assessment of the adequacy of land supply at lara

29 Pages·2012·0.81 MB·English

ASSESSMENT OF THE ADEQUACY OF LAND SUPPLY AT
LARA

Report prepared on behalf of:
LARA LAKES PROJECT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

June 2012
Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION 2

2 LARA: REGIONAL CONTEXT 3

3 DEVELOPMENT AREA AND PLANNING CONTEXT 6

4 POPULATION GROWTH 9

5 DWELLING DEMAND 12

6 LAND SUPPLY 20

7 ADEQUACY OF LAND SUPPLY 25

8 CONCLUSION 28

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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
1 INTRODUCTION
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Background and purpose

1.1 This report considers the adequacy of land supply at Lara. It has been prepared as a background
report for a rezoning request on behalf of Messrs Wilkes, Spalding, Cullen and Rees, owners of
land within the area bounded by Windermere, O’Halloran’s, Patullos and Bacchus Marsh Roads.
This area is identified on the Lara Structure Plan as “Future Residential”.

Approach and reports reviewed

1.2 In preparing this report the following approach has been undertaken:

♠ Review of relevant Council and other information with particular regard to Section 21.13 of the
Greater Geelong Planning Scheme which deals with the Lara township;

♠ Review of the Panel report pertaining to Amendment C198 which considered and made
recommendations relating to the Lara Structure Plan;

♠ Review of the Lara Structure Plan (2009);

♠ Consideration of recent population growth in Lara and Greater Geelong and the future outlook
for population growth;

♠ Translation of population growth to dwelling demand;

♠ Review of the current status of land supply at Lara;

♠ Consideration of additional matters relevant to the efficient and orderly management of
residential land supply and the maintenance of a competitive housing market.

Reports reviewed

1.3 In preparing this report the following documents, reports and materials have been considered and
taken into account:

♠ Greater Geelong Planning Scheme
♠ Lara Structure Plan (2009), Greater Geelong City Council
♠ Amendment C73 and C198 Panel Report (August 2010)
♠ Greater Geelong City Council Agenda (12 April 2011)
♠ Urban Development Program (2009), Department of Planning and Community
Development
♠ 2006 Census Data, Australian Bureau of Statistics
♠ Victoria in Future (2008) and Victoria In Future (2012), Department of Planning and
Community Development
♠ Greater Geelong Economic Indicators (2010/11)

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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
2 LARA: REGIONAL CONTEXT
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Background

2.1 Lara is a satellite township located approximately 15 kilometres north of Geelong.

Statistical Classification

2.2 The City of Greater Geelong comprises the urban area of Geelong, the Bellarine Peninsula (with
the exception of the Borough of Queenscliff) and a relatively significant rural area to the north of the
primary urban area. The municipality is illustrated in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: City of Greater Geelong

Source: ABS

2.3 The primary urban area of Geelong can be defined by what is called the Geelong Statistical
District. This area includes the primary urban area of Geelong as well as Leopold to the east and
Lara to the north. It excludes the coastal townships on the Bellarine Peninsula such as Drysdale,
Clifton Springs, Portarlington, Ocean Grove and Barwon Heads as well as the rural area north of
Lara.

2.4 In this report, any references to population growth and dwelling demand relating to Geelong refers
to the primary urban area (or Statistical District) unless otherwise stated. This approach is adopted
because demand for housing and land in the primary urban area represents a relatively
conventional market in contrast to the settlements on the Bellarine Peninsula where there is a high
proportion of holiday housing.

2.5 The area of the Geelong Statistical District is represented in Figure 2 following.

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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
Figure 2: Geelong Statistical District

Source: ABS

2.6 The Geelong Statistical District comprises 6 Statistical Local Areas (SLA’s) which are smaller areas
for which data and statistics are collected. A SLA is the smallest area for which inter-census data is
reported and represents the basic unit for which State Government population and dwelling
projections are carried out. Lara is located in the Corio-Inner SLA (Figure 3)

Figure 3: Corio-Inner SLA

Source: ABS

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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
2.7 The Corio-Inner SLA includes the suburbs of Lara, Corio, Norlane, North Shore, North Geelong,
Hamlyn Heights, Bell Post Hill and the semi-rural areas of Batesford, Lovely Banks and Moorbool.
In terms of urban Geelong it is bounded in the south by Victoria Street, Church Street, McCurdy
Road and the Barwon River.

2.8 Figure 4 illustrates the boundary of the Urban Locality of Lara which embraces the core urban area
of Lara. The Lara Urban Locality represents the statistical classification that is used for
demographic analysis in this report.

Figure 4: Lara

Source: ABS

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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
3 DEVELOPMENT AREA AND PLANNING CONTEXT
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Proposed Development Area

3.1 The area of interest relates to the land bounded by Windermere, O’Halloran’s, Patullos and
Bacchus Marsh Roads. The area has been identified by various attributions in the past. For the
purposes of this report the potential development area is referred to as ‘Lara West’.

Figure 5: Proposed Development Area

Source: Google Earth Pro (created by Spade Consultants, March 2012)

Planning context

3.2 The proposed development area is presently in the Farming Zone with the exception of a small
strip along Patullos road in the south-east corner which is in the Rural Living Zone.

