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268 Pages·2012·1.073 MB·English
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Barack Obama’s Post-American Foreign Policy This page intentionally left blank Barack Obama’s Post-American Foreign Policy The Limits of Engagement Robert Singh B L O O M S B U R Y A C A D E M I C First published in 2012 by Bloomsbury Academic an imprint of Bloomsbury Publishing Plc 50 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3DP, UK and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA Copyright © Robert Singh 2012 This work is published subject to a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Licence. You may share this work for non-commercial purposes only, provided you give attribution to the copyright holder and the publisher. For permission to publish commercial versions please contact Bloomsbury Academic. CIP records for this book are available from the British Library and the Library of Congress ISBN 978-1-78093-038-1 (hardback) ISBN 978-1-78093-037-4 (paperback) ISBN 978-1-78093-113-5 (ebook) ISBN 978-1-78093-112-8 (ebook PDF) This book is produced using paper that is made from wood grown in managed, sustainable forests. It is natural, renewable and recyclable. The logging and manufacturing processes conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books Group, Bodmin, Cornwall. Cover image: © Jason Reed/Reuters/Corbis www.bloomsburyacademic.com To Alia Advance Praise for Barack Obama’s Post-American Foreign Policy: The Limits of Engagement Outstanding. This is the single best book to grasp and assess the international priorities and overall foreign policy record of the Obama administration. Rather than simply taking for granted the superiority of the president's distinctive foreign policy approach, Singh subjects it to a genuinely sophisticated, nuanced, and critical analysis. He fi nds that Obama has transformed US foreign policy much less than might have been expected, and that an emphasis on diplomatic engagement has run up against its own limitations. Systematic, intelligent, and thoroughly convincing. — Colin Dueck, George Mason University, USA Rob Singh has two big things exactly right: Barack Obama's hope to transform American foreign policy is truly audacious, but his struggle against past American strategic culture and habits of international leadership is, at best, incomplete. And he offers not just an analysis of the story to date, but a way to understand what a second Obama term would mean. — Thomas Donnelly, Director, Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies, American Enterprise Institute, USA Singh has done the debate over the Obama presidency a great and necessary service. He has managed to depoliticize the assessment of one of the most polarizing presidents of the recent past and offer a preliminary judgement devoid of the rancour and eulogising that accompany contemporary Obama studies. I can think of no book that ‘gets’ Obama in the manner Singh does here. This book is a seminal accounting of what promised to be a transformative international agenda and yet became a misunderstood reworking of the Bush Doctrine. You don’t have to like this interpretation; you do have to deal with it. This book is required reading for everyone – American and non-American – that in 2008 invested the Obama presidency with too much hope or too much cynicism. Singh avoids the delusions of both and offers a portrait of a foreign policy that is compelling, critical and historically-informed. — Timothy J. Lynch, editor of the Oxford Encyclopedia of American Military and Diplomatic History, University of Melbourne, Australia The co-author of the prescient and groundbreaking After Bush now focuses his considerable expertise on President Obama’s foreign policy. The result is a highly informative, thought-provoking and important work that challenges much of what passes for conventional wisdom on the subject. A must-read for all those interested in contemporary international affairs. — Rory Miller, Director of Middle East and Mediterranean Studies, King’s College London, UK Covering a wide swathe of issues, Singh presents a well-rounded exposé of the strengths and weaknesses of Obama’s foreign escapades, ensuring this is a must-read for anyone seeking to comprehend the direction of US foreign policy in the post-Bush years. — James D. Boys, Richmond University, London and the Global Policy Institute, UK Contents List of Tables x Preface and Acknowledgments xi 1 A Post-American Foreign Policy for the Post-American World 1 Introduction 2 Audacious No Longer: From the Fierce Urgency of Now to the Timidity of “Hope” 9 Contextualizing Obama 15 Plan of the Book 18 2 The “Human Ink-Blot”: Obama, Foreign Policy and the 2008 Election 21 Introduction 21 “I’ve Got a Confusion on Obama”: Cosmopolitan, Liberal Internationalist, Realist, Reaganite, Leftist? 25 The Stealth Candidate: Symbolism as Strategy (Hope) and Substance (Change) 28 Commander-in-Chief/Cosmopolitan-in-Chief 31 Conclusion 37 3 The Obama Doctrine: “Leading From Behind” 39 Introduction 39 Obama’s Grand Strategy: Engagement 41 Implementing Strategic Engagement (2009–12) 48 The Conservative Critique: Obama and the End of American Exceptionalism 56 Conclusion 63 4 Afghanistan, Pakistan and the War on Terror 66 Introduction 66 Un-Declaring the War on Terror 68 From the Team of Rivals to Rival Teams 73 Pakistan: Failing State of Terror 77 Conclusion: the Limits of Strategic Engagement in South Asia 86 vii viii CONTENTS 5 Iran 89 Introduction 90 Extending a Hand, Unclenching a Fist: Towards a “Grand Bargain” 91 The Iranian Presidential Election Crisis of 2009 93 From Engagement to Sanctions to Regime Change 95 Evaluating Obama’s Iran Strategy 98 Iraq 105 Conclusion: the Limits of Strategic Engagement with Iran 107 6 Israel, Palestine and the Arab Spring 111 Introduction 111 Obama’s Strategic Options 113 Israel and the Palestinian Territories 115 The Arab Spring: the Inevitable Surprise 123 Egypt 125 Libya 127 Syria 130 Conclusion: the Limits of Strategic Engagement in the Middle East 134 7 China 139 Introduction 140 US China Strategy for the 2010s: Peaceful Rise, Post-Ascent Aggression or Unpeaceful Collapse? 143 Obama and China: from Engagement to Hedging 148 Economic Relations 149 Chinese Military Developments: Enter the Dragon 154 Taiwan 157 Conclusion: the Limits of Strategic Engagement with China 159 8 Russia 162 Introduction 163 Resetting Russian-American Relations 166 Missile Defense, New START, and Afghanistan 169 Missile Defense 169 New START 172 Afghanistan, Central Asia and the “Post-Soviet Space” 175 Resetting the Reset? 176 Conclusion: the Limits of Strategic Engagement with Russia 180 CONTENTS ix 9 Keep the Change: Continuity We Can Believe In 184 Introduction 185 The Four Limits of Strategic Engagement 190 Conclusion 199 Notes 203 Bibliography 227 Index 243

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