Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards PDF
Preview Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards
Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards · · Katar´ına Strˇelcova´ Csaba Ma´tya´s Axel · · · Kleidon Milan Lapin Frantisˇek Matejka · ˇ · Miroslav Blazˇenec Jaroslav Skvarenina Ja´n Hole´cy (Eds.) Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards Editors Prof.Dr.CsabaMa´tya´s Ass.Prof.Dr.Katar´ınaStˇrelcova´ InstituteofEnvironmentalandEarthSciences FacultyofForestry FacultyofForestry TechnicalUniversityZvolen WestHungarianUniversity T.G.Masaryka24 AdyEndreStr.5 96053Zvolen Sopron9400 Slovakia Hungary [email protected] [email protected] Dr.AxelKleidon Prof.Dr.MilanLapin Max-Planck-InstituteforBiogeochemistry FacultyofMathematics,Physics&Informatics Hans-Knoell-Str.10 ComeniusUniversityinBratislava 07745Jena Mlynska´dolina-F1 Germany 84248Bratislava [email protected] Slovakia [email protected] Dr.FrantisˇekMatejka GeophysicalInstitute Dr.MiroslavBlazˇenec SlovakAcademyofSciences InstituteofForestEcology Du´bravska´cesta9 SlovakAcademyofSciences 84528Bratislava Sˇtu´rova2 Slovakia 96053Zvolen [email protected] Slovakia [email protected] Prof.Dr.JaroslavSˇkvarenina FacultyofForestry Prof.Dr.Ja´nHole´cy TechnicalUniversityZvolen FacultyofForestry T.G.Masaryka24 TechnicalUniversityZvolen 96053Zvolen T.G.Masaryka24 Slovakia 96053Zvolen [email protected] Slovakia [email protected] ISBN:978-1-4020-8875-9 e-ISBN:978-1-4020-8876-6 DOI10.1007/978-1-4020-8876-6 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2008936211 (cid:2)c SpringerScience+BusinessMediaB.V.2009 Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recording orotherwise,withoutwrittenpermissionfromthePublisher,withtheexception ofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeingentered andexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework. Coverimages(cid:2)c 2008JupiterImagesCorporation Printedonacid-freepaper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com Foreword Man-made changes in the climate system, consisting of atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere represent a most serious challenge not only totheplanet’secosystemsandtheirnaturalenvironmentbuttohumancivilizations. While the Earth system will undoubtedly adapt, human infrastructures and societal organization may be questioned if no action is taken in time to buffer unavoidable consequencesrelatedtoclimatechange.Asareaction,scientificdisciplinessuchas bioclimatology,genetics,hydrology,bio-hydrologyandeco-physiologyarenowcon- sideredanimportantpartofforestry,agriculture,watermanagement,environmental protection, and natural hazards control (e.g., droughts, floods, windstorms, weather extremes, and wild fires). Bioclimatology provides an integrated, interdisciplinary framework for dealing with contemporary challenges of natural hazards. Bioclima- tology has also the potential to assess and predict extreme weather events in a very complexway. Bioclimatologywillhelpinbetterunderstandingthecausesandimpactsofnatural hazardsandwayshowtopreventthem.Improvedknowledgeofnaturalhazardsisa vitalprerequisitefortheimplementationofintegratedresourcemanagement.Itpro- videsausefulframeworkforcombatingcurrentclimatevariabilityandforadapting toongoingclimatechange. ClimatechangeexplainstheoccurrenceofextremeweatherinCentralandEastern Europe(CEE).Today,theincreasesinprecipitationandsoilmoisturevariabilityand increasedtemperaturearethemostimportantsingleissuethatneedstobeaddressed. Theassessmentofimpactscausedbyextremeweathersituationssuchasheatwaves, droughts, floods, windstorms, etc., is even more complicated. Atmospheric General CirculationModels(GCMs)arecurrentlyusedtopredictsuchsituations.Thesemod- els need to be adjusted to provide downscaled outputs using localized scenarios of selected extreme