Authoritarian Elections and Opposition Groups in the Arab World

204 Pages·2019·1.889 MB·English

by  Gail J. Buttorff

AUTHORITARIAN
ELECTIONS AND
OPPOSITION GROUPS
IN THE ARAB WORLD
GAIL J. BUTTORFF
Authoritarian Elections and Opposition Groups
in the Arab World
Gail J. Buttorff
Authoritarian
Elections and
Opposition Groups
in the Arab World
Gail J. Buttorff
Hobby School of Public Affairs
University of Houston
Houston, TX, USA
ISBN 978-3-319-92185-3 ISBN 978-3-319-92186-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92186-0
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018957206
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For my dad
A
cknowledgments
As in the case of so many projects, the number of people to whom I am
grateful has increased with the time I have spent working on this book. So
let me start at the beginning. I am grateful to my dissertation commit-
tee—Douglas Dion, Frederick Boehmke, Jae-Jae Spoon, Ellen Lust, and
Raymond Riezman—for their willingness to serve on my committee, hear
repeated presentations, read drafts, and shepherd this project through
its early stages. My advisor, Doug Dion, has been a constant source of sup-
port during graduate school and after, and this book would certainly not
have been possible without him. His willingness to spend countless hours
working through models, proofs, and ideas undoubtedly made me a better
scholar. I am grateful for his mentorship and, above all, his friendship.
In Jordan, I am incredibly thankful to the staff and fellow residents of
ACOR in Amman for their generous support throughout my graduate
studies and after. I owe special thanks to Dr. Barbara Porter for her assis-
tance in helping an inexperienced researcher get off the ground and run-
ning. I am grateful to Mohammad Al-Momani for all his help, to Samya
for her time and willingness to call members of the IAF to schedule inter-
views when my Arabic was not so good, and to Samar for transcribing
seemingly endless interview transcripts. Thank you to Saleh and Murad
who made my trips to parliament more enjoyable and productive. I also
owe thanks to the efforts of three wonderful research assistants in Amman:
Mariam, Helen, and Bayan. Even though I was only able to dip my toe in
Algeria because of constant visa struggles, I sincerely appreciate the assis-
tance I received from Guillaume and the Centre d’Études Diocésain in
Algiers. Most of the research for the Algerian case study was conducted in
vii
viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Paris and I am grateful to the Algerian Cultural Center in Paris for making
this research far easier. I would also like to extend my gratitude to all those
interviewed throughout the course of this project in Jordan, France,
Yemen, Algeria, and the United States. Their insights, comments, and
advice were invaluable at all stages.
Over the years, so many gracious colleagues offered their moral and
professional support, read drafts, and provided invaluable insights for
which I am incredibly grateful. Among them are Becky Morton, Hannah
Britton, Christina Bejarano, Rahma Abdulkadir, Marwa Shalaby, Bozena
Welborne, Sean Yom, Sarah Tobin, Jae-Jae Spoon, Frederick Boehmke,
Kelly Kadera, Brian Lai, Nazli Avdan, Robert Rohrschneider, Don Haider-
Markel, Heath Spong, Michael Herb, and Amaney Jamal. Thanks also to
Marc Lynch and fellow participants at the POMEPS Junior Scholars Book
Workshop for their insights and advice. I am especially indebted to Emily
Beaulieu and Ellen Lust for graciously agreeing to read the entire manu-
script and provide their indispensible feedback. I also owe huge thanks
to Jim Granato who gave me the encouragement and time to finally
finish the book.
My field research in various countries would not have been possible with-
out the generous financial support from the ACOR-CAORC Research
Fellowship, the National Science Foundation, the University of Iowa’s
T. Anne Clearly International Dissertation Fellowship, New York University
Abu Dhabi, and the University of Kansas. I would also like to thank the
editorial team at Palgrave for their patience and support during the comple-
tion of the manuscript and throughout the production process.
I am remarkably lucky to have many wonderful friends and family near
and far that have supported me in so many ways throughout this process.
I owe a huge debt of gratitude to the family and friends who were willing
to read drafts and edit chapters—Heath, Christy, Doug, Jessica, Boz,
Hannah, Christina—I could not have done this without your love and
support throughout the years. I am particularly indebted to my dear friend
Jessica Lee whose unrivaled editing skills improved the manuscript and my
sanity immeasurably. I am also grateful to Paul for his support, his
Jordanian pep talks, and especially for believing in me and this project.
Finally, to my mom, who has always encouraged me in her own way
and showed me what it was to be a true lifelong learner. To Christy, Doug,
and Sophie, who always push me to “do better.” Your love and friendship
has gotten me through so much; I know how lucky I am to have three of
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix
the best and most smartest siblings anyone could ask for. And to my father,
who provided me with the support and opportunities to pursue higher
education and expertise in Middle East politics, though I am sure he still
wishes I had chosen a different field. He passed on to me a love of learning
all subjects through school, books, and travel, and I am forever grateful.
c
ontents
1 The Strategic Dilemma of Authoritarian Elections 1
1.1 Electoral Authoritarianism in the Arab World 2
1.2 E xisting Explanations and Their Limitations 5
1.3 T he Argument 7
1.4 C ases and Methods 10
1.5 P lan of the Book 13
References 15
2 Explaining Election Boycotts 19
2.1 E lections and Boycotts in the Arab World 20
2.2 Electoral Prospects 23
2.3 Unfair Elections 24
2.4 Electoral Rules 29
2.5 Conclusion 32
Appendix 32
References 37
3 P articipation, Boycott, and Protest in Authoritarian
Elections 39
3.1 T he Electoral Authoritarian Context: Strategies, Information,
and Ideology 40
3.2 The Decision to Participate 44
3.3 The Decision to Boycott 45
3.4 The Government’s Choice: Reform or Ignore 47
xi
xii CONTENTS
3.5 The Opposition’s Decision: Protest or Back Down 48
3.6 Conclusion 50
References 54
4 Centers of Power, Regime Strength, and Opposition
Beliefs 57
4.1 Defining Centers of Power 58
4.2 Identification Strategy 62
4.3 Centers of Power in the Arab World 64
4.4 Centers of Power in Jordan and Algeria 70
4.5 Conclusion 80
References 86
5 T he Islamic Action Front: Between Participation and
Boycotts 91
5.1 P olitical Liberalization and the Return of Electoral Politics 92
5.2 P articipation in the 1993 Election 95
5.3 The Boycott of 1997 98
5.4 B ack to Participation: The Elections of 2003 and 2007 1 06
5.5 The Boycott of 2010 112
5.6 Conclusion 119
References 126
6 Opposition Boycotts in Algeria 129
6.1 T he First Multiparty Elections and Interrupted Political
Liberalization 130
6.2 The Opposition Boycotts: The 1999 Presidential and 2002
Legislative Elections 134
6.3 The 2004 and 2007 Elections: Diverging Opposition
Strategies 151
6.4 Conclusion 164
References 175
7 Conclusion 177
7.1 Policy Implications for Contentious Elections 180
7.2 Centers of Power and the Arab Spring 181
References 185
Index 187