 Chapter Conclusions & Consequences for the Future UK Bioenergy Sector 307
Chapter 10 - An Alternative UK Bioenergy Strategy .................................................................................... 310
10.1 An Alternative UK Bioenergy Strategy 311
10.1.1 Thesis Analysis Key Conclusions 312
10.2 Alternative Policy & Strategy Options 315
10.2.1 UK Grown Biomass & Energy Crops 315
10.2.2 Plant Based Agricultural Residues 318
10.2.3 Animal Based Agricultural Residues 322
10.2.4 Household & Organic Wastes 328
10.2.5 Promoting the UK Bio-Heat Sector 331
Chapter 11 - Thesis Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 336
11.1 Thesis Conclusions 337
11.1.1 Summary of Thesis Conclusions 337
11.2 Deductions & Implications 341
11.2.1 Conclusion – Develop a Bioenergy Sector Compatible with UK Resources 341
5
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
11.2.2 Conclusion - Developing Mobilisation & Utilisation Strategies 342
11.2.3 Conclusion – Placing Greater Focus on Indigenous Resources 343
11.3 Original Contributions to Knowledge 345
11.3.1 Biomass Resource Model 345
11.3.2 Food & Industry Biomass Demands 347
11.3.3 UK Indigenous Biomass Resource Analyses 347
11.3.4 Brazil Biomass Resource Forecasts & Bioenergy Scenarios 348
11.4 Limitations & Further Work 350
11.4.1 Changing Food Diets 350
11.4.2 Climate Change Impacts 350
11.4.3 Spatial Scale & Distribution of Modelling 351
11.4.4 Energy Conversion Modelling 351
11.4.5 Chemical Industry 352
11.4.6 Supply Chain Drivers 352
11.5 Concluding Statement 354
Thesis References .............................................................................................................................................. 356
Thesis Appendices............................................................................................................................................. 380

