Authoritarianism Goes Global This page intentionally left blank Authoritarianism Goes Global The Challenge to Democracy Edited by LARRY DIAMOND, MARC F. PLATTNER, and CHRISTOPHER WALKER Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore © 2016 Johns Hopkins University Press and The National Endowment for Democracy All rights reserved. Published 2016 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Johns Hopkins University Press 2715 North Charles Street Baltimore, Maryland 21218-4363 www.press.jhu.edu Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Diamond, Larry Jay, editor. | Plattner, Marc F., 1945– editor. | Walker, Christopher, 1964– editor. Title: Authoritarianism goes global : the challenge to democracy / edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, and Christopher Walker. Description: Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press, [2016] | Series: A journal of democracy book | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2015038214| ISBN 9781421419978 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781421419985 (electronic) | ISBN 1421419971 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 142141998X (electronic) Subjects: LCSH: Authoritarianism. | Democracy. Classification: LCC JC480 .A93 2016 | DDC 320.53—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015038214 A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Special discounts are available for bulk purchases of this book. For more information, please contact Special Sales at 410-516-6936 or [email protected]. Johns Hopkins University Press uses environmentally friendly book materials, including recycled text paper that is composed of at least 30 percent post-consumer waste, when- ever possible. contents Acknowledgments vii Introduction 3 Part One: The Authoritarian “Big Five” 1 China’s Challenge 23 Andrew J. Nathan 2 Forward to the Past in Russia 40 Lilia Shevtsova 3 Iran’s Paradoxical Regime 57 Abbas Milani 4 Iran Abroad 67 Alex Vatanka 5 Autocratic Legalism in Venezuela 78 Javier Corrales 6 Saudi Arabia’s Anxious Autocrats 96 Frederic Wehrey Part Two: Arenas of “Soft-Power” Competition 7 Countering Democratic Norms 117 Alexander Cooley 8 Election Monitoring vs. Disinformation 135 Patrick Merloe 9 The Leninist Roots of Civil Society Repression 152 Anne Applebaum 10 Civil Society Under Assault 160 Douglas Rutzen 11 The Kremlin’s Information War 174 Peter Pomerantsev 12 China’s Foreign Propaganda Machine 187 Anne-Marie Brady 13 Cyberspace Under Siege 198 Ron Deibert 14 Dealing with the Authoritarian Resurgence 216 Christopher Walker About the Authors 235 Index 239 Acknowledgments This volume emerged from a two-year initiative by the National En- dowment for Democracy’s International Forum for Democratic Studies examining the phenomenon of resurgent authoritarianism. This project was organized around a series of roundtables addressing various aspects of the broader subject, but also featured a number of larger public presentations. We extend our deepest gratitude to the participants who played a key role in these discussions. In addition to those who contributed to this book, these included Bernard Haykel, Steven Heydemann, Karen Elliott House, Judith Kelley, Thomas O. Melia, Christopher Sabatini, Jean-François Seznec, and Jan Surotchak. We also wish to express our thanks to the Smith Richardson Foundation (SRF), which provided critical financial support for this project. We are especially grateful to Nadia Schadlow, SRF senior program officer, Interna- tional Security and Foreign Policy, for her advice and cooperation. Christopher Walker, executive director of the International Forum, has been the driving force behind this project, championing the idea since he first proposed it in 2014. Given our own long history as coeditors of both theJournal of Democracy and numerous Journal of Democracy books pub- lished by Johns Hopkins University Press, we soon saw the potential that this initiative had for generating articles for the Journal and for eventually culminating in an edited volume. In fact, we published all fourteen of the chapters in this book as essays in the Journal between January 2015 and January 2016. Once we made the decision to aim at producing a book on this subject, we immediately thought of asking Chris to join us as a coeditor. Not only had he led the Forum’s comprehensive study of resurgent authoritarianism, but he also was instrumental in providing advice as we set about commis- sioning articles on this subject. We are delighted that he accepted our invita- tion to serve as a coeditor, playing a central role in drafting the introduction and also contributing an excellent concluding essay. vii In addition, we are indebted to our colleagues at Johns Hopkins Uni- versity Press. Editorial director Greg Britton provided valuable assistance and encouragement in the preparation of this volume, and managing editor Juliana McCarthy, also of the Books Division, helped with the production process. It has also been a pleasure to work once again with Bill Breichner, Carol Hamblen, and Angela Taylor of the Journals Division. Most of all, however, we thank the members of the Journal of Democ- racy staff for their indispensable contributions to the preparation of this volume. As always, the essays that follow benefited from the remarkable editorial efforts of executive editor Phil Costopoulos and senior editor Tra- cy Brown. Managing editor Brent Kallmer brilliantly met the myriad layout and production challenges of this volume, and assistant editor Hilary Col- lins provided substantial assistance in drafting the introduction and manag- ing the editorial correspondence during the volume’s planning and produc- tion phases. And we cannot conclude without expressing our appreciation to the National Endowment for Democracy’s President Carl Gershman and the Board of Directors for the longstanding support that they have provid- ed to the International Forum for Democratic Studies and the Journal of Democracy. —Marc F. Plattner and Larry Diamond viii Authoritarianism Goes Global