Avoiding the Abyss: Progress, Shortfalls, and the Way Ahead in Combating the WMD Threat

441 Pages·2006·2.28 MB·English

by  Barry R. Schneider

A A
VOIDING THE BYSS
Praeger Security International Advisory Board
BoardCochairs
Loch K. Johnson, Regents Professorof Public and International Affairs,
SchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairs,UniversityofGeorgia(U.S.A.)
PaulWilkinson,ProfessorofInternationalRelationsandChairmanofthe
AdvisoryBoard,CentrefortheStudyofTerrorismandPoliticalViolence,
UniversityofSt.Andrews(U.K.)
Members
ViceAdmiralArthurK.Cebrowski,USN(Ret.),formerDirectorofForce
Transformation,OfficeoftheSecretaryofDefense(U.S.A.)
EliotA.Cohen,RobertE.OsgoodProfessorofStrategicStudiesandDirec-
tor, Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Paul H. Nitze School of
AdvancedInternationalStudies,TheJohnsHopkinsUniversity(U.S.A.)
Anthony H. Cordesman, ArleighA. BurkeChairin Strategy, Centerfor
StrategicandInternationalStudies(U.S.A.)
The´re`seDelpech,SeniorResearchFellow,CERI(AtomicEnergyCommis-
sion),Paris(France)
SirMichaelHoward,formerProfessorofHistoryofWar,OxfordUniver-
sity,andProfessorofMilitaryandNavalHistory,YaleUniversity(U.K.)
LieutenantGeneralClaudiaJ.Kennedy,USA(Ret.),formerDeputyChief
ofStaffforIntelligence,Headquarters,DepartmentoftheArmy(U.S.A.)
PaulM.Kennedy,J.RichardsonDilworthProfessorofHistoryandDirec-
tor,InternationalSecurityStudies,YaleUniversity(U.S.A.)
Robert J. O’Neill, former Chichele Professor of the History of War, All
SoulsCollege,OxfordUniversity(Australia)
ShibleyTelhami,AnwarSadatChairforPeaceandDevelopment,Depart-
mentofGovernmentandPolitics,UniversityofMaryland(U.S.A.)
Jusuf Wanandi, co-founder and member, Board of Trustees, Centre for
StrategicandInternationalStudies(Indonesia)
FareedZakaria,Editor,NewsweekInternational(U.S.A.)
A A
VOIDING THE BYSS
Progress, Shortfalls, and the Way
Ahead in Combating the WMD Threat
Edited by Barry R. Schneider
and Jim A. Davis
PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL
Westport, Connecticut London
•
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Avoidingtheabyss:progress,shortfalls,andthewayaheadincombatingtheWMDthreat
/editedbyBarryR.SchneiderandJimA.Davis.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN0-275-99033-8(alk.paper)
1. Weaponsofmassdestruction.2. Armscontrol.3. Nuclearnonproliferation.4.
Nationalsecurity—UnitedStates. I.Davis,JimA.II.Schneider,BarryR.
U793.A862006
327.1´745—dc22 2006006637
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataisavailable.
Copyright©2006byBarryR.SchneiderandJimA.Davis
Allrightsreserved.Noportionofthisbookmaybe
reproduced,byanyprocessortechnique,withoutthe
expresswrittenconsentofthepublisher.
LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber:2006006637
ISBN: 0–275–99033–8
Firstpublishedin2006
PraegerSecurityInternational,88PostRoadWest,Westport,CT06881
AnimprintofGreenwoodPublishingGroup,Inc.
www.praeger.com
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
Thepaperusedinthisbookcomplieswiththe
PermanentPaperStandardissuedbytheNational
InformationStandardsOrganization(Z39.48–1984).
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Theviewsexpressed inthispublicationarethoseoftheauthors anddo
notnecessarilyreflectthe official policyor position of theU.S. Govern-
ment,DepartmentofDefense,ortheUSAFCounterproliferationCenter.

Contents
Acknowledgments ix
1 OveraDecadeofCounterproliferation 1
JimA.Davis
2 TheWMDProliferationThreat 19
JonathanB.Wolfsthal
3 WeaponsofMassDestructionTerrorism 49
JerroldM.Post,LauritaM.Denny,andPolinaKozak
4 Nonproliferation—ChallengesOldandNew 75
BradRoberts
5 ProgressinCounterforce1993–2004 97
BarryR.Schneider
6 EmergingMissileChallengesandImprovingActiveDefenses 127
JeffreyA.LarsenandKerryM.Kartchner
7 PassiveDefenseagainsttheWMDThreat:Progress 157
andShortfalls
WalterL.Busbee,AlbertJ.Mauroni,andJohnV.Wade
8 ConsequenceManagement 175
BruceW.BennettandRichardA.Love
9 Counter-WMDConceptsofOperationsatU.S. 203
andAlliedAirBases
CharlesR.Heflebower,LauraJ.LeGallo,JohnP.Lawrence,
andBertA.Cline
10 U.S.CounterproliferationCooperationwithAllies 231
PeterR.LavoyandGayleD.Meyers
11 SecuringtheHomeland:TheFirstDecade 255
RandallJ.LarsenandPatrickD.Ellis
12 SeekingaPortintheWMDStorm:Counterproliferation 291
Progress,Shortfalls,andtheWayAhead
BarryR.Schneider
viii Contents
AppendixA:“TheCounterproliferationInitiative” 333
RemarksbyHonorableLesAspin
AppendixB:NationalStrategytoCombatWeapons 339
ofMassDestruction
AppendixC:ReformingtheChemicalandBiological 349
DefenseProgram,1996–2001
AlbertJ.Mauroni
Acronyms 355
Notes 365
Index 411
AbouttheContributors 419
Acknowledgments
Publishing a book covering the progress, the shortfalls, and the way
ahead of the Department of Defense (DoD) Counterproliferation effort
fromtheearly1990stotoday,andthesuccessesandfailuresoftheHome-
land Security Program since September 11, 2001, until the present, has
been no small task. Identifying and bringing together 22 world-class
authorsandsubject-matterexpertstosharetheirinsightsandconclusions
withusonthesubjectwasalengthyprocess,buttheendproductisone
thatshouldbenefittheDoDincombatingthethreatposedbythoseadver-
saries pursuing or in possession of chemical, biological, radiological,
and/or nuclear weapons. We wish to thank the contributors of each of
the chapters for their quality work and for bearing with the editors
throughthislongandsometimesarduousprocess.
Thisistheonlybookofitskindattemptingtocoverthissubject,andit
would nothavebeenpossiblewithoutthefundingand encouragement
fromtwoimportantdefenseorganizationsandtheirleadership.Aspecial
thanks goes to the office of the Deputy Assistant to the Secretary of
DefenseforChemicalandBiologicalDefense,Dr.KlausSchafer,andhis
predecessorsinthatoffice,BrigadierGeneralPatriciaNiloandDr.Anna
Johnson-Winegar,whoorderedthisstudy,andtotheChemicalandBio-
logical Directorate of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency under
Dr.CharlesGallaway,whofundedthestudy.
Likewise, there were many other individuals and organizations that
havesupportedthisprojectbyfurnishinginformationandperspectives.
Particularly,wearegratefulforthecontinuousexpertiseandfundingsup-
portfrom the Air Staff’s Nuclear and Counterproliferation Directorate,
XOS-FCnowdirectedbyColonelTomBillickandoverseenbyBrigadier
General (Select)RobertHolmes andMajorGeneralRogerBurg.Thanks
areduealsototheirverysupportivepredecessorsinthosepositions,Col-
onelFranklinWolfandMajorGeneralRobertSmolen.
Ofcoursethetediousworkofbringingtheprojecttofruitionwasthe
result of hundreds of hours of behind-the-scene efforts from our USAF
CounterproliferationCenter(CPC)staffindrafting,typing,editing,and
coordinatingthechaptersofthisvolume.Mostnotableintheircontribu-
tions to this project are our Assistant Director, Mrs. Jo Ann Eddy, and
ourAssociateEditorforCPCPublications,Mrs.AbbeyPlant.Inaddition,
Mrs.BrendaAlexanderwasalsoaverydiligentworkerbehindthescenes