85,995 Words
6
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
Tables List
Table 1.1: Climate Change Characteristics of the Core Greenhouse Gases ......................................................... 21
Table 2.1: Comparison of Typical Fuel Characteristic Values for Biomass & Fossil Fuels ................................. 53
Table 2.2: Typical Pyrolysis of Wood Product Yields ......................................................................................... 69
Table 2.3: Comparison of Biochemical & Thermochemical Biofuel & Energy Yields ....................................... 73
Table 2.4: Summary of the UK and EU’s Operating & Planned Bioenergy Systems .......................................... 75
Table 3.1: Global Biomass Resource Estimates ................................................................................................... 77
Table 3.2: Summary & Characteristics of Existing Biomass Resource Models ................................................... 84
Table 4.1: Summary of the Analysed Biomass Categories & Specific Resources ............................................... 99
Table 4.2: Summary of Excel Tabs within the BRM .......................................................................................... 101
Table 4.3: Overview of the BRM’s Main Control Panel Variables .................................................................... 103
Table 4.4: UK Population Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 107
Table 4.5: FAO Food Commodity Datasets Utilised Within the BRM .............................................................. 110
Table 4.6: References Providing Data on Current UK Agriculture Productivity Yields .................................... 114
Table 4.7: References Providing Data on Future Agriculture Productivity Yields ............................................. 115
Table 4.8: Equation Calculations Key for the BRM’s Stage One Analyses ....................................................... 117
Table 4.9: Forest Productivity Scenarios for Forestry Commission Estate Forests ............................................ 122
Table 4.10: Forest Productivity Scenario for Forest Systems within the Private Sector Estate .......................... 124
Table 4.11: Waste Streams & Availability for the Bioenergy Sector ................................................................. 134
Table 4.12: DEFRA Scenarios for UK Waste Generation to 2050 ..................................................................... 135
Table 4.13: DEFRA Scenarios for UK Waste Management to 2050.................................................................. 136
Table 4.14: BRM Default Biomass Resource & Energy Crop Planting Strategies ............................................ 138
Table 4.15: Equation Calculations Key for the BRM’s Stage Two Analyses .................................................... 139
Table 4.16: Equation Calculations Key for the BRM’s Stage Three Analyses .................................................. 150
Table 5.1: Drivers Influencing Biomass Resources & the BRM’s Analysis Capability ..................................... 156
Table 5.2: Summary of Key Drivers Influencing UK Biomass Resource Availability ...................................... 157
Table 5.3: Reports Studies & Research Influencing the UK Baseline Scenario ................................................. 171
Table 5.4: UK BRM Drivers Influencing the Availability of Grown Resources ................................................ 179
Table 5.5: UK BRM Drivers Influencing the Availability of Residue Resources .............................................. 184
Table 5.6: UK BRM Drivers Influencing the Availability of Waste Resources ................................................. 189
Table 5.7: Research Summary Ranking Indigenous Resource Influences & Contributors ................................ 192
Table 6.1: UK BRM Biomass Resource Scenarios ............................................................................................ 198
Table 6.2: Summary of Biomass Resource Scenario Characteristics & Forecast Assumptions ......................... 206
Table 7.1: Bioenergy Contribution of Resources within the UK Bioenergy Sector (2012)................................ 221
Table 7.2: UK Bioenergy Sector Installed Capacity & Generation (2012) ........................................................ 221
Table 7.3: UK Renewable Energy Roadmap (2011) Near-Term Bioenergy Estimates by 2020 ........................ 222
Table 7.4: Feedstock Co-fired with Fossil Fuels in the UK ................................................................................ 227
Table 7.5: UK Bioenergy Sector Utilisation of Feedstocks to Produce Biofuels ............................................... 230
Table 7.6: Future Bioenergy Sector Trends and Key Resource Demands .......................................................... 233
Table 7.7: Scenarios Mid and Long-Term Forecasts of UK Biofuels Demand .................................................. 236
Table 7.8: UK BRM Resources Compatible with Future UK Bioenergy Sector Demands ................................ 236
Table 9.1: Brazil Population Forecasts ............................................................................................................... 263
Table 9.2: Brazil Urban Development Land Area Forecasts (Hectares) ............................................................. 264
Table 9.3: Brazil BRM Forestry Growth Scenarios ............................................................................................ 269
Table 9.4: Brazil BRM Forestry Productivity Scenarios .................................................................................... 270
Table 9.5: Waste Streams & Availability for the Bioenergy Sector ................................................................... 273
Table 9.6: Reports Studies and Research Influencing the Brazil Baseline Scenarios ......................................... 280
Table 9.7: Overview of Brazil Bioenergy Scenario Themes and Targets ........................................................... 302
Table 9.8: Brazil BRM Resources Identified as Potentially Suitable for Exportation ........................................ 305
Table 10.1: UK Plant Based Farming Renewable Energy Characteristics ......................................................... 318
Table 10.2: UK Animal Based Farming Renewable Energy Characteristics ..................................................... 323

