Beat the Market: Win with Proven Stock Selection and Market Timing Tools

209 Pages·2008·1.41 MB·English

by  Gerald Appel

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From the Library of Melissa Wong
PRAISE FOR
WIN WITH PROVEN STOCK SELECTION AND
MARKET TIMING TOOLS
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“This new book by Gerald Appel follows the rich legacy he has
established over the years; it is a treasure chest of valuable
advice which bestows on the reader the benefit of his decades of
investment experience. It receives my highest recommendation.”
—Edward D. Dobson, President, Traders Press
From the Library of Melissa Wong
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From the Library of Melissa Wong
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BEAT
THE
MARKET
WIN WITH
PROVEN STOCK
SELECTION AND
MARKET TIMING
TOOLS
From the Library of Melissa Wong
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From the Library of Melissa Wong
BEAT ptg
THE
MARKET
WIN WITH
PROVEN STOCK
SELECTION AND
MARKET TIMING
TOOLS
GERALD APPEL
From the Library of Melissa Wong
Vice President, Publisher: Tim Moore
Associate Publisher and Director of Marketing: Amy Neidlinger
Executive Editor: Jim Boyd
Editorial Assistants: Pamela Boland and Myesha Graham
Operations Manager: Gina Kanouse
Digital Marketing Manager: Julie Phifer
Publicity Manager: Laura Czaja
Assistant Marketing Manager: Megan Colvin
Cover Designer: R&D&Co
Managing Editor: Kristy Hart
Project Editor: Todd Taber
Copy Editor: Water Crest Publishing, Inc.
Proofreader: Paula Lowell ptg
Senior Indexer: Cheryl Lenser
Senior Compositor: Gloria Schurick
Manufacturing Buyer: Dan Uhrig
© 2009 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Publishing as FT Press
Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458
This book is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in
rendering legal, accounting or other professional services or advice by publishing this book. Each
individual situation is unique. Thus, if legal or financial advice or other expert assistance is
required in a specific situation, the services of a competent professional should be sought to
ensure that the situation has been evaluated carefully and appropriately. The author and the
publisher disclaim any liability, loss, or risk resulting directly or indirectly, from the use or
application of any of the contents of this book.
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Company and product names mentioned herein are the trademarks or registered trademarks of
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All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means,
without permission in writing from the publisher.
Printed in the United States of America
First Printing December 2008
ISBN-10: 0-13-235917-0
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-235917-7
Pearson Education LTD.
Pearson Education Australia PTY, Limited.
Pearson Education Singapore, Pte. Ltd.
Pearson Education North Asia, Ltd.
Pearson Education Canada, Ltd.
Pearson Educación de Mexico, S.A. de C.V.
Pearson Education—Japan
Pearson Education Malaysia, Pte. Ltd.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Appel, Gerald.
Beat the market—win with proven stock : selection and market timing tools / Gerald Appel.
p. cm.
ISBN 0-13-235917-0 (hbk. : alk. paper) 1. Investments. 2. Speculation. 3. Portfolio
management. I. Title.
HG4521.A636 2009
332.63’22--dc22
2008026062
From the Library of Melissa Wong
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This book is dedicated to my grandchildren,
Emily, Caroline, and Alexandra,
who bring so much life and love to wherever they go…
From the Library of Melissa Wong
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From the Library of Melissa Wong
C
ONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
Prologue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii ptg
CHAPTER 1 Your Basic Investment Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The Best and Worst Mindsets for Profitable Investing . . 3
CHAPTER 2 Bond-Stock Valuation Models—A Key Market
Forecasting Tool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
The Search for Something Simple, Useful,
and Stable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Bond-Stock Valuation Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Investments to Be Compared . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
The General Concept of Bond-Stock Valuation
Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Money Goes Where It Is Best Treated . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Interest Rate Relationships and Past Performance . . . . 17
Further Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Further Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
CHAPTER 3 Government Bond Yields Compared
to Earnings Yields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Implications of the Safety of Government
Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Averaging Yields of Longer-Term Treasury Notes
and Shorter-Term Treasury Bills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Compare Earnings Yields from Stocks to Interest
Yields, This Time from the Highest Grade
of Government Income Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Commentary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Handling Money Management at Other Times . . . . . . 31
ix
From the Library of Melissa Wong