Asymmetric Demography and the Global Economy: Growth Opportunities and Macroeconomic Challenges in an Ageing World

300 Pages·2015·3.209 MB·English

by  José María Fanelli (eds.)

Asymmetric Demography and
the Global Economy
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Asymmetric Demography and
the Global Economy
Growth Opportunities and Macroeconomic
Challenges in an Ageing World
Edited by
José María Fanelli
ASYMMETRIC DEMOGRAPHY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Copyright © José María Fanelli, 2015.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-48645-5
All rights reserved.
First published in 2015 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN®
in the United States— a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world,
this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills,
Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
and has companies and representatives throughout the world.
Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-50386-5 ISBN 978-1-137-48143-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137481436
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Asymmetric demography and the global economy : growth opportunities and
macroeconomic challenges in an ageing world / edited by Jose María Fanelli.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Demographic transition—Economic aspects. 2. Population aging—
Economic aspects. 3. Economic development. 4. Economic development—
Developing countries. 5. International finance. 6. International economic
relations. I. Fanelli, José María.
HB887.A89 2014
338.9—dc23 2014034135
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Design by Newgen Knowledge Works (P) Ltd., Chennai, India.
First edition: March 2015
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To Ana, Paula, and Sebastian
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Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables xiii
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction: The Project, the Results, and Policy Implications 1
José María Fanelli
Part I The Demographic Transition and
the Macroeconomy: Setting the Stage
1 Demographic Asymmetries and the Global Macroeconomy 21
José María Fanelli and Ramiro Albrieu
2 Demography and the Macroeconomy: A Methodological
Framework 53
José María Fanelli
Part II Demographic Asymmetries and
the Global System
3 On the Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of
the Demographic Transition 85
José María Fanelli and Ramiro Albrieu
4 Demography, Economic Growth, and Capital Flows 107
Richard N. Cooper
5 Emerging Economies and the Reform of the Global
Monetary System 127
José Antonio Ocampo
Part III On Challenges and Opportunities for
Emerging Economies
6 Macroeconomic Effects of the Demographic Transition in Brazil 151
Ricardo D. Brito and Carlos Carvalho
viii CONTENTS
7 China’s Premature Demographic Transition in
Government-Engineered Growth: Macroeconomic
Insights and Policy Implications 187
Harry X. Wu, Yang Du, and Fang Cai
8 A Study of Demographic and Financial Changes in India 213
Pranab Kumar Das and Saibal Kar
9 Demographic Transition, Growth, and Wealth in South Africa 243
Melvin D. Ayogu and Olumide Taiwo
Bibliography 269
List of Contributors 285
Index 287
Figures
1.1 G lobal demographic dynamics, 1990–2030
(Share in total population) 23
1.2 Varieties of experiences in population ageing
(Share of the working-age population in total population) 24
1.3 Saving and investment rates in G-20 countries 26
1.4 Savings rate and median age, c. 2010 27
1.5 NTA age profiles, Japan 2004 28
1.6 Working-age/primer savers and old-age/prime savers ratios
(as a share of prime savers population) 29
1.7 The changing pattern of global growth 32
1.8 The demographic dividends 35
1.9 Growth dynamics and demography in G-20 countries 38
1.10 Capital flows in G-20 countries 40
1.11 Changing patterns in global savings and investment 41
1.12 Evolution of current accounts (% G-20 GDP) 42
1.13 Contribution to global finance (external balance sheets) 43
1.14 Structural change in Japan 44
1.15 Japan: savings and investment rates (five-year averages) 44
1.16 Japan: net capital flows and the external balance sheet 45
1.17 Required change in domestic financial deepening 47
3.1 Age profiles: consumption, labor income, and life-cycle deficit
(as % of base year’s per capita GDP) 88
3.2 Support ratio, labor share, propensity to consume in
key emerging economies 91
3.3 The demographic window of opportunity, SR, and
per capita GDP in PPP dollars 93
3.4 Evolution of demographically driven per capita labor income,
consumption, and savings 94
3.5 Per capita consumption rate and the effects of
demographic factors 96
3.6 The LCD/GDP and S/GDP ratios over the demographic
t t t t
transition 98
3.7 Fiscal support ratio, benefits, and taxes (as % of GDP,
unless otherwise specified) 100
3.8 Contribution of different cohort groups to total primary
deficit (as % of GDP) 101