events. Some of the designed GCM scenarios of extreme weather situationsneedtobemodifiedaccordingtoanalogues. The shift of vegetation zones is the most investigated and obvious response of ecosystemstoclimatechange.Forecastingtheshiftsofvegetationzonesinresponse toweatherextremesandongoingclimatechangeisbasedonclimaticallydetermined actual distribution models, or so-called “bioclimatic envelopes”. Bioclimatic mod- ellingisbasedontheconceptthatdistributionalpatternsdependonthephysiological tolerance of populations to climatic effects besides ecological and life history fac- tors.Theselimitsaregeneticallydeterminedandthusmoreorlessfixed.Genetically regulatedplasticityenablestheadaptationofindividualsandpopulationstochanging environmentswithoutanychangeintheinheritedgeneticresources.Naturalselection v vi Foreword eliminates the genotypes of low fitness from a population, thus adjusting its gene pooltowardsbetteradaptation.Itisimportanttorealisethattheadaptiveresponseof ecosystems toenvironmental stressisultimately regulated bygenetics and thatbio- climaticmodellinghastoconsidergeneticallysetadaptationmechanismsinplantsas importantpartsofecosystems. This book presents a carefully edited and reviewed selection of papers from the International Scientific Conference on Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards held in Slovakia at the Polana Biosphere Reserve on September 17–20, 2007. There 250 participants from the 14 different countries of Europe discussed recent research on the interactions between meteorological, climatological, hydrological and biologi- calprocessesintheatmosphereandterrestrialenvironment.Allcontributingauthors come from renowned scientific research institutions and universities in Europe and specialiseinissuesofclimatechange,soil-plant-atmosphereinteractions,hydrologic cycle,ecosystems,biosphere,andnaturalhazards.Fromthetotalof215conference contributions,the25mostimportantissueshavebeenselectedforthisbooktohigh- lightaspectrumoftopicsassociatedwithclimatechangeandweatherextremesand theirimpactondifferentsectorsofthenationaleconomy. Mostofthepresentedpaperspointoutthatthedamagecausedbytheoccurrence ofextremeclimateeventsanditsimpactonecosystemsseemstohavesubstantially increased over the past decades. Some of these climate extremes can induce disas- trous effects. For instance, drought and windstorms can act as promoters of wind throwsandcanresultinincreasedpopulationsizesofdifferentkindsofinsects.This inturncanhaveeffectsonlandscapewildfireoccurrenceandenhancethevulnera- bilityofecosystemsandtheirresilience.Thevulnerabilityandtheimpactsofdisas- ter on ecosystems and society are influenced by many factors. The combination of methods and knowledge from various academic disciplines provide efficient set of toolsandprocedurestoreducethevulnerabilityofecosystemsbystrengtheningtheir resilience.Thecontributionsreflectthediversityandtheinterdisciplinarycharacterof theresearchconcerningtheoccurrenceofnaturalhazards.Somecontributionsreport resultsofresearchinthefieldsofseverestorms,heavyprecipitationandfloods,soil erosionanddegradationresultingfromthedestructionofforestbywildfireaswell asresultsofmodelingtheimpactsofnaturalhazardsontreegrowth. Theeditorsgratefullyacknowledgetheenthusiasticsupportandconstructivesug- gestionsmadebymanycolleaguesandfriends.Weexpressoursincerethankstoall reviewersofthemanuscript. Katar´ınaStˇrelcova´ CsabaMa´tya´s AxelKleidon MilanLapin FrantisˇekMatejka MiroslavBlazˇenec JaroslavSˇkvarenina Ja´nHole´cy Contents PartI EXTREMEEVENTS,RISKSANDCLIMATEVARIABILITY WhatClimateCanWeExpectinCentral/EasternEuropeby2071–2100?... 3 J.Bartholy,R.Pongra´cz,Gy.Gelybo´ andA.Kern Detected and Expected Trends of Extreme Climate Indices for the CarpathianBasin ............................................... 