Beyond Turnout: How Compulsory Voting Shapes Citizens and Political Parties PDF
Preview Beyond Turnout: How Compulsory Voting Shapes Citizens and Political Parties
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi Beyond Turnout OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi COMPARATIVE POLITICS ComparativePoliticsisaseriesforresearchers,teachers,andstudentsofpolitical sciencethatdealswithcontemporarygovernmentandpolitics.Globalinscope, booksintheseriesarecharacterizedbyastressoncomparativeanalysisandstrong methodologicalrigour.TheseriesispublishedinassociationwiththeEuropean ConsortiumforPoliticalResearch.Formoreinformationvisit www.ecprnet.eu TheseriesiseditedbySusanScarrow,JohnandRebeccaMooresProfessorofPolitical Science,UniversityofHouston,andJonathanSlapin,ProfessorofPolitical InstitutionsandEuropeanPolitics,UniversityofZurich. other titles in this series PartySystemClosure PartyAlliances,GovernmentAlternatives,andDemocracyinEurope FernandoCasalBértoaandZsoltEnyedi TheNewPartyChallenge ChangingCyclesofPartyBirthandDeathinCentralEuropeandBeyond TimHaughtonandKevinDeegan-Krause Multi-LevelDemocracy IntegrationandIndependenceAmongPartySystems,Parties, andVotersinSevenFederalSystems LoriThorlakson CitizenSupportforDemocraticandAutocraticRegimes MarleneMauk DemocraticStabilityinanAgeofCrisis AgnesCornell,JørgenMøller,andSvend-ErikSkaaning CoalitionGovernanceinCentralEasternEurope EditedbyTorbjörnBergman,GabriellaIlonszki,andWolfgangC.Müller TheReshapingofWestEuropeanPartyPolitics Agenda-SettingandPartyCompetitioninComparativePerspective ChristofferGreen-Pedersen ParliamentsinTime TheEvolutionofLegislativeDemocracyinWesternEurope,1866–2015 MichaelKoß InequalityAftertheTransition PoliticalParties,PartySystems,andSocialPolicyinSouthern andPostcommunistEurope EkremKarakoç DemocracyandtheCartelizationofPoliticalParties RichardS.KatzandPeterMair OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi Beyond Turnout How Compulsory Voting Shapes Citizens and Political Parties SHANE P. SINGH 1 OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries ©ShaneP.Singh2021 Themoralrightsoftheauthorhavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin2021 Impression:1 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2021939090 ISBN 978–0–19–883292–8 DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198832928.001.0001 Printedandboundby CPIGroup(UK)Ltd,Croydon,CR04YY LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi Preface Myinterestincompulsoryvotingbeganduringanundergraduatesemesterabroad inAustraliainthefirstpartof2003.(AnearlierstudyabroadtriptoBrazilfailedto piquethisinterest,notleastbecauseIwasatthetimefullyunawareofthecountry’s legalrequirementtovote.)ThisinterestremaineddormantuntilIenteredgraduate school in political science at Michigan State University. Toward the end of my doctoralprogram,mygraduateschoolcolleagueandroommate,JuddThornton, broughttomyattentionanarticleinPolitical Behavior byCostasPanagopoulos (2008). The article shows that turnout is higher where voting is compulsory, especiallywhereabstentionpenaltiesarestrongandenforced. Panagopoulos’ article had three immediate effects on my thinking. First, it showedmethatgoodjournalswerepublishingempiricalresearchoncompulsory voting.Second,asPanagopoulosusedaggregate-levelmeasurestotesthypotheses thatoperatedattheindividuallevel,itmademerealizethattherewasroomfor furthercontributioninthisdomain.Third,itconjuredupanearlierconversation IhadwithJuddandanothergradschoolcolleague,BenjaminLundgren,during theMidwestPoliticalScienceAssociationAnnualConference.Inthatlate-night discussion,setinacheapChicagohotelroom,asimpleideapoppedup:people who abstain in countries with compulsory voting probably have systematically differentreasonsfordoingsothanpeoplelivingundervoluntaryvoting. Shortlythereafter,Icraftedanextensiveresearchagendaoncompulsoryvoting, which is focused on the effects of the requirement to vote on political behavior beyond turnout. This book represents the culmination of more than a decade of my learning, thinking, and writing about compulsory voting. While I have previouslypublishedarticlesandchaptersonthetopicinacademicjournalsand editedvolumes,bothaloneandwithcoauthors,thisbookrepresentsabroaderand