Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Cost-efficient Methods and Applications Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Methods and Applications in Eastern European and Developing C PDF
Preview Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Cost-efficient Methods and Applications Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Methods and Applications in Eastern European and Developing C
Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks NATO Science Series ASeriespresentingtheresultsofscientificmeetingssupportedundertheNATOScience Programme. TheSeriesispublishedbylOSPress,Amsterdam,andKluwerAcademicPublishersinconjunction withtheNATOScientificAffairsDivision Sub-Series I. LifeandBehaviouralSciences lOSPress II. Mathematics,PhysicsandChemistry KluwerAcademicPublishers III.ComputerandSystemsScience lOSPress IV.EarthandEnvironmentalSciences KluwerAcademicPublishers TheNATOScienceSeriescontinuestheseriesofbookspublishedformerlyastheNATOASISeries. The NATO Science Programme offerssupport forcollaboration in civil science between scientistsof countriesoftheEuro-AtlanticPartnershipCouncil.Thetypesofscientificmeetinggenerallysupported are"AdvancedStudyInstitutes"and"Advanced ResearchWorkshops",andtheNATOScienceSeries collectstogethertheresultsofthesemeetings.Themeetingsareco-organizedbijscientistsfromNATO countriesandscientistsfromNATO'sPartnercountries- countriesoftheCISandCentralandEastern Europe. AdvancedStudyInstitutesarehigh-leveltutorialcoursesofferingin-depthstudyoflatestadvancesin afield. AdvancedResearchWorkshopsareexpertmeetingsaimedatcriticalassessmentofafield,andiden tificationofdirectionsforfutureaction. As aconsequence ofthe restructuring ofthe NATOScience Programmein 1999,the NATOScience Serieswasre-organizedtothefoursub-seriesnotedabove.Pleaseconsultthefollowingwebsitesfor informationonpreviousvolumespublishedintheSeries. http://www.nato.inVscience http://www.wkap.nl http://www.iospress.nl http://www.wtv-books.de/nato_pco.htm SeriesIV:EarthandEnvironmentalSeries- Vol.4 Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks Cost-efficient Methods and Applications editedby Igor Linkov ArthurD.Little, Inc., Cambridge,Massachusetts,U.S.A.and Menzie-Cura&Associates, Inc.,U.S.A. and Jose Palma-Oliveira UniversityofLisbon,Portugal Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht / Boston / London PublishedincooperationwithNATOScientificAffairsDivision Proceedingsofthe NATOAdvanced ResearchWorkshopon Assessmentand ManagementofEnvironmental Risks: MethodsandApplicationsin Eastern EuropeanandDevelopingCountries Lisbon, Portugal October1-4,2000 AC.I.P.CataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. ISBN 1-4020-0024-3(HB) ISBN 1-4020-0025-1 (PB) PublishedbyKluwerAcademicPublishers, P.O.Box17,3300AA Dordrecht,TheNetherlands. SoldanddistributedinNorth, CentralandSouthAmerica byKluwerAcademicPublishers, 101 PhilipDrive, Norwell,MA02061, U.S.A. Inallothercountries,soldanddistributed byKluwerAcademicPublishers, P.O.Box322,3300AH Dordrecht,TheNetherlands. Printedonacid-freepaper AllRightsReserved ©2001 KluwerAcademicPublishers Nopartofthematerialprotectedbythiscopyrightnoticemaybereproducedorutilizedin anyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical, includingphotocopying, recordingor by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyrightowner. TABLEOFCONTENTS Preface xi Acknowledgements xv Introduction DevelopmentsandTrendsinEcologicalRiskAssessment 3 G. W. SuterII HowMuch isTooMuch? ThoughtsabouttheUseofRiskAssessmentfor II CountriesinTransitionand theDevelopingWorld R.G. Bell, J. Wilson ApplicationofRisk AssessmentinDifferentCountries 17 I Clarkson, S. Glaser, M. Kierski, T. Thomas, I Gaccetta, C. Campbell, C. Orton, M. Wright, G.Longoni, A.Kwok Part1. Methodsand ToolsforAssessmentandManagementof EnvironmentalRisks StreamliningtheRisk AssessmentProcess: Integrationof 31 GenericCriteriaandSite-SpecificRisk Assessment c.L. Gaudet, JR. McCann, K.I. Adare, G.E. Nason DerivationofAquaticToxicityValues inSupportofGroundwaterCriteria 41 DevelopmentforTrichlorofluoromethaneandDichlorodifluoromethane H. Hristov, D. Manca EcotoxicityofRiverandSpringSedimentAlongtheHanfordReach 49 D.A. Delistraty, J. Yokel DeterminationofPrimaryand SecondaryResponses to Environmental Stressors 57 andBiotaHealth v.M. Bresler, L. Fishelson, A. Abelson RiskAssessmentfor BiologicalStressors 71 M.R. Powell EndocrineDisruptorsandRisk Assessment 85 IJ. AmaralMendes, C. Travis, N. Olea VI ChernobylForests:Riskfrom WoodCombustion 93 A.I. Grebenkov, V. V. Rymkevich, A. A. Andrizhijevski, V. G. Goulo AFrameworktoSupportInsurersonthe AssessmentofPollutionRisks 107 A.Salgueiro, P. Antunes, R. Santos, S. Martinho, G. Suter IntegratedRisk AssessmentofChemicalMixtures 115 M. MacDonell AComparativeRiskAssessmentMethodologyfor PrioritizingRisk 121 ManagementPolicyInitiatives: RankingofIndustrial WasteStreamsinPortugal JA. Shatkin. C.A. Patton. JM. Palma-Oliveira Methods andToolsfor AssessmentandManagementofEnvironmental Risks 143 (ReportoftheWorkingGrouponEnvironmentalRisk AssessmentMethodsand Tools) M. MacDonell, I. Holoubek Part2.EnvironmentalRiskAssessment: Modelingand Uncertainty ArmyRisk AssessmentModelingSystem(ARAMS) 155 M. S. Dortch ApplicationoftheQUAL2EWaterQualityModel for UntreatedDischargeRisk 163 AssessmentinCentral andEasternEurope IS. Iaworska, P. Masscheleyn, D.C. Mcavoy ChemicalRiskAssessmentBasedonthe FrameworkofBasin-Wide Ecological 173 Modelingandthe Eco-Toxicological Index A. Tokai. I Nakanishi ModelingPollutantDiffusionwithaStatistical CharacterizationofWind 187 Conditions O.Makarynskyy, D.Makarynska, A.A.Pires-Silva RiskAssessmentinUkraine: New ApproachesandStrategyofDevelopment 195 K. Atoyev UncertaintyinEnvironmentalRiskAssessment 203 (ReportoftheWorkingGrouponUncertainty Analysis) I. S. Iaworska, T. S. Bridges VII Part3.EnvironmentalPoliciesand RiskAssessment Environmental DecisionMakingInvolvingMultipleStakeholders 