Belgium/Luxembourg.

100 Pages·4.818 MB·English

by  OECD

BELGIUM
LUXEMBOURG
OECD
OCPE
19 9 4
OECD
ECONOMIC
BELGIUM
LUXEMBOURG
ORGANISATIONFORECONOMICCO-OPERATIONANDDEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC
CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuantto Article I oftheConvention signed in Paris on 14th
December 1960, and which cameinto force on 30th September 1961,
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD)shallpromotepoliciesdesigned:
to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and
employment and a rising standard of living in Member
countries, whilemaintainingfinancial stability,andthusto
contributetothedevelopmentoftheworldeconomy;
to contribute to sound economic expansion in Memberas
well as non-membercountries in the process ofeconomic
development; and
to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a
multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with
internationalobligations.
The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria,
Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,
Ireland,Italy,Luxembourg,theNetherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United
States. The following countries became Members subsequently
through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April
1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971) and
New Zealand (29th May 1973). The Commission of the European
Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 ofthe
OECDConvention).
Publiéégalementenfrançais.
©OECD 1994
Applicationsforpermissiontoreproduceortranslate
allorpartofthispublicationshouldbemadeto:
HeadofPublicationsService,OECD
2,rueAndré-Pascal,75775PARISCEDEX 16,France
Table of contents
BELGIUM
Introduction 15
I. Recent trends and prospects: a pronounced cyclical downturn 17
Overview of the downturn 17
Demand and output 18
The labour market 22
Costs and prices 29
International competitiveness, foreign trade and the balance
of payments 33
Short-term prospects 37
II. Economic policies in an unsettled environment 40
Monetary policy 41
Budgetary policy 46
Protecting competitiveness 52
Labour-market policy 54
Other structural policies 56
III. Impact of the ageing of the population on social expenditure 58
The main features of population ageing and its impact 58
Population ageing and the health-care system 65
The pensions problem 67
rV. Conclusions 75
Notes and references 82
Annexes
I. The transformation of Belgium into a federal state 87
II. The pension system in Belgium 89
III. Calendar of main economic events 91
Statistical and structural annex 125
Box
Global plan for employment, competitiveness and the social security
system 13
Tables
Text
1. Demand and output: recent trends and projections 19
2. Standardised unemployment rates: an international comparison 25
3. Unemployment and special programmes 26
4. Key figures on the labour market 28
5. Labour costs in the private sector 30
6. Balance of payments of the BLEU 36
7. The general government budget 49
8. The budgetary cost of unemployment 55
9. Population structure from 1950 to 2050 59
10. Average social benefits per capita and age group in 1988 63
1 1. Trends in social expenditure as a result of demographic changes 64
12. Health expenditure 66
13. Trends in pension expenditure 68
14. Estimated net pension commitments 70
15. Different scenarios for the financing of pensions 72
16. Public finance projections carried out with MALTESE 73
Statistical and structural annex
Selected background statistics 126
A. Gross domestic product 127
B. Income and expenditure of households and private non-profit
institutions 128
C. Income and expenditure of enterprises 129
D. Government revenue and expenditure 130
E. Area breakdown of foreign trade 131
F. Commodity breakdown of foreign trade 132
G. BLEU balance of payments 133
H. Structure of output and performance indicators 134
I. Labour market indicators 136
J. Public sector 137
K. Financial markets 138
Diagrams
Text
1. Investment in the business sector 20
2. Labour force, employment and unemployment 23
3. Overview of the labour market 27
4. Consumer prices 32
5. Competitiveness and trade 35
6. Interest rates and the exchange rate 42
7. Interest differentials with Germany 44
8. General government public finances 47
9. Impact of population ageing on the labour market 61
10. Ratio between total pension expenditure and remuneration 65
11. Projections of pension expenditure 71
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Table of contents
LUXEMBOURG
Introduction 95
I. The macroeconomic situation: dual trends in the economy 97
Recent developments 97
Short-term prospects 106
II. Economic policies: rising deficits 108
Budgetary policy 108
Other structural policies 1 14
III. Conclusions 1 18
Notes and references 120
Annex
I. Calendar of main economic events 122
Statistical and structural annex 139
Tables
Text
1. Demand and output: recent trends and projections 98
2. Current balance of payments 100
3. General government balances 109
4. Central government budget 110
Statistical and structural annex
Selected background statistics 140
A. Gross national product 141
B. Labour market 142
C. Structure of output and performance indicators 143
D. Public sector 144
E. Financial markets 145
Diagrams
Text
1. Labour market developments 102
2. Industrial production, producer prices and unit labour costs 104
3. Consumer prices 105
4. Steel production and real GDP growth 116
ThisSurveyisbasedon theSecretariat'sstudyprepared
for the annual review ofBelgium and Luxembourg by the
Economic and Development Review Committee on 28th
October1993.
After revisions in the light ofdiscussions during the
review, final approval ofthe Surveyforpublication was
givenbythe Committeeon 9thDecember1993.
The previous Survey ofBelgium and Luxembourg was
issuedinJuly 1992.