Averting Global War: Regional Challenges, Overextension, and Options for American Strategy

287 Pages·2007·1.427 MB·English

by  Hall Gardner (auth.)

Averting Global War
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Averting Global War
Regional Challenges, Overextension, and
Options for American Strategy
Hall Gardner
averting global war
Copyright © Hall Gardner, 2007.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2007 978-0-230-60085-0
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner what-
soever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in criti-
cal articles or reviews.
First published in 2007 by
palgrave macmillan™
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Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS.
Companies and representatives throughout the world.
palgrave macmillanis the global academic imprint of the Palgrave
Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.
Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other
countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries.
ISBN 978-0-230-60086-7 ISBN 978-0-230-60873-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230608733
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Gardner, Hall.
Averting global war : regional challenges, overextension, and options for American
strategy / Hall Gardner.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. War—Prevention—International cooperation. 2. Conflict management—Case
studies. 3. Geopolitics. I. Title.
JZ6387.G37 2007
355'.033073—dc22 2007018466
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Design by Scribe Inc.
Cover painting “Timocrat” by Hall Gardner
First edition: December 2007
1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
For my family, once again
Upon the breaking and shivering of a great state and empire, you may be sure to
have wars. . . . The great accessions and unions of kingdoms do likewise stir up
wars; for when a state grows to an over-power, it is like a great flood, that will be
sure to overflow.... When a warlike state grows soft and effeminate, they may be
sure of a war. For commonly such states are grown rich in the time of their degen-
erating; and so the prey inviteth, and their decay in valor, encourageth a war.
—Francis Bacon (1561–1626), “Of Vicissitude of Things”
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Contents
Preface ix
Introduction “Crying Wolf” Once Again? 1
Chapter 1 Triptych of Terrorism 13
Chapter 2 The Uncoordinated NATO-EU “Double
Enlargement”: Toward the Isolation of Russia? 37
Chapter 3 Iraq: Sinking Deeper into Mesopotamian Quicksand 65
Chapter 4 Iran: Nuclear High Tension and Holocaust Polemics 79
Chapter 5 Israel and Palestinian Fratricide:
Beyond the “Two State Solution”? 101
Chapter 6 An Ever-widening Zone of Conflict,
Terrorism, and Black Market Activities:
From Central Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa 117
Chapter 7 North Korea: Beyond “Backdoor” Multilateralism 141
Chapter 8 China and Blue-water Dreams:
Toward a Sino-Russian Alliance? 163
Chapter 9 Three Dimensions of “Montezuma’s Revenge”:
Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian Vision, “War on
Drugs,”and “Illegal” Immigration 179
Chapter 10 American Hypertrophy and Strategic Options:
Toward a Geostrategy for Global Peace 209
Notes 231
Bibliography 271
Index 277
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Preface
The purpose of Averting Global War: Regional Challenges, Overexten-
sion, and Options for American Strategy is to develop a more concilia-
tory U.S. strategy intended to resolve key international disputes and
conflicts that have arisen since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World
Trade Center and Pentagon—or at least attempt to transform those disputes and
conflicts in such a way that they not further “widen” or possibly draw major pow-
ers into confrontation. The book argues that shifting post–cold war alliance and
power relationships at the global, regional, and domestic levels; the introduction of
revolutionary military technologies and strategies, including asymmetrical tactics
of warfare; conflicting irredentist claims; the quest for guaranteed access to
energy supplies and trade; and the protection of “vital” spheres of interest and
security have all augmented the likelihood of even wider regional conflicts—if
not a major power war—given the increasingly fractious nature of major and
regional power rivalries coupled with significant acts of “terrorism.”
The book accordingly examines both domestic U.S. and international debates
and responses to a number of major international disputes, conflicts, and crises.
It concludes by arguing that the next U.S. administration, whether Democratic
or Republican, will need to work diligently to forge a truly multilateral strategy,
along with both “democratic liberal” and “illiberal” major and regional powers,
in the formation of cooperative and interlocking patchworks of “regional security
communities” that are intended to stabilize—and then develop—volatile areas
throughout the planet—if the very real possibility of major power war is to be
averted in the not-so-distant future.
In attempting to identify differing species of foreign policy makers, I have out-
lined an ornithology of hawks, doves, owls, eagles, ostriches, gulls, vultures, super
hawks, and chicken hawks whose explicit meanings in reference to U.S. foreign
policy are defined in Chapter 10. In the effort to prevent wider conflicts, I have
urged American policy makers to adopt an “owlish” geostrategy, with the under-
standing that owls as birds of prey represent realists, but they also symbolize fore-
sight (in that they can look in all directions) in the Occidental tradition
stemming from ancient Greece.
And yet, as we are increasingly confronted with multicultural perspectives in
this era of “globalization,” I subsequently learned that owls can represent birds of