State Planning Policy Framework

Clause 11.02-1 of the Greater Geelong Planning Scheme relates to ‘Supply of Urban Land’ with an
objective to, “ensure a sufficient supply of land is available for residential, commercial, retail,
industrial, recreational, institutional and other community uses”. Strategies outlined to meet this
objective include:

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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
 Ensure the ongoing provision of land and supporting infrastructure to support sustainable
urban development.

 Ensure that sufficient land is available to meet forecast demand.

 Plan to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide
clear direction on locations where growth should occur. Residential land supply will be
considered on a municipal basis, rather than a town-by-town basis.

3.3 The following comments relate to these strategies:

♠ State Policy refers to the consideration of land supply at a municipal level. There is some
degree of ambiguity as to how to interpret the adequacy of land supply at a local level
against the needs of the municipality. The need for discrete assessments on a centre by
centre basis is particularly relevant in some regional and rural areas where the particulars
of demand and supply may vary significantly between urban centres and, in many
instances, a measure of the adequacy of land supply is in fact undertaken against a
particular urban centre rather than at a municipal level; and

♠ The strategy calls for at least a 15 year supply of land to meet expected demand. The fact
the benchmark is cited as a minimum is frequently overlooked in strategic planning
documents.

Local Planning Policy Framework

3.4 The nature and direction of growth at Lara is dealt with at Clause 21.13 of the Greater Geelong
Planning Scheme where it is noted that the township has been identified for urban growth.

21.13-1 Key issues and influences
Lara is a township designated for urban growth and is strategically located between
Geelong and Melbourne with excellent road, rail, seaport and airport links.

21.13-2 Objectives
 To maintain a compact urban form and provide for sustainable communities.
 To ensure an adequate supply of appropriately zoned and located residential and
commercial land.

3.5 Under ‘Strategies’ it is noted that urban development should be contained within a defined urban
settlement boundary until such time that a review of lot supply indicates the rezoning of land
identified as ‘Future Residential’ will be required to continue to achieve land supply sufficient for at
least 15 years.

Strategies
 Contain urban development within the defined settlement boundary in accordance with
the Structure Plan map included in this clause.

 Support the development of areas identified for rezoning to Residential 1 and Low
Density Residential in accordance with the Structure Plan map included in this clause.

 Support the rezoning of ‘future residential’ areas when a review of lot supply indicates
rezoning is necessary to continue to achieve at least 15 years lot supply taking into
consideration any infill opportunities that will not be realised in the short term.
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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012

3.6 The direction of growth expressed in Clause 21.13 is informed by the report of the independent
Panel which considered Amendment C198 (the review of the Lara Structure Plan). Clause 21.13
reflects the Panel’s views on the future growth of Lara. The Lara Structure Plan Map as included in
Clause 21.13 is provided at Figure 6.

Figure 6: The Structure Plan Map

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Land supply and demand assessment (Lara)
Report prepared by Spade Consultants
June 2012
4 POPULATION GROWTH
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This section of the report provides an overview of recent population growth in both Lara and Geelong and
considers official growth projections in the context of recent growth.

Recent and projected growth in Geelong

4.1 During the five year period to 30 June 2006 the population of Greater Geelong grew by 11,000
persons (2,242 per annum at an average rate of 1.13% per annum). Population growth in Geelong
Statistical District over the same period was slightly lower at 1.01%. This rate of growth is
comparable, and perhaps a little below, Victoria’s other principal regional urban areas including
Ballarat (1.1%) and Bendigo (1.3%).

4.2 In the five years since the 2006 National Census, population growth is estimated by the Australian
Bureau of Statistics (“ABS”) to have accelerated with the Geelong Statistical District averaging
1.5% per annum between 2006 and 2011. A similar spike in population growth has been observed
across much of Australia.

4.3 The State Government released updated population projections in April 2012. The Victoria In
Future projections (VIF 2012) are based on the 2011 ABS estimate of population. VIF 2012
replaces VIF 2008 which, in light of higher than expected net overseas migration figures is thought
to have under-estimated population growth.

4.4 VIF 2012 anticipates ongoing growth in the Geelong Statistical District with the population expected
to grow from 180,802 in 2011 to 231,087 in 2026 (an increase of 50,285) and a population in 2031
of 248,608. This represents a significant upward revision on the projected population contained in
the earlier projection series VIF 2008 (216,971 in 2026). Like most projection series VIF 2008
assumes that growth will slow in the coming decades due to the ageing of the population.

4.5 As noted, recent population growth has been relatively high and, while there has been a recent
debate about the extent of future growth at a national level, it is likely that growth will continue to be
driven by net overseas migration levels in the order of 180,000 per annum. The result will be that
population growth will remain steady to high in the medium term (10-15 years).

4.6 Figure 7 outlines the VIF 2012 projections for the Geelong Statistical District and each of the six
SLAs within it.

4.7 The VIF 2012 projections estimate growth in the Geelong Statistical District between 2011 and
2031 of between around 1.5% and 1.75%. The most significant growth is projected to occur in the
South Barwon - Inner SLA which includes the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area. Significant
growth is also projected to occur in Corio – Inner SLA which includes Lara and the Bellarine Inner
SLA which includes Leopold.

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