deeperinvestigationthananyofthiswork.Mostofthetheorizinghereinisnew, andalloftheargumentsaremorefleshedoutthanwhatappearsinmyarticlesand chapters,giventheluxuryofspacethatabookprovides.Theempiricaltests,some ofwhichrelyondatacollectedforthepurposesofthisbook,arealsonew. This book was written over a six-year period. Keeping with the comparative focus,itscompositionandtheassociateddatacollectionandanalysestookplacein citiesthroughouttheUnitedStatesandtheworld(andonseveralformsofpublic transit). In order of time devoted, from most to least, this book was researched andcomposedinthefollowingcities:Athens,GA;Cambridge,MA;Verona,Italy; Oxford,U.K.;AnnArbor,MI;Somerville,MA;Chicago,IL; OrangeBeach,AL; andRochester,MI. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi Acknowledgments Iamfortunatetohavebenefitedfromthefeedback,advice,guidance,assistance, andsupportofseveralpeopleduringthemultiyearperiodoverwhichIwrotethis book.Thiscameinvariousforms,whetherininformalconversations,emailand textmessages,oracademicpresentations. This project improved due to feedback from: Kris Dunn, who gave me tips onthepsychologicalportionsofthetheory; ScottMainwaring,whospokewith me about the relevance of my theory to Latin American party systems; Quin- ton Mayne, with whom I had stimulating discussions about many portions of the theory; Jonathan Polk, who provided expert feedback about the theoretical expectations regarding party behavior; and Matthew Singer, who provided me with helpful feedback on various portions of this book on multiple occasions. I amparticularlygratefultoRobertLupton,whowasagreatsourceforinsightson manytopics,especiallythoserelatingtopoliticalparties. Ipresentedthisprojectinvariousstagesofcompletionat:theDepartmentof Political Science at the University of Connecticut in an event sponsored by the Political Economy Workshop and the Department Colloquium Committee; the School of Politics and International Studies Seminar Series at the University of LeedsinaneventsponsoredbytheCentreforDemocraticEngagement;andthe DepartmentofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofCopenhagen.Iamgratefulto audiencemembersateachpresentationforhelpfulcomments.IalsothankRobert LuptonandMatthewSinger,KrisDunn,andPeterThistedDinesenfororganizing theseevents,respectively. Manyindividualsprovidedmewithhelpfulinformationpertainingtocompul- soryvoting.IthankReinholdGärtnerformeetingwithmetodiscusstheuseof compulsoryvotinginAustria,NarayanappaSivannaforinformationontheuseof compulsoryvotinginKarnataka,andDanielHidalgoforhelpfulinformationon thehistoryofcompulsoryvotinginBrazil. Thisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthedatamadeavailablefroma numberoforganizations.Itreliesheavilyondatafrom:theComparativeStudyof ElectoralSystemsattheCenterforPoliticalStudiesattheUniversityofMichigan andtheGESIS-LeibnizInstitutefortheSocialSciences;theSwissElectionStudyat theSwissCentreofExpertiseintheSocialSciencesattheUniversityofLausanne; the Latin American Public Opinion Project at Vanderbilt University; and the ComparativeManifestosProjecthousedattheWZBBerlinSocialScienceCenter. I also benefited from the data made available by the Varieties of Democracy OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi acknowledgments vii project, which is headquartered in the Department of Political Science at the UniversityofGothenburg,andthePolityIVProject,whichishousedattheCenter forSystemicPeace.IamalsogratefultoJillSheppardforsharingwithmedatafrom the2013ANUpollandtoNetquestforpartneringwithmetoconductthesurvey ofArgentiniansthatfeaturesmultipletimesinthisbook. Ialsothankthosewhoprovidedresearchassistance.LinanJiadidanexcellent job helping to identify and catalog public opinion surveys that include ques- tionsaboutattitudestowardcompulsoryvoting.NeilWilliamsprovidedvaluable assistancegatheringandsummarizingtheliteratureregardingargumentsforand againstcompulsoryvoting.Inthelaterstages,JacksonTilleydiligentlyproofread themanuscript. Duringthewritingprocess,Ibenefitedfromaccommodationprovidedbythe AshCenterforDemocraticGovernanceandInnovationattheHarvardKennedy School.IthankMilesRapoportandE.J.DionneforwelcomingmeintotheirUni- versalVotingWorkingGroup,acollaborativeefforthostedattheKennedySchool andtheBrookingsInstitution.Myparticipationinthegrouphelpedtosharpenmy thinkingontheargumentssurroundingtheuseofcompulsoryvoting,anditgave metheopportunitytodiscussthescientificresearchonmandatoryvotingwitha diversegroupofscholars,activists,attorneys,politicians,andpractitioners. Primaryaccommodationandfinancialbackingforthisprojectwasprovidedby theSchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairs(SPIA)attheUniversityofGeorgia. SPIAhasbeenmyacademichomebaseforthedurationoftheproject,andIam fortunatetoworkinthesupportiveenvironmentthatitprovides.Iamespecially grateful to Markus Crepaz, who served as my department head as I started my careerandprovidedmewiththesupportandfreedomnecessarytocraftaviable researchagenda. As I embarked on this project, the academic book publishing process was entirely new to me. I am indebted to Paul Kellstedt for his generous help with the publication process and for detailed feedback on my book proposal. I also benefitedfromdiscussionsaboutthepublicationprocesshadwithJamieCarson, RongbinHan,AmandaMurdie,andJae-JaeSpoon. Ialsothankthosewhoprovidedmewithassistancethroughoutthepublication processatOxfordUniversityPress(OUP).Intheproposalstage,Ibenefitedfrom the responses of three anonymous reviewers recruited by OUP. In particular, I thank Dominic Byatt, who was kind, supportive, and accessible during the proposal,review,andacquisitionsprocess. I owe a great debt to those who have helped nurture my career to this point. Inparticular,WilliamJacoby,mydoctoraladvisor,taughtmethetoolsnecessary to be a successful, empirically oriented social scientist early in my career, and heprovidedunfailingsupportasIadvancedfromagraduatestudentthroughto OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi viii acknowledgments tenured professor. André Blais has also provided generous mentorship, and his kindness,humility,andrelentlesshardworkhaveservedasaguidepost. I am also grateful to my parents, who greatly influenced my career path and anyprofessionalsuccessesIhavehadtothispoint.Mymotherdemonstratedthe immensebenefitsofself-disciplineandhardwork,andmyfatherinstilledinmea fascinationwithpoliticsinothercountriesandanappreciationformathematics. Finally, I thank my wife, Leyna. During my work on this project, our family doubledinsizeaswewelcomedthearrivalofourchildren,IslaandOrion.When Ithinkbackontheyearsoverwhichthisbookwascomposed,Iwillremember most fondly our adventures in raising two very young kids while also moving abouttheUnitedStatesandtheworld.WithoutLeynaandallherlove,intelligence, determination,passion,support,laughter,andcompanionship,mylifeoutsideof work would be a lot less bright. And that is more important than any data set, identification strategy, statistical model, peer-reviewed journal article, or book withatopuniversitypress. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF – FINAL,2/6/2021,SPi Contents ListofFiguresandTables xi 1. Introduction 1 1.1 TheSemanticsof“CompulsoryVoting” 3 1.2 ArgumentsForandAgainstCompulsoryVoting 5 1.2.1 CompulsoryVotingandtheQuestionofaDutytoVote 5 1.2.2 Compulsory Voting and the Democratic Collective Action Problem 8 1.2.3 CompulsoryVotingandDemocraticLegitimacy 9 1.2.4 CompulsoryVotingandDemocraticRepresentation 10 1.2.5 RippleEffectsofCompulsoryVoting 11 1.3 CompulsoryVoting:WhenandWhy? 16 1.4 CompulsoryVotingToday 18 1.5 RecentEventsSurroundingCompulsoryVoting 22 1.6 WaystoStudytheImpactofCompulsoryVoting 31 1.7 ASummaryofthisBook 34 2. TheConsequencesofCompulsoryVoting 38 2.1 Compulsory Voting, Turnout, and the Composition of Voting Populations 38 2.2 CompulsoryVotingandInvalidBalloting 43 2.3 CompulsoryVotingandPoliticalEngagementandKnowledge 46 2.4 CompulsoryVotingandPoliticalAttitudes 49 2.5 CompulsoryVotingandthe“Quality”ofVotes 50 2.6 CompulsoryVotingandtheSuccessoftheLeftandRight 52 2.7 CompulsoryVotingandPartyBehavior 54 2.8 CompulsoryVotingandtheEconomy 55 2.9 Conclusion 56 3. HowCompulsoryVotingAffectsIndividuals 57 3.1 TheEffectsofCoercion 58 3.2 Theory:CompulsoryVoting’sDivergentEffectsonCitizens 60 3.3 ObservableImplicationsandHypotheses 63 3.4 Conclusion 66 4. TheCorrelatesofSupportforCompulsoryVoting 67 4.1 BackgroundInformation 67 4.2 ATestofHypothesis1 71 4.3 Conclusion 79
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