Assessment of drought and water availability for crop production in the Rio Grande Basin

84 Pages·2002·3.3 MB·English

by  United States. Department of Agriculture. Office of the Chief Economists

Historic, Archive Document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.
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United States
Department of
Agriculture
National Agricultural Library
ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT
AND WATER
AVAILABILITY
FOR CROP PRODUCTION
IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN
As requested by Conference Report 107-275
U.S.D.A., NAL
April 2002 2 6 2002
Cataloging Prep
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Office of the Chief Economist

ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT AND WATER AVAILABILITY FOR
CROP PRODUCTION IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN
As requestedby ConferenceReport 107-275
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Inthe Conference Report, which accompanied Public Law 107-76, the Agriculture, Rural Development,
Food and Dmg Administration, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act 2002, conferees raised concerns
with respectto continuing severe drought along the United States/Mexico borderinthe areas ofthe Rio
Grande Basin and Mexico’s continuing failure to meet its water obligations to the area as delineated inthe
1944 Water Treaty. Conference Report 107-275 requested that the Secretary ofAgriculture provide a
report to the Committees onAppropriations ofthe House and Senate by March 1, 2002, detailing the value
ofthe annual loss ofU.S. agricultural production resulting fromthis deficit andthe Department’s authorities
andplans to assist agricultural interests inthe Rio Grande watershedwiththe financial ramifications of
Mexico’s water debt. H.R. Conf Rep. 107-275, at 48-49 (2001).
Water Supply and Use in the Rio Grande Basin
This report covers the Texas counties ofCameron, Hidalgo, Starr, andWillacythat lie inthe lower Rio
Grande Basin. The Rio Grande Basin is highly dependent on surface waterto supply its waterneeds.
Based on 1995 data (the most recent available), surface water accounted for 98 percent ofall water
withdrawals. Irrigation accounted for 92 percent ofsurface withdrawals and 93 percent oftotal
consumptive use.
The 1944 Water Treaty between the U.S. and Mexico contains provisions whereby Mexico is requiredto
provide the United States with a rninimum of350,000 acre-feet ofwaterperyear, averaged in five-year
cycles. Atthe conclusion ofthe five-year cycle ending on October2, 1997, Mexico owed the United
States about 1.025 million acre-feet ofwater. By early 2002, although Mexico hadtransferred some water
from the international reservoirs since February 2000, Mexico’s accumulatedwater debt fromboththe
1992-97 cycle and the 1997-2002 cycle had grownto approximately 1.5 million acre-feet.
An extended drought since 1993 onboththe U.S. and Mexican sides ofthe Rio Grande has combinedwith
the reduced Mexican inflows to dirninish available water supphes inthe main reservoirs, the Amistad and
Falcon. Rio Grande waterusers are concerned about Mexico’s ability to reduce these deficits, which have
a direct impact onwateravailability inthe region. Forexample, according to the Rio Grande Watermaster,
irrigable land in2002 forboth Cameron and Hidalgo counties likelywiU be reducedby approximately
103,000 acres, a drop of29 percent from 1992, due inpart to water shortages.
Crop Production in the Rio Grande Basin
Conference Report 107-275 requests the United States Department ofAgriculture (USDA) estimate the
value ofthe annual loss ofU.S. agricultural productiondue to the deficit in Mexicanwaterdeliveries.
USDA
is unable to quantify such losses for several reasons. First, the waterdeficit in Mexican deliveries
could notbe related to the annual surface waterwithdrawals by agricultural irrigators due to lack ofdata.
Second, data on acreage planted to all crops, irrigated and dryland, is incomplete. Third, there are
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numerous confounding factors thathave affectedplanted area inthe region duringthe period ofdeficit
deliveries. These factors include insect losses; devastating freezes affecting citrus; low crop prices,
particularly followingthe runup inmajor crop prices inthe mid - 1990's; rising farmproduction costs,
especially inthe mid - 1990's and in 2000 and 2001 due to high energy costs; economic development and
competinguses forland; competition from horticultural imports from Mexico and other countries; and
concerns overpesticide use and regulations. Reductions inproduction ofone crop may also be offsetby
producers shifting to other crops. USDA does nothave county-level econometric models that are able to
decompose all ofthese factors into their individual contributions to changes inthe value ofcrop production
inthe Rio Grande Basin.
An assessment ofthe available data suggests that insufficientwaterlikelyplayed an importantrole in
cropping choices ofRio Grande Basinproducers. Although definitive conclusions are notpossible given
the data limitations andthe many confounding factors, several indicators suggestwaterdelivery deficits may
have hadtheirmostpronounced effect during the late 1990's. During this period, the datareviewed
indicate that, except for 1997, annual average precipitationwas well below normal; water inflows to the Rio
Grande above the Amistad and Falconreservoirs were unusually low, especially onthe Mexican side;
water storage levels inthe Amistad and Falconreservoirs hitthe lowest levels inthree decades beginning in
1995 and continuing throughthe currentperiod; and water application rates as measured in acre-feet of
irrigationwater appliedper acre fell to levels well below the average ofthe firsthalfofthe 1990's.
Coinciding withthese atypical meteorological andhydrological events, the cumulative deficit ofMexican
waterdeliveries rose from 0.5 million acre-feet atthe end of 1995 to 1.4 million acre-feetbythe end of
1999. Harvested acreage offield crops forwhich data are available (cotton, sorghum, com and sugarcane)
in the Rio Grande Basin fell sharply during the 1996-99 period, comparedwith earlierperiods, butthen
beganto rise toward earlier levels in 2000. Therefore, focusing onthe 1996-1999 period, total harvested
acreage offield crops inthe Rio Grande Basin averaged 616,000 acres, down 15 percent fromthe
728.000 acres averaged during 1990-95. Irrigated acreage in the Rio Grande Basin fell 17 percent to
208.000 from 251,000. Based on the Texas state season-average farmprices forthe field crops during
1996-99, the annual average value ofthe decline inproduction offield crops during 1996-99 compared
with 1990-95 was $34 million. Lack ofdataprevents development ofloss estimates for other crops.
USDA Authorities and Assistance to the Rio Grande Valley
USDA
has abroadrange ofauthorities vested in different agencies that are usedto respond to natural
disasters, including drought. This response capabihty includes technical and financial assistance,
consultation and analysis, technologytransfers, and landscape restoration. These ftmctions reside primarily
inthe Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), the RiskManagementAgency (RMA), andthe
Farm Service Agency (FSA).
USDA
has been actively engaged inthe Rio Grande Basinthrough its emergency and disasterprograms, as
well as with ongoing commodity supportprograms. USDA programs have contributed about $100 million
annually between 1999-2001 forthe fourTexas counties. Programs such as the Wetlands Reserve
Program and the Conservation Reserve Program have combined to take over 100,000 acres ofland out of
production forenvironmental and conservationpurposes.
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