7
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
Figures List
Figure 1.1: Combustion Greenhouse Gas Calculations ........................................................................................ 20
Figure 1.2: Schematic Demonstrating the Greenhouse Effect .............................................................................. 21
Figure 1.3: The Utilisation of Fossil Fuels since the Industrial Revolution ......................................................... 22
Figure 1.4: Graphs Demonstrating the Atmospheric CO since the Industrial Revolution ................................... 23
2
Figure 1.5: Energy Source Contributions to Global Primary Energy Consumption (2011) ................................. 25
Figure 1.6: Global Discrepancy between Population and Energy Consumption .................................................. 26
Figure 1.7: UK Total Annual Primary Energy Consumption 1970-2010 ............................................................. 27
Figure 1.8: Contribution of Energy Source to UK’s Annual Energy Consumption 1970-2010 ........................... 27
Figure 1.9: Contribution of the UK Renewable Energy Technologies in 2010 .................................................... 30
Figure 1.10: Development Timeline of the UK’s Key Climate Change & Energy Policies ................................. 34
Figure 1.11: Energy Policy Framework ................................................................................................................ 35
Figure 2.1: The Photosynthesis Reaction ............................................................................................................. 51
Figure 2.2: Moisture Content Calculations ........................................................................................................... 52
Figure 2.3: The Principal Components of Biomass Material ................................................................................ 55
Figure 2.4: Biomass Combustion Reactions ......................................................................................................... 56
Figure 2.5: Typical Biomass Conversion Pathway & Pollutants .......................................................................... 56
Figure 2.6: Biomass Resource Categories & the Key Life-Cycle Processes ........................................................ 59
Figure 2.7: Overview of Key Biomass Conversion Pathways & Products ........................................................... 64
Figure 2.8: Summary of the Core Biomass Conversion Pathways & Resulting Products .................................... 65
Figure 2.9: Biomass Gasification Conversion Processes ...................................................................................... 70
Figure 3.1: Non-Renewable Resource Economic Dynamics ................................................................................ 79
Figure 3.2: Ratio of Global Fossil Fuel Consumption to Years of Remaining Reserve ....................................... 80
Figure 3.3: Biomass Modelling Resolution Potentials.......................................................................................... 82
Figure 3.4: Typical Structure & Analysis Flow for a Resource Focused Biomass Model ................................... 83
Figure 3.5: Range of Global Biomass Resource Estimates .................................................................................. 85
Figure 3.6: Range of Biomass Resource and Related Land Category Estimates .................................................. 86
Figure 4.1: The Biomass Resource Model Methodology Architecture ................................................................ 97
Figure 4.2: UK Population Forecasts .................................................................................................................. 107
Figure 4.3: UK Change in Built-Up Area Forecasts ........................................................................................... 108
Figure 4.4: UK Forested Area Forecasts ............................................................................................................ 109
Figure 4.5: Evaluating Productivity Yields within the BRM .............................................................................. 113
Figure 4.6: Forecast Land Area Required to Meet Total Food Commodity Demands ....................................... 115
Figure 4.7: Calculation Equations Applied within the BRM Agricultural System & Food Demand Analyses.. 119
Figure 4.8: Calculation Equations Applied within the BRM’s Land-Use Analyses ........................................... 120
Figure 4.9: Forestry Commission Estate Standing Volume Forecasts ................................................................ 123
Figure 4.10: Forestry Commission Productivity Forecasts ................................................................................. 123
Figure 4.11: Private Sector Estate Standing Volume Forecasts .......................................................................... 125
Figure 4.12: Private Sector Estate Productivity Forecasts .................................................................................. 125
Figure 4.13: Forestry System & Industry Dynamics Analysed within the BRM................................................ 129
Figure 4.14: Analysis of Straw Agricultural Residues within the BRM ............................................................. 131
Figure 4.15: Analysis of Slurry Agricultural Residues within the BRM ............................................................ 132
Figure 4.16: Modelling Future Planting Strategies within the BRM .................................................................. 137
Figure 4.17: Modelling Resource Flows within the BRM’s Forestry-Industry Analysis Module ...................... 141
Figure 4.18: Calculation Equations Applied within the BRM’s Resource Availability Analyses ...................... 143
Figure 4.19: Modelling the Biomass Resource Bioenergy Conversion Pathway ............................................... 145
Figure 4.20: Description of BRM’s Resource-Bioenergy Filter Analysis Methodology .................................... 146
Figure 4.21: Preferred Bioenergy Conversion Pathways within the BRM ......................................................... 148
Figure 4.20: Analysing the Bioenergy Potentials Generated from Resources within the BRM ......................... 149
Figure 4.22: Biomass Flow & Modelling Mechanics of the BRM’s Pre-Treatment Processing Analyses ........ 151
Figure 4.23: Calculation Equations Applied within the BRM’s Bioenergy Potential Analyses ......................... 152
Figure 5.1: Availability of UK Biomass Resource Categories within the Baseline Scenario ............................. 173
Figure 5.2: UK Baseline Scenario Biomass Resource Availability .................................................................... 176
Figure 5.3: UK Baseline Scenario – Proportional Contribution of Key Biomass Resources ............................. 177
Figure 5.4: Biomass Grown Resources Sensitivity Analysis Radar Chart ......................................................... 178
Figure 5.5: Biomass Residue Resources Sensitivity Analysis Radar Chart ........................................................ 183
Figure 5.6: Biomass Waste Resources Sensitivity Analysis Radar Chart ........................................................... 188
Figure 6.1: Visual Conceptualisation of Scenario Pathways Based Analysis ..................................................... 196
Figure 6.2: UK BRM Scenarios Analysis - UK Land Utilisation Profiles ......................................................... 208
8
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
Figure 6.3: UK BRM Scenarios Analyses – Biomass Resource Availabilities .................................................. 212
Figure 6.4: UK BRM Scenario Analyses – Forecast Bioenergy Potentials & Energy Target Comparisons ...... 216
Figure 7.1: Capacity of Operational and Planned UK Bio-power Projects ........................................................ 225
Figure 7.2: Potential Delivered Energy from Use of Biomass in Transport ....................................................... 229
Figure 7.3: Forecast Range of Domestic & Imported Biomass Resource Utilisation ......................................... 231
Figure 7.4: Analysis of UK Wood Fibre Resource Availability, Future Demand & Deficits to 2025 ............... 237
Figure 7.5: Analysis of UK Indigenous Biofuel Energy, Future Demand & Deficits in 2030 ........................... 238
Figure 8.1: Predominant Global Trade Flows of Biomass Resources for Energy End Uses .............................. 245
Figure 9.1: Brazil Forestry Area & Designations to 2050 within the Scenario 3 Pathway ................................. 269
Figure 9.2: Brazil Plantation Strategy to 2050 within the Brazil Baseline Scenarios ......................................... 277
Figure 9.3: Brazil Land-Use within the Baseline Scenario to 2030 .................................................................... 281
Figure 9.4: Brazil Biomass Resource Availability within the Baseline Scenario to 2030 .................................. 283
Figure 9.5: Brazil Baseline Scenario – Validation of Wood Resource Availability Forecasture ....................... 284
Figure 9.6: Brazil Baseline Scenario – Validation of Energy Crop Availability Forecast.................................. 285
Figure 9.7: Energy Technologies Contributing to Brazil’s Total Primary Energy Supply (2011) ..................... 287
Figure 9.8: Fuels & Resources Contributing to Generate Brazil’s Power (2011) ............................................... 288
Figure 9.9: Fuels & Resources Utilised within Brazil’s Transport Sector (2011) .............................................. 289
Figure 9.10: Brazil Bioenergy Scenarios – Contribution from Energy Technologies ........................................ 298
Figure 9.11: Brazilian Primary Energy & Bioenergy Demand Forecasts ........................................................... 303
Figure 9.12: Brazilian Bioenergy Sector Resource Demands & Surplus Resources Available for Export ........ 306
Figure 10.1: Density of Plant Based Agriculture Compared to Transport Network Development .................... 320
Figure 10.2: Density of Animal Based Agriculture Compared to Transport Network Development ................. 325

9
Andrew Welfle - ID: 81163530
Abstract
The University of Manchester

Andrew James Welfle

Biomass Resource Analyses & Future Bioenergy Scenarios

March 2014
___________________________________________________________________________
The United Kingdom has committed itself to ambitious and legally-binding Greenhouse Gas
emission reduction, and renewable energy contribution targets. Energy production from
biomass is expected to play a significant role in achieving these targets. The PhD Research
Project as presented in this Thesis provides an analysis of the UK’s indigenous biomass
resources, and the potential they offer in servicing domestic bioenergy requirements.
The biomass resource supply chain dynamics within the UK, govern the availability of these
indigenous resources. By modelling these supply chain dynamics, an assessment has been
undertaken; the principle aim of which was to evaluate the potential contribution that
indigenous biomass resources can make towards the UK’s future energy mix.
This Research finds that the United Kingdom has considerable indigenous biomass resources
that could potentially be made available, if the UK were able to develop its supply chains to
appropriately mobilise these resources. However, the specific demands and the direction of
development of the UK’s future bioenergy sector, as driven by the UK Government’s current
strategies and policies; demonstrate degrees of incompatibility with the forecast potential of
biomass resource availability.
The consequence of this disparity is likely to result in rising biomass resource imports to
balance the UK’s future energy demands. Further analysis highlights the potential impacts,
inherent uncertainties, and risks to the United Kingdom’s bioenergy sector; associated with
trade within future global biomass resource markets.
The concluding themes are based on analyses and discussions that indicate that the UK
should implement strategies to develop its indigenous resources, and develop its supply
chains to optimise these resources; rather than become heavily reliant on imports from the
global markets.

10