Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

1167 Pages·2019·64.27 MB·English

by  Vladik Kreinovich, Nguyen Ngoc Thach, Nguyen Duc Trung, Dang Van Thanh

Studies in Computational Intelligence 809
Vladik Kreinovich
Nguyen Ngoc Thach
Nguyen Duc Trung
Dang Van Thanh Editors
Beyond Traditional
Probabilistic
Methods in
Economics
Studies in Computational Intelligence
Volume 809
Series editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
The series “Studies in Computational Intelligence” (SCI) publishes new develop-
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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/7092
Vladik Kreinovich Nguyen Ngoc Thach
(cid:129)
Nguyen Duc Trung Dang Van Thanh
(cid:129)
Editors
Beyond Traditional
Probabilistic Methods
in Economics
123
Editors
VladikKreinovich Nguyen DucTrung
Department ofComputer Science BankingUniversity HCMC
University of Texas atElPaso HoChiMinh City,Vietnam
ElPaso, TX,USA
Dang VanThanh
Nguyen NgocThach TTCGroup
BankingUniversity HCMC HoChiMinh City,Vietnam
HoChiMinh City,Vietnam
ISSN 1860-949X ISSN 1860-9503 (electronic)
Studies in Computational Intelligence
ISBN978-3-030-04199-1 ISBN978-3-030-04200-4 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04200-4
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Preface
Economicsisaveryimportantand,atthesame,averydifficultdiscipline.Itisvery
difficult to predict how an economy will evolve, and it is very difficult to find out
which measures we should undertake to make economy prosper. One of the main
reasonsforthisdifficultyisthatineconomics,thereisalotofuncertainty:Different
difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make
good predictions, to make reasonable recommendations, we need to take this
uncertainty into account.
In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional tech-
niquesfromprobabilityandstatistics,suchasp-value-basedhypothesistestingand
the use of normal distributions. These techniques led to many successful applica-
tions, but in the last decades, many examples emerged showing the limitations
of these traditional techniques: Often, these techniques lead to non-reproducible
resultsandtounreliableandinaccuratepredictions.Itisthereforenecessarytocome
up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty, techniques
that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques.
Suchtechniquesandtheireconomicapplicationsarethemainfocusofthisbook.
Thisbookcontainsbothrelatedtheoreticaldevelopmentsandpracticalapplications
to various economic problems. The corresponding techniques range from more
traditionalmethods—suchasmethodsbasedonBayesianapproach—toinnovative
methods utilizing ideas and techniques from quantum physics. Aspecial section is
devoted to fixed point techniques—mathematical techniques corresponding to the
important economic notions of stability and equilibrium. And, of course, there are
still many remaining challenges and many open problems.
We hope that this volume will help practitioners to learn how to apply various
uncertainty techniques to economic problems, and help researchers to further
improve the existing techniques and to come up with new techniques for dealing
with uncertainty in economics.
We want to thank all the authors for their contributions and all anonymous
referees for their thorough analysis and helpful comments.
v
vi Preface
The publication of this volume is partly supported by the Banking University
of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our thanks to the leadership and staff of
the Banking University, for providing crucial support. Our special thanks to
Prof. Hung T. Nguyen for his valuable advice and constant support.
We would also like to thank Prof. Janusz Kacprzyk (Series Editor)
and Dr. Thomas Ditzinger (Senior Editor, Engineering/Applied Sciences) for their
support and cooperation in this publication.
January 2019 Vladik Kreinovich
Nguyen Duc Trung
Nguyen Ngoc Thach
Dang Van Thanh
Contents
General Theory
Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Econometrics. . . . . . . . . . 3
Hung T. Nguyen, Nguyen Duc Trung, and Nguyen Ngoc Thach
Everything Wrong with P-Values Under One Roof . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
William M. Briggs
Mean-Field-Type Games for Blockchain-Based Distributed
Power Networks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Boualem Djehiche, Julian Barreiro-Gomez, and Hamidou Tembine
Finance and the Quantum Mechanical Formalism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Emmanuel Haven
Quantum-Like Model of Subjective Expected Utility:
A Survey of Applications to Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Polina Khrennikova
Agent-Based Artificial Financial Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Akira Namatame
A Closer Look at the Modeling of Economics Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
Hung T. Nguyen and Nguyen Ngoc Thach
What to Do Instead of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing
or Confidence Intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
David Trafimow
Why Hammerstein-Type Block Models Are so Efficient:
Case Study of Financial Econometrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan, Afshin Gholamy, Vladik Kreinovich,
and Hoang Phuong Nguyen
vii
viii Contents
Why Threshold Models: A Theoretical Explanation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan, Vladik Kreinovich,
and Songsak Sriboonchitta
The Inference on the Location Parameters Under Multivariate
Skew Normal Settings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Ziwei Ma, Ying-Ju Chen, Tonghui Wang, and Wuzhen Peng
Blockchains Beyond Bitcoin: Towards Optimal Level
of Decentralization in Storing Financial Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Thach Ngoc Nguyen, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich,
and Hoang Phuong Nguyen
Why Quantum (Wave Probability) Models Are a Good Description
of Many Non-quantum Complex Systems,
and How to Go Beyond Quantum Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Miroslav Svítek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich,
and Thach Ngoc Nguyen
Decision Making Under Interval Uncertainty:
Beyond Hurwicz Pessimism-Optimism Criterion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
Tran Anh Tuan, Vladik Kreinovich, and Thach Ngoc Nguyen
Comparisons on Measures of Asymmetric Associations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Xiaonan Zhu, Tonghui Wang, Xiaoting Zhang, and Liang Wang
Fixed-Point Theory
Proximal Point Method Involving Hybrid Iteration for Solving
Convex Minimization Problem and Common Fixed Point Problem
in Non-positive Curvature Metric Spaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Plern Saipara, Kamonrat Sombut, and Nuttapol Pakkaranang
New Ciric Type Rational Fuzzy F-Contraction
for Common Fixed Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Aqeel Shahzad, Abdullah Shoaib, Konrawut Khammahawong,
and Poom Kumam
CommonFixedPointTheoremsforWeaklyGeneralizedContractions
and Applications on G-metric Spaces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
Pasakorn Yordsorn, Phumin Sumalai, Piyachat Borisut, Poom Kumam,
and Yeol Je Cho
A Note on Some Recent Strong Convergence Theorems of Iterative
Schemes for Semigroups with Certain Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Phumin Sumalai, Ehsan Pourhadi, Khanitin Muangchoo-in,
and Poom Kumam
Contents ix
Fixed Point Theorems of Contractive Mappings in A-cone Metric
Spaces over Banach Algebras. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
Isa Yildirim, Wudthichai Onsod, and Poom Kumam
Applications
The Relationship Among Education Service Quality,
University Reputation and Behavioral Intention in Vietnam . . . . . . . . . 273
Bui Huy Khoi, Dang Ngoc Dai, Nguyen Huu Lam,
and Nguyen Van Chuong
Impact of Leverage on Firm Investment:
Evidence from GMM Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
Duong Quynh Nga, Pham Minh Dien, Nguyen Tran Cam Linh,
and Nguyen Thi Hong Tuoi
Oligopoly Model and Its Applications in International Trade . . . . . . . . 296
Luu Xuan Khoi, Nguyen Duc Trung, and Luu Xuan Van
Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Vietnam:
An ARDL Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Bui Hoang Ngoc
The Impact of Anchor Exchange Rate Mechanism in USD
for Vietnam Macroeconomic Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao, Le Thi Thuy Hang, and Nguyen Xuan Dung
The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Structural
Economic in Vietnam. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352
Bui Hoang Ngoc and Dang Bac Hai
A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis
on the Determinants of Vietnam’s Stock Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Le Hoang Phong, Dang Thi Bach Van, and Ho Hoang Gia Bao
Explaining and Anticipating Customer Attitude Towards Brand
Communication and Customer Loyalty: An Empirical Study
in Vietnam’s ATM Banking Service Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
Dung Phuong Hoang
Measuring Misalignment Between East Asian and the United States
Through Purchasing Power Parity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
Cuong K. Q. Tran, An H. Pham, and Loan K. T. Vo
Determinants of Net Interest Margins in Vietnam Banking Industry. . . 417
An H. Pham, Cuong K. Q. Tran, and Loan K. T. Vo
Economic Integration and Environmental Pollution Nexus in Asean:
A PMG Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
Pham Ngoc Thanh, Nguyen Duy Phuong, and Bui Hoang Ngoc