15 R.Pongra´cz,J.Bartholy,Gy.Gelybo´ andP.Szabo´ PrecipitationTrendAnalysisforCentralEasternGermany1851–2006 ..... 29 S.Ha¨nsel,S.PetzoldandJ.Matschullat SomeFactsonExtremeWeatherEventsAnalysisinSlovakia.............. 39 M.Lapin,I.Damborska´,P.Fasˇko,L.Gaa´landM.Melo WindRiskAssessmentinUrbanEnvironments:TheCaseofFallingTrees DuringWindstormEventsinLisbon .............................. 55 A.Lopes,S.Oliveira,M.Fragoso,J.A.AndradeandP.Pedro OzoneAirPollutioninExtremeWeatherSituation–EnvironmentalRisk inMountainEcosystems ......................................... 75 S.Bicˇa´rova´ andP.Fleischer PartII DROUGHT,FLOODSANDECOSYSTEMRESPONSES PhysiologicalDrought–HowtoQuantifyit? ............................ 89 V.Nova´k OccurrenceofDryandWetPeriodsinAltitudinalVegetationStagesof WestCarpathiansinSlovakia:Time-SeriesAnalysis1951–2005 ...... 97 J.Sˇkvarenina,J.Tomlain,J.Hrvol(cid:3)andJ.Sˇkvareninova´ Thermodynamics,Irreversibility,andOptimalityinLandSurface Hydrology...................................................... 107 A.Kleidon,S.SchymanskiandM.Stieglitz vii viii Contents WinterSnowSupplyinSmallMountainWatershedasaPotentialHazard ofSpringFloodFormation ....................................... 119 M.Hr´ıbik,A.Majlingova´,J.SˇkvareninaandD.Kyselova´ Mapping of Gumbel Extreme Value Distribution Parameters for EstimationofDesignPrecipitationTotalsatUngaugedSites.......... 129 S.Kohnova´,J.Parajka,J.SzolgayandK.Hlavcˇova´ FloodPreventionandNatureConservation–InterdisciplinaryEvaluation ofLandUseScenariosforanAgriculturalLandscape ............... 137 E.Richert,S.Bianchin,H.Heilmeier,M.MertaandCh.Seidler Part III FOREST BIOCLIMATOLOGY, NATURAL HAZARDS AND MODELLING RiskAssessmentoftheTatraMountainsForest.......................... 145 P.Fleischer,M.Korenˇ,J.SˇkvareninaandV.Kunca ModelingNaturalDisturbancesinTreeGrowthModelSIBYLA........... 155 M.FabrikaandT.Vaculcˇiak InsectPestsasClimateChangeDrivenDisturbancesinForestEcosystems .. 165 T.Hla´snyandM.Turcˇa´ni GeneticBackgroundofResponseofTreestoAridificationattheXeric ForestLimitandConsequencesforBioclimaticModelling ........... 179 Cs.Ma´tya´s,L.NagyandE´.Ujva´riJa´rmay SeasonalChangesinTranspirationandSoilWaterContentinaSpruce PrimevalForestDuringaDryPeriod.............................. 197 (cid:3) F.Matejka,K.Stˇrelcova´,T.Hurtalova´,E.Go¨mo¨ryova´ andL.Ditmarova´ AssessmentofWaterDeficiencyinForestEcosystems:CanaSimpleModel ofForestWaterBalanceProduceReliableResults? ................. 207 P.Bala´zˇ,K.Stˇrelcova´,M.Blazˇenec,R.Pokorny´ andZ.Klima´nkova´ ForestFireVulnerabilityAnalysis ...................................... 219 J.TucˇekandA.Majlingova´ The Paradigm of Risk and Measuring the Vulnerability of Forest byNaturalHazards ............................................. 231 J.Hole´cy Part IV SOIL AND AGRICULTURE BIOCLIMATOLOGY, NATURAL HAZARDSANDRESPONSES Responses of Soil Microbial Activity and Functional Diversity toDisturbanceEventsintheTatraNationalPark(Slovakia) ......... 251 E.Go¨mo¨ryova´,K.Stˇrelcova´,J.Sˇkvarenina,J.BebejandD.Go¨mo¨ry Contents ix CapacitiesofModellingtoAssessBufferStripEfficiencytoReduceSoil LossDuringHeavyRainfallEvents................................ 261 M.Ka¨ndler,I.Ba¨rlund,M.PuustinenandC.Seidler TheInfluenceofClimateChangeonWaterDemandsforIrrigationof SpecialPlantsandVegetablesinSlovakia .......................... 271 V.Ba´rek,P.HalajandD.Igaz ClimateChangeImpactonSpringBarleyandWinterWheatYieldson DanubianLowland.............................................. 283 J.Taka´cˇ andB.Sˇisˇka Emissions from Agricultural Soils as Influenced by Change ofEnvironmentalFactors ........................................ 289 J.Hora´kandB.Sˇisˇka Index ............................................................... 297 Contributors Jose´ Alexandre Andrade Geosciences Department, University of E´vora, Portugal, [email protected] Peter Bala´zˇ Forest Research Institute, National Forest Centre, T.G. Masaryka 22, 96092Zvolen,Slovakia,[email protected] Vilam Ba´rek Department of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture, Hospoda´rska 7, 949 76 Nitra,Slovakia,[email protected] IlonaBa¨rlundUniversityofKassel,Kassel,Germany,[email protected] Judith Bartholy Department of Meteorology, Eo¨tvo¨s Lora´nd University, Pazmany st.1/a,H-1117Budapest,Hungary,[email protected] Juraj Bebej Technical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, Zvolen, Slovakia, [email protected] Sylvi Bianchin Technische Universita¨t Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre, Freiberg, Germany, [email protected] freiberg.de SvetlanaBicˇa´rova´ GeophysicalInstitute,SlovakAcademyofSciences,Meteorolog- icalObservatoryStara´ Lesna´,05960Tatranska´ Lomnica,Slovakia,[email protected] Miroslav Blazˇenec Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen,Slovakia,[email protected] Ingrid Damborska´ Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius University,Bratislava,Slovakia,[email protected] (cid:3) Lubica Ditmarova´ Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen,Slovakia,[email protected] MarekFabrikaTechnicalUniversityinZvolen,FacultyofForestry,T.G.Masaryka 24,96053Zvolen,Slovakia,[email protected] Pavol Fasˇko Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, Slovakia, [email protected] PeterFleischerResearchStationoftheTatraNationalPark,StateForestofTANAP, 05960Tatranska´ Lomnica,Slovakia,fl[email protected] Marcelo Fragoso Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Lisbon, mfragoso@fl.ul.pt xi xii Contributors Ladislav Gaa´l Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology, Bratislava,Slovakia Gyo¨rgyi Gelybo´ Department of Meteorology, Eo¨tvo¨s Lora´nd University,Budapest, Hungary,[email protected] Dusˇan Go¨mo¨ry Technical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, Zvolen, Slovakia,[email protected] Erika Go¨mo¨ryova´ Technical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, T.G. Masaryka24,96053Zvolen,Slovakia,[email protected] Peter Halaj Department of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture, Nitra, Slovakia, [email protected] Stephanie Ha¨nsel Technical University, Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre, Brennhausgasse, 14, D-09599 Freiberg, Germany, [email protected] Hermann Heilmeier Technische Universita¨t Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre, Freiberg, Germany, [email protected] Toma´sˇHla´snyForestResearchInstitute,NationalForestCentre,T.G.Masaryka22, 96092Zvolen,Slovakia;CzechUniversityofLifeSciences,FacultyofForestryand WoodSciences,DepartmentofForestProtectionandGameManagement,Kamy´cka´ 1176,Prague6 –Suchdol16521,CzechRepublic Kamila Hlavcˇova´ Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia,[email protected] Ja´nHole´cyTechnicalUniversityinZvolen,FacultyofForestry,T.G. Masaryka24, 96053Zvolen,Slovakia,[email protected] Ja´n Hora´k Department of Biometeorology and Hydrology, Slovak Agricultural University,Hospoda´rska7,94901Nitra,Slovakia,[email protected] Matu´sˇHr´ıbikTechnicalUniversityinZvolen,FacultyofEcologyandEnvironmen- talSciences,T.G. Masaryka24,96053Zvolen,Slovakia,[email protected] (cid:3) Ja´nHrvol FacultyofMathematics,PhysicsandInformatics,ComeniusUniversity, Bratislava,Slovakia,[email protected] (cid:3) TatjanaHurtalova´ GeophysicalInstitute,SlovakAcademyofSciences,Bratislava, Slovakia,[email protected] DusˇanIgazDepartmentofBiometeorologyandHydrology,FacultyofHorticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture, Nitra, Slovakia, [email protected] MatthiasKa¨ndlerInternationalGraduateSchoolZittau,Markt23,D-02763 Zittau, Germany,[email protected] Aniko´ Kern Department of Meteorology, Eo¨tvo¨s Lora´nd University, Budapest, Hungary, [email protected]
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