Beyond smoke and mirrors : climate change and energy in the 21st century PDF
Preview Beyond smoke and mirrors : climate change and energy in the 21st century
BEYOND SMOKE AND MIRRORS SECOND EDITION Whatarethepracticaloptionsforaddressingglobalclimatechange? Howdoweprovidesustainableenergyandelectricityforarapidlygrowing worldpopulation? Whichenergyprovisionoptionsaregood,bad,orindifferent? Oneofthemostimportantissuesfacinghumanitytodayistheprospectof globalclimatechange,broughtaboutprimarilybyourprolificenergyuseand heavy dependence on fossil fuels. Continuing on our present course as the world economy and population grow will lead to very serious consequences. There are many claims and counterclaims about what to do to avert dire consequences.Thishasgeneratedafogoftruths,half-truths,andexaggerations, andmanypeopleareunderstandablyconfusedabouttheseissues.Theaimof this book is to help dispel the fog, and allow citizens to come to their own conclusionsconcerningthebestoptionstoavertdangerousclimatechangeby switchingtomoresustainableandaffordableenergyoptions. Thebookbeginswithacomposedandbalanceddiscussionofthebasicsof climatechange:whatweknow,howweknowit,whattheuncertaintiesare,and whatcausesit.Thereisnodoubtthatglobalwarmingisreal;thequestionis howbadwewillallowthingstoget.Themainpartofthebookdiscusseshowto reducegreenhousegasemissionsandlimittheglobaltemperaturerise,includ- ingwhattheupperlimitongreenhousegasesshouldbe,howfastweshouldgo tocutemissions,andalloftheenergyoptionsbeingadvocatedtoreducethose emissions.Themanysensible,senseless,andself-servingproposalsareassessed. Beyond Smoke and Mirrors provides an accessible and concise overview of climate change science and current energy demand and supply patterns. It presents a balanced view of how our heavy reliance on fossil fuels can be changed over time so that we have a much more sustainable energy system goingforwardintothetwenty-firstcenturyandbeyond.Thebookiswrittenin anon-technicalstylesothatitisaccessibletoawiderangeofreaderswithout scientificbackgrounds:students,policymakers,andconcernedcitizens. burton richter isPaulPigottProfessorinthePhysicalSciencesEmeritus, and Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center at Stanford University.HeisaNobelPrize-winningphysicistforhispioneeringworkin thediscoveryofanunexpected,heavyelementaryparticlethatwasoneofthe foundationsofwhatisnowcalledthestandardmodelofparticlephysics.He receivedtheLawrenceMedalfromtheUSDepartmentofEnergy,theAbelson PrizefromtheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScience,andthe FermiAwardforlifetimeachievement.Overthepastdecade,hehasturnedhis attentionfromhigh-energyphysicstoclimatechangeandenergyissues,andhas earnedastrongreputationinthisfieldaswell.Hehasservedonmanynational andinternational reviewcommittees,buthismostdirectinvolvementiswith nuclearenergywherehechairedanadvisorycommitteetotheUSDepartment ofEnergy.HewasalsochairmanofarecentAmericanPhysicalSocietystudyon energyefficiency,andamemberofthe“BlueRibbonPanel”thatoversawthe finaleditoftheUSclimateimpactassessmentthatwasreleasedin.Hehas writtenoverpapersinscientificjournalsandop-edarticlesfortheNewYork Times,WashingtonPost,andLATimes. BEYOND SMOKE A N D MI R R O R S CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY IN THE 21ST CENTURY SECOND EDITION BURTON RICHTER Stanford University UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCBBS,UnitedKingdom CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthe pursuitofeducation,learningandresearchatthehighestinternational levelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/ ©BurtonRichter, Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished rdprinting SecondeditionpublishedinCantoClassics PrintedintheUnitedKingdombyCPIGroupLtd,CroydonCRYY AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN----Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceor accuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtoin thispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis, orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. CONTENTS Preface to the Second Edition page ix List of Units xii List of Conversion Factors xiv List of Abbreviations xvi Introduction . The First Edition . The Second Edition Part I Climate Greenhouse Earth Technical Note . : The Science of the Greenhouse Effect Climate Modeling . Introduction . The First Climate Models . Climate Change Goes Big Time . The Big Problem: Lifecycle of Greenhouse Gases . The Global Carbon Cycle Technical Note . : Other Greenhouse Gases Technical Note . : Geoengineering The Past as Proxy for the Future . A Short Tour Through . Billion Years . The Past Years . The Recent Past v Contents Predicting the Future . Who Does It? . How Is It Done? . Results . Where Are We? Part II Energy Taking up Arms Against this Sea of Troubles . Introduction . Energy Now and in the Future Market Exchange and PPP . Emission Targets Technical Note . : Carbon Dioxide Equivalents How Fast to Move: A Physicist’s Look at the Economists Energy, Emissions, and Action . Setting the Stage . Sources of Emissions EnergyandGreenhouseEmissionfrom FossilFuels . Reducing Emissions . No Silver Bullets . Winners and Losers Fossil Fuels – How Much Is There? . World Oil Reserves . World Gas Reserves . World Coal . Conclusion Electricity, Emissions, and Pricing Carbon . The Electricity Sector vi Contents . Pricing Carbon Emissions: Carbon Capture and Storage . Does What Goes into Storage Stay There? . Summary and Conclusion Efficiency: the First Priority . Introduction fi Primary and End-Use Energy Ef ciency . Transportation . Buildings . Conclusion Technical Note . : CAFE Standards Nuclear Energy . Introduction . Radiation . Safety . Spent Fuel: Love It or Hate It, We Have It . Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons . Fusion . Nuclear Power as Part of the Solution Technical Note . : Nuclear Power Primer ’ Technical Note . : Frances Long-Range Nuclear Development Plan Technical Note . : Producing Material for Weapons Technical Note . : Extract from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Technical Note . : Issues in Internationalizing the Fuel Cycle Renewables . Introduction . Wind vii Contents . Solar Energy . Geothermal . Hydropower . Ocean Energy . The Electric Power Distribution Grid Technical Note . : Photovoltaic cells Biofuels: Is There Anything There? . Introduction . Phase-: Ethanol from Starch and Sugar . Phase-: Cellulosic Ethanol . Phase-: Other Processes . Summary An Energy Summary . The Size of the Problem . Ranking the Solutions . Cost Part III Policy US Policy – New Things, Bad Things, Good Things . Introduction . Reducing Emissions on a National Scale . Bad Things . Good Things World Policy Actions . Introduction . Kyoto-: The Protocol of . Kyoto- Coda References Index viii
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