Availability of World Energy Resources

353 Pages·1980·30.694 MB·English

by  D. C. Ion (auth.)

Availability
of World Energy
Resources
Availability
of World Energy
Resources
DClon
ENERGY INFORMATIONAL SERVICES
McGraw-Hili, Inc.
Energy Informational Services
McGraw-Hill, Inc.
1221 Avenue ofthe Americas
New York, N.Y. 10020
©D CIon 1975, 1980
Softcoverreprintofthehardcover1stedition 1980
Library ofCongress Catalog Card Number 81-80984
ISBN-13: 978-94-009-8729-6 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-8727-2
DOl: 10.1007/978-94-009-8727-2
All rights reserved. No part ofthis publication may bereproduced
in a retrievalsystem, ortransmitted in any form or byanymeans
mechanical, photocopying, recordingorotherwise, without the permission
ofthe publishers.
Contents
List ofTables
List ofFigures
INTRODUCTION
RESOURCE DEFINITIONS AND MEASUREMENT
Defmitions
Resource Bases
Resources and Reserves Measurement
2 RESOURCES 25
3 RESOURCES TO RESERVES 41
4 PROVED RESERVES 60
5 PRODUCTION 91
6 CONVERSION 164
7 TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE 196
8 DEMAND 210
9 SUPPLYAND DEMAND 256
10 CONCLUSIONS 296
Appendices
I. List ofReferences 314
II. Abbreviations 335
III. Conversion factors 336
INDEX 338
Moredetailedchapterbreakdownscanbeobtainedfrom boldentriesin the index
LISTOFTABLES
Page
1. Comparisonofcrudeoilreservesbymassand energycontent 12
2. EstimateofCanada'sultimaterecoverable potentialofcrudeoil 21
3. Worldprobableannualgeneratingcapacityfromhydraulicresources 28
4. Estimatedprobablehydro-electricdevelopment, 1976-2020,(1978) 28
5. World hydroresources(1974) 29
6. Worldresourcesofsolidfossil fuels 30
7. Worldestimatedultimatecrudeoilrecovery,(1.1.1974) 32
8. World crudeoilresources, 1.1.1974, 1.1.1976, 1.1.1979 34
9. Worlduraniumresources, 1.1.1976 39
10. World reservesandresourcesofthorium, 1974 40
11. Uraniumreserves- selecteddevelopingcountries, 1977 44
12. Comparableprovedcoalreserves- anexercise 60
13. Worldenergyresources 66
14. Energycontentofprovedreserves(1974) 67
15. Geologicalcoalresourcesandreserves 69
16. World crudeoilprovedreserves, end 1978 70
17. Developmentofworldprovedreservesofcrudeoil, 1960-1979 73
18. World provedandprospectivereservesofnaturalgasliquids 74
19. World provedreservesofnaturalgas 75
20. Middle Eastprovedreservesofnaturalgas 76
21. EstimatedpotentialsupplyofnaturalgaswithinUSA 77
22. Pakistan'sprovedreservesofnaturalgasandtheirenergycontent 79
23. Estimatedoffshorereservesofnaturalgas- N.W. Europe 81
24. Ultimatelyrecoverable naturalgasreserves- UK.ContinentalShelf 82
25. Uraniumresourcesfortheworld outsideCommunistareas, 1.1.1977 85
26. EstimateofCanada'srecoverablealldprognosticatedUresources 87
27. Hydraulicenergy 89
28. Energyproductionbymajorregions 92
29. Worldcoalproduction, 1925,1965, 1977 93
30. Possiblecoal-basedsyntheticfuelproduction,USA, 1985(1974) 96
31. UScoalproductionand exports, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1983 97
32. Solidfuelproductionanduse,SouthMrica, 1972-2000,(1974) 101
33. GiantoilfieldsofCalifornia 112
34. Somepossibleworld crudeoilproductioncapacities, 1975-2025 116
35. fvliddle East - anexerciseinpossiblefuture oil production- the
assumptions, 1970-2020 123
36. MiddleEast - anexerciseinpossiblefuture oilproduction- by
countries, 1975-2025 125
37. MiddleEast - arevised exerciseinfuture oil production, 1975-2025 127
38. MiddleEastOPEC& otherOPEC,production& provedreserves 128
39. Estimatedcommercialproductionofnaturalgas, 1974& 1978 129
40. Primaryenergyproduction,USSR, 1940-1973 130
41. RegionseastofUrals,shareofUSSRfuelresourceproduction 131
42. Supportingactivitiesto USAoil&gasproduction, 1973-1985 132
43. Canadiannaturalgasproduction,consumption& exports 132
44. MajorMiddleEast naturalgasavailabilities(1977) 135
45. NorthSeaestimatedgas production(1976) 147
46. Schemesfor naturalgasimportsto N.W. Europe 153
47. Uraniumproduction,outsideUSSR, E. Europe& China, 1972-1985 160
48. Projecteduraniumproductioncapabilities,(WOCA), 1980-2025 162
49. Mainoil productconsumption, 1970&1978 170
50. Valueofhydrogenasalternative tofossil fuels 171
51. Some estLrnatedenergyproductioncosts(1979) 183
52. Comparativecapital&generatingcostsofUSpowerplants 188
53. Fuelcycleeconomicparametersandsensitivityindices 189
54. Uraniumdemandsensitivities,USA 192
55. Growthofslurrypipelines 201
56. Oilandgaspipelines 202
57. Characteristicsofvariousgenerating&storagesystems 208
58. Energyconsumptionbygroupsofcountries, 1950, 1960, 1970 215
59. Summaryofalternativeenergyresourceconsumption,
USA, 1985(1974) 224
60. Alternativepowerstationcostings,Romania,(1974) 225
61. Globalenergydemandscenarios, 1972-2020,(1977& 1978) 226
62. USA- energyconsumption, 1973-1990(1976) 228
63. USA- energyproduction, 1973-1990(1976) 228
64. Someleadtimesfor developmentofknownenergyresources(1977) 230
65. Estimatedworlduraniumrequirements&powercapacities,(1975) 232
66. Estimateofinstallednuclearcapacitybyarea,
1980,1990(1976&1979) 234
67. Effectofreactortypepatternonuraniumdemandfor uranium 235
68. Estimatedenrichmentplantcapacity& uraniumdemand,(1979) 236
69. EECEnergyreserves,(1979) 249
70. Longtermexerciseinworldenergyconsumption, 1950-2075,(Frisch)254
71. Oilexporterssurpluses, 1973-1980 259
72. OPECoilproductionandexportrevenues, 1972-1978 261
73. Worldcurrentaccountbalances, 1973-1978 262
74. UKenergybalancein2000 268
75. USSR- majorfuelsupplies 279
76. USSR- visible tradebalances 280
77. Comeconoilbalances, 1976& 1980 280
78. EuropeanComeconcountries- energybalance, 1980 281
79. EuropeanComeconcountries- energyconsumptionforecast, 2000 281
80. USA- importsofcrudeoilbycountries, 1971-1976 292
81. USA- importsofpetroleumenergyproducts, 1971-1976 293
82. USA- someestimatesoffuture oilimports 294
83. Forecastsofrole ofnuclearenergyinworld excludingChina(1974) 295
84. EECenergyforecasts ofenergysourcesupply(1974) 296
85. Ninetylessdevelopedcountriesin 1976,energy&oilimports 297
86. Energyprospectsofthe EEC 305
87. World EnergySupply& Demand, 1950-2050,(1977 & 1979) 310
LISTOFFIGURES
Page
1. Resourcesconcepts(DCI) 3
2. Resourcesdeftnitions(USA) 4
3. Resourcesclassillcationcategories(UN) 5
4. Scheme ofoilresourcesclassillcation(USSR) 6
5. Coalresourcesconcept(DCI) 16
6. Uraniumdepositsandmajoroccurrences- AfricaandMiddleEast 43
7. Uranium-depositsandmajoroccurrences- latinAmerica 43
8. World EnergyResources-linearscale 64
9. World EnergyResources-logarithmicscale 65
10. World productionand consumptionof
primaryenergysources, 1920 91
11. USACoalproduction, 1935-1970 94
12. World crudeoilproduction; 1930-1978 108
13. Annualproductionsofcrudeoil, NorthAmerica, 1920-1978 109
14. Annualcrudeoilproductions&footage drilled, California 111
15. Somepossible crudeoilavailabilities, 1970-2020 118
16. World, 1970-2020,oneprobablecrudeoilavailabilityforecast,
(1 November 1977,DCI) 120
17. Mexico- oilandgasdevelopments 121
18. Mexico- crudeoilproductionandexports, 1970-2000,some
estimates 121
19. Middle East- majorcountryoilproductionprojections, 1966-2020 126
20. NorthSea- estimatedoilproduction(1976) 139
21. HowDutchgasisused(1976) 150
2'2. NorthSeaoilandgasdevelopments 152
23. Annualworldproductionofuraniumoxide, 1945-1975 158
24. Thenuclearfuel cycle 191
25. Competitivetransmissioncostsofgas,naphtha, LNG, electricity 205
26. WesternEurope- some economicand energygrowthpossibilities 249
27. Developingcountries- someeconomicgrowthpossibilities 251
28. Japan- someeconomicgrowthpossibilities 270
29. USSR- mapofprospectiveoilandgasareas 274
30. China- exerciseinfuture oilproduction, 1970-2070 287
31. Worldenergysupply/demand, 1950-2050,(1977&1979) 307
32. World energysupplybysources, 1950-2050 311
Introduction
Energy will be a most important topic in the 1980s. The speed with which a
dozen or more trends will develop will be critical. Most of these trends are
interdependentandinteracting,andinclude:
- the degree of constraint on oil and gas supplies exercised by the producers,
whether inside or outside the OPEC, as they each attempt to matchproduc
tion to their own energy needs and the funding of their own economic
growthfrom exports,
- the depth ofthe appreciationbyindustrializedcountriesthatenergysupplies
will be tight and fossil fuels will be very expensive at least until the end of
the century,
- the actionstakenbythose countriesto ameliorate thissituation,
inexplorationfor new oiland gassources,
inexploitationeffortfornewcoalsupplies,
in acceptance ofthe needfor expansionofnuclearenergysupplies,
- the balancingofenergy supply and demandin centrally-plannedeconomies,
- the rate ofdevelopmentwithin developingcountries,includingChina,
- the developmentand adoptionofunconventionalenergy sources,
- the adaptationoftheworld fmancialsystemto new situations.
These examples highlight some ofthe continuing problems in the energy field.
These problems will be discussed in allsortsofmeetingsofallsortsofpeoplein
all sorts of places and through all forms of the communication media. Other
trends will materialize and take the centre ofthe stage, often only for a short
time. There are, however, basic facts and principles to which all trends are sub
ject. Therefore, rather than pick only some or all ofthe trends mentioned and
treat them in turn, I have chosen to retain the format of the first edition of
Availability ofWorld Energy Resources for this second edition. The horizontal
treatment ofall the energy sources, from resource base through to the supply/
demand balance, stresses the basic principle ofthe interdependence ofall ener
gies and all countries. Therefore into that format have beenmelded thevertical
treatment ofcoal, nuclear energy and the natural gas ofNorth-West Europe of
the first supplement to the original edition, the suggestion in the second sup
plement which arose from the reports which flooded 1977, together with the
facts and developments which 1978and 1979broughtalong. Hence I have again
attempted to provide a thought-provokingreferencebookonenergywithwhich
tobeequippedforthe 1980s.
The gap of ignorance between the operators in the energy industries and
others, whether in other industries, inpoliticaloracademiclifeorelsewherehas
narrowed only slightly between 1975 and 1980. Therefore themainaim ofthis
secondedition,as ofthe first edition,is to
'assist the understanding of the numbers, concepts and factors
on which judgement of energy resources problems must be based,
whetherby anindividual,grouporgovernment.'
15 December 1979 D.C. Ion
1
Resource
definitions and measurement
The resources which man can adapt to hisownuse are those which result direct
from the sun (solar energy), from the moon (lunar energy) and from the earth
(nuclear and geothermal energy), and indirectly from the sun, either historic
ally in the fossil fuels in carbon or hydrocarbon form, or currently in wind
power, water-power and by biological processes through the flora and fauna.
The direct sources create the renewable sources, for one might say that nuclear
energy is only a technique ortwo awayfrom becomingvirtually renewable. The
indirect sources of the wind, etc, are renewable but limited to being oflocal
ratherthen globalvalue. The fossil fuels are the non-renewable resources.
The carbon, hydrocarbon and nuclear resources are of the earth and their
occurrence is conditioned by the history ofthe earth. The earth is a dynamic
body, not a static one. The oceans are fundamentally different from the conti
nents. The crust under the continents is thick, about 35 km, and consists pri
marily of acidic rocks, such as granites, whereas the crust under the oceans is
thin, about 6 - 8km,and formed ofbasicrocks,like basalts.The continentsare
old and ofcomplexstructure,the ocean floors are young,beingmostlylessthan
seventy-five million years old and simple in rock type and structure.l New
oceanic crust is formed from upwelling material along the mid-ocean ridges,
with the older, outer oceanic plates being forced under the light continental
plates and being redigested into the material ofthe mantle around the core of
the earth. The continental plates have suffered many contortions. Mountains
have been formed, suffered erosion from sun, wind and water and the resulting
sediments deposited into topographically low areas. Igneous rocks have been
injected into the sediments and volcanic rocks ejected through and onto the
sediments. Forests have flourished, been submerged and buried as the earth's
geography changed. Fauna have flourished and died. There is notacubicmetre
ofthe continental crust which has nothadauniquehistory,differentfrom that
ofeveryothercubicmetre.
Thewatersofthe oceanscoverthe oceaniccrustalsegmentsand, to varying
extents, the edges ofthe continental crustal plates. Hence although the oceans
cover71%ofthesurface oftheglobe2 (363X 106km2) thesubmergedcontinen
tal shelves take up some 55 X 106 km2 ofthat and must be thought ofassub
merged land, not asocean? Thevariationsinextentofthesubmergedcontinen
taledgesare great. Chilehasvirtuallynoshelf;theUSSRhasover3.43 X 106 km2
of adjacent shallow water ofless than 100 fathoms; France with a coastline of
2,560kmhas 140,600km2 under 100fathoms and32,600km2 between 100
1,000 fathoms, whereas Spain has a coastline of 2,766 km has 68,600 km2
under 100 fathoms but 157,700 km2 between 100-1,000 fathoms. These
submergedlandshaveasvariedgeologyastheiradjacentlandmasses.
Our knowledge of the earth, geology in the broad sense, has grown rapidly
in the past two hundred years through field and laboratory work, observation
and deduction. New tools are alwaysbeingdeveloped suchasthe datingofrocks
by measuring their radio-isotopes, deep oceanic drilling and mapping ofpalaeo
magnetic trends from which developed the plate tectonic ideas ofthe structure
of the oceans. Our knowledge, however, is still incomplete and fragmentary.
There are many areas ofthe earth virtually unexplored. We do know that they
Availability ofWorld Energy Resources
will be different from anything we do know. They may be similar to areas we
know and perhapswemay be able to use analogy,but suchis the infinitevariety
of nature that homogeneity is a virtual impossibility. This is a basic thought
with which one must approach the discussion of the earth and its resources.
A second is that current knowledge is incomplete and one shouldthink and act
in the humility ofacknowledged ignorance and not with the arrogance ofuncon
sciousignorance.
Definitions
Much ofthe misunderstandingaboutnatural resourcesisdue to lack ofapprecia
tion ofour ignorance and to the misuse ofwords. Definitions ofresources and
reserves have been developed in the differentenergy industriesin different terms
for different reasons because of different uses. These definitions have been
mangled by other workers in different fields whohaveconfused and are confus
ing understanding. However,the problemis not simple;because ofthe variety of
circumstances, the lack of homogeneity and the gaps in our knowledge, no
precise standardization is possible. The best that can be done is to define the
termsbeing used and then be as consistent as possible.
In thisbook the termsused will be:
Resource base: The total amount ofthe energy sourceoccurringin the world in
commonly recognizable form.
In the renewable energy resources a time factor has to be added to allow
quantification.
In the non-renewable resources ofthe fossil fuels the amount ofthe coal-in
place oroil-in-placeisfinite because the currentformation ratesareinfinitesimal.
In the nuclear or fissile resourcesthere isafinite amountofradioactive material
in the earth and when used in current reactors the fuel may be considered as
non-renewable; when used inbreederreactors theenergycontentissoexpanded
that the energysourcebecomes,ineffect,a renewable source.
Resources: The total amount of the resource base which is estimated to be
probably recoverable for the benefit ofman.Thisestimatewill be based onboth
knowledge and reasonable conjecture regarding location and probable recovery
techniquesbut is avery imprecise term.
Reserves: The total amount ofthe resource which can be defined as recoverable
in stated terms of economic and operational feasibility. Whenever possible the
degree offeasibility willbegiven byqualifying the term 'reserves' as:
Possible reserves: the amount about which geological knowledge is insuffi
cient to give any but the most vague recovery costing or indicate optimum
recovery method, yet is still within the range of possibility. This is again
imprecise and dependent onindividual opinion.
Probable reserves: the amount about which geological and engineering
knowledge is insufficient for an explicit statement that itcould be recovered
under current economic and operating conditions,but can be judged as be
coming economically recoverable with only a slight increase in knowledge
ofeitherthe deposit oroperatingtechniquesorboth.
2