benefit cost analysis

1349 Pages·2015·23.36 MB·English

ATTACHMENT F
BENEFIT COST
ANALYSIS
PARTS 1.0 THROUGH 4.0
NYC Lower Manhattan Protect and Connect
National Disaster Resiliency Competition Phase 2 Application
September 1, 2015
Attachment F
Contents
To facilitate reader understanding, Attachment F is presented in five parts, plus appendices. Contents
for Parts 1.0 through 4.0 are provided herein. 5.0 Methodologies has its own table of contents and is
provided as a separate document:
 1.0 Overview provides an overview of the purpose of the BCA, the approach taken to conduct
the analysis, and presents analysis results.

 2.0 Project Description provides a detailed description of the Lower Manhattan Protect and
Connect Project.

 3.0 Existing Conditions describes specific existing conditions of risks and vulnerabilities that
will be reduced by the project. This includes vulnerable populations, environmental conditions,
economic growth trends, and Sandy impacts.

 4.0 Benefits Not Included in the Benefit Cost Ratio describes benefits not included in the
benefit cost ratio (BCR), which are limited to the twelve pages required by HUD.

 5.0 BCA Methodologies provides detailed methodologies for each benefit quantified in this
analysis. 5.0 Methodologies has its own table of contents and is provided as a separate
document.

 Appendices
o Appendix F-1. Appendix H Custom Crosswalk
o Appendix F-2. Resiliency Actions Post-Sandy
o Appendix F-3. Training and Education Actions
o Appendix F-4. Project Budget
o Appendix F-5. Economic Impact Analysis Assumptions
o Appendix F-6. Economic Impact Analysis Results
o Appendix F-7. Final BCA Results
o Appendix F-8. Sea Level Rise Memorandums
o Appendix F-9. Damage Functions
o Appendix F-10. Economic Loss Data
o Appendix F-11. Code Mapping
o Appendix F-12. IMPLAN Base Model
o Appendix F-13. Hazus Technical Manual Excerpts
o Appendix F-14. Case Studies for Recreation and Aesthetic Value of Project Program
Elements
o Appendix F-15. LMI Results: Population in the Study Area

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Table of Contents
1.0 OVERVIEW 
QUANTIFIED RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 4 
2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Proposal Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 25
Design Philosophy ........................................................................................................................... 27
Project Description ........................................................................................................................... 33
Alternatives Evaluation .................................................................................................................... 41
Project Feasibility ............................................................................................................................. 45
Project Scalability & Replicability ................................................................................................... 46
Project Schedule .............................................................................................................................. 49
Project Budget .................................................................................................................................. 52
Estimated Costs .............................................................................................................................. 54
Cost Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 54
Operations and Maintenance Costs ................................................................................................ 54
Existing Resiliency Actions .............................................................................................................. 57
Funding ............................................................................................................................................. 57
Useful Life ........................................................................................... ..............................................57
Project Breakdown ........................................................................................................................... 58
Project Risks ..................................................................................................................................... 60
3.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS
Vulnerable Populations .................................................................................................................... 65
Environmental Conditions ............................................................................................................... 70
Cultural and Community Assets ..................................................................................................... 75
Growth Trends .................................................................................................................................. 82
Current Risk Context ........................................................................................................................ 88
Coastal Storms and Flooding .......................................................................................................... 90
Sandy Impacts ............................................................................................................................. 91
Loss of Affordable Housing ............................................................................................................. 96
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Infrastructure Failures ...................................................................................................................... 98
Urban Heat Island Effect ............................................................................................................... 103
Stormwater Flooding and Combined Sewage Overflows .............................................................. 107

4.0 BENEFITS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BENEFIT COST RATIO (PAGES COUNTED
SEPARATELYY)
Potential Benefits from Added Vegetation ....................................................................................... 1
Urban Heat Island Risks Mitigated .................................................................................................... 2
Affordable Housing Benefits ............................................................................................................. 3
Reduced Federal Assistance ............................................................................................................. 4
Economic Benefits of Project Expenditure – New York County .................................................... 4
Benefits to Vulnerable Populations .................................................................................................. 6
Avoided Flood Loss due to Stormwater ........................................................................................... 8
Avoided Regional and National Economic Impacts ........................................................................ 9
Avoided Transportation Impacts .................................................................................................... 10
Avoided Deployment of Emergency Services ............................................................................... 12

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Tables
1.0 OVERVIEW
Table 1. Overview of Benefits Calculated and Included in the Benefit Cost Ratio .................................... 7 
Table 2 All Applicable Costs included in the Benefit Cost Analysis .......................................................... 8 
Table 3. Benefit Cost Analysis Results ..................................................................................................... 8 
Table 4. BCA Crosswalk ........................................................................................................................... 9 
2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Table 1 Example Design Elevation Development Process ..................................................................... 28
Table 2. Coastal Protection for Two Bridges Potential Social Programming Elements by Type and
Square Footage ...................................................................................................................................... 34
Table 3. Manhattan Tip Social Programming Elements by Type and Square Footage .......................... 36
Table 4 Costs of Existing Resiliency Actions .......................................................................................... 57
3.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS
Table 1. Top Ten Industries within the Target Area, 2013 ...................................................................... 83
Table 2. Higher Temperature Occurrences .......................................................................................... 104
4.0 BENEFITS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BENEFIT COST RATIO
Table 1. Vegetation Calculations .............................................................................................................. 2
Table 2. TANF Savings ............................................................................................................................. 4
Table 3. Coastal Protection for Two Bridges, Total Impact Summary ...................................................... 5
Table 4. Coastal Protection for Manhattan Tip, Total Impact Summary ................................................... 5
Table 5. NYCHA Stormwater, Total Impact Summary .............................................................................. 6
Table 6. Total Project Impact Summary .................................................................................................... 6
Table 7. Stock Market Conditions Pre- and Post-Sandy ......................................................................... 10
Table 8. Subway Stations Protected by the Lower Manhattan Protect and Connect Project ................. 11
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Figures
1.0 OVERVIEW
Figure 1 Flooding on FDR Drive Following Hurricane Sandy (photo by Beth Carey, flickr) ...................... 2 
2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Figure 1 Example Site Location .............................................................................................................. 28
Figure 2 Development of Proposed Level of Coastal Protection ............................................................ 29
Figure 3 NYCHA Campuses ................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 4 Coastal Protection Activity Boundaries based on Tie-ins to Higher Ground, shown on
topographic map ..................................................................................................................................... 33
3.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS
Figure 1. NYCHA Housing Developments in Lower Manhattan. Source: NYC OpenData .................... 65
Figure 2. Lower Manhattan Shoreline: Then and Now. Source: A Stronger, More Resilient New York.
Southern Manhattan ............................................................................................................................... 70
Figure 3. Hazardous Substance Reporting by Borough. Source: NYC Hazardous Materials
Management. 2014 Annual Report. ........................................................................................................ 72
Figure 4 Landmarks and Key Assets in Target Area .............................................................................. 76
Figure 5 Parks and Playgrounds in Target Area ..................................................................................... 77
Figure 6 Community Centers in the Target Area .................................................................................... 78
Figure 7 Government Agencies Located within the Target Area ............................................................ 79
Figure 8 Schools and Universities Located within the Target Area ........................................................ 80
Figure 9. New York Bight ........................................................................................................................ 91
Figure 10 Inundation Area for the 1% Annual Chance Coastal Flood Event, plus Sea Level Rise ........ 92
Figure 11. New York Times Map: Location of Deaths from Hurricane Sandy ........................................ 93
Figure 12. FDR Drive, located along the east side of Manhattan, is an example critical transportation
corridor .................................................................................................................................................... 98
Figure 13. Riders Line up for Bus Bridge Vehicles. Source: Transportation During and After Hurricane
Sandy. 2012. ........................................................................................................................................... 99
Figure 14. Causes of NYC Sewer Backup ............................................................................................ 100
Figure 15. Representation of Relationship between Temperature and Vegetation in the New York City
Area Source: http://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Cleantech-and-Innovation/Environment/New-York-City-
Regional-Heat-Island-Initiative .............................................................................................................. 103
Figure 16. Heat Wave-Related Health Impact ...................................................................................... 105
4.0 BENEFITS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BENEFIT COST RATIO
Figure 1. Ecosystem Services and Resilience Infographic. Source: Biodiversity International (n.d.).
Productive agricultural ecosystems. [web page] located at:
http://www.bioversityinternational.org/research-portfolio/agricultural-ecosystems/ .................................. 1
Figure 2. Direction- Distance Map of Jobs Held by Two Bridges Residents ............................................. 7
Figure 3. Distance-Direction Map of Worker Commutes into the Target Area .......................................... 8
Figure 4. Subway Stations and Lines Protected by the Project .............................................................. 11
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Figure 5. Excerpt from Lower Manhattan Sandy Recovery Map Illustrating Recovery Equipment
Deployed, c/o NYC DOT (December 2012) ............................................................................................ 12
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I.  EXECUTIVE 
SUMMARY 
1.0 OVERVIEW
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1.0 OVERVIEW
Phase 2 applicants pursuing funding for covered projects1 through HUD’s National Disaster Resilience
Competition (NDRC) must complete a comprehensive benefit cost analysis (BCA): one that considers
economic, environmental, social, and resiliency factors to ensure that project benefits outweigh the
costs. The results of the BCA alone are not cause to reject or approve a proposal. For the purposes of
this grant competition, HUD recognizes that soundness of approach includes fundamental project
elements such as feasibility, replicability, public desirability, meeting unmet needs, reducing risk, and
improving resiliency. The value of the project will increase as it prevents future loss time and time
again. The analysis for New York City’s (NYC) Phase 2 proposal, Lower Manhattan Protect and
Connect, followed a carefully considered process which included direct project benefits and secondary
impacts of those benefits.
Hurricane Sandy proved the extent of vulnerabilities in the project’s Target Area (see Application
Exhibits for more on this). The storm caused widespread damage to homes, businesses, and critical
infrastructure. Transportation, electricity, communication systems, hospitals, and schools in Lower
Manhattan, which contains the Target Area, were out of service for days or weeks following the storm.
The loss of function of these systems affected millions of people, and compelled NYC to plan for
greater resilience from coastal storms and other pressing hazards.
The Lower Manhattan Protect and Connect Project is part of Manhattan’s Integrated Flood Protection
System strategy for resiliency. This Integrated Flood Protection System includes the East Side Coastal
Resiliency (ESCR) project in progress and adjacent to the proposed Lower Manhattan Protect and
Connect Project, as well as future planned extensions of the system. The project will integrate
resiliency components into the urban fabric of the Target Area by implementing and increasing
protection efforts against such hazards as coastal flooding, stormwater and combined sewer related
flooding, urban heat island effects, and loss of affordable housing, while increasing connectivity
between neighborhoods and enhancing the community landscape. Two primary components of this
strategy are proposed for this effort: Coastal flood protection and stormwater protection, both of which
incorporate place making and connectivity themes. The Lower Manhattan Protect and Connect project
proposes to implement these strategies through four independent activities that together will protect the
Target Area for generations to come.
 Coastal Protection for Two Bridges, which includes coastal flood protection, stormwater and
combined sewer overflow (CSO) mitigation, and protect and connect solutions
 NYCHA Stormwater Management
through Placemaking, which includes
stormwater and CSO flood mitigation and
connect and protect solutions
 Coastal Protection for Manhattan Tip,
which includes coastal flood protection,
stormwater and CSO flood mitigation and
protect and connect solutions
 Multifamily Resiliency Retrofit Program,
which includes flood protection, as well as
power supply protections and efficiency
for affordable housing
Figure 1 Flooding on FDR Drive Following Hurricane
Sandy (photo by Beth Carey, flickr)

1 Definition of covered project
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These proposed activities, and their interdependent subparts, are described and analyzed in greater
detail in Attachment F 2.0 Project Description. While these activities can be implemented
independently, and delays or complications for implementation in one activity will not affect the other,
the whole of the Lower Manhattan Protect and Connect project is greater than the sum of its parts. All
four are required to achieve the vision and to meet the Unmet Need described in Exhibit B, Exhibit E,
and Exhibit D of the application.
The Target Area is home to populations subject to economic and social conditions that reduce
resiliency against the impacts of coastal storms. Although the Target Area contains a concentration of
affordable housing units, Lower Manhattan suffers from a shortage of affordable housing as a whole
and the public housing developments that exist within the Target Area are aging, vulnerable to floods,
and disconnected from the surrounding communities.
These conditions can only be addressed through a comprehensive resiliency strategy. The project
proposes public amenities that offer opportunities for public art, new retail incubator spaces,
recreational areas, and programmable community spaces. The coastal protection element is expected
to provide protection up to the 1-percent annual chance coastal flood event, accommodating 30 inches
of expected sea level rise during the project’s useful life and 2 to 3 feet of freeboard,2 and the
stormwater protection element protects to the 20-percent annual chance 24 hour storm event, while
normal outfall capacity is restricted due to outfall closures required during a storm surge or extreme
high tide.
NYC hired ARCADIS to support the completion of this BCA. Applicant stakeholders helped define
appropriate benefits for the assessment during meetings throughout the proposal development
process, principally attended by representatives from the NYC Economic Development Corporation
(EDC), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Office of Resiliency and Recovery (ORR), the
NYC Housing Authority (NYCHA), and the Department of Housing Preservation and Development
(HPD). Other stakeholders that reviewed and contributed to the BCA included representatives from the
NYC Department of Transportation (DOT), Department of Community Planning (DCP), and Parks and
Recreation (Parks) (see Attachment D).
In order to demonstrate the benefits expected from investment in the proposed Lower Manhattan
Protect and Connect project, analysts evaluated two broad, umbrella categories of benefits: resiliency
value (losses avoided), and inherent, or programmed, value (benefits added). Resiliency value includes
consideration of such factors as avoided direct physical damages, economic impacts, public assets and
lifeline impacts, and human impacts, such as casualties and mental stress and anxiety; while Inherent
value considers added environmental benefits, social benefits, and economic revitalization benefits.
Principle sources of methodologies and data standards for the development of the BCA originated from
entities such as the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA), Earth Economics, as well as literary publishers and journals.

2 Source of sea level rise: Horton, Radley, Christopher Little, Vivien Gornitz, Daniel Bader, and Michael
Oppenheimer. New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report, Chapter 2: Sea Level Rise and Coastal
Storms. January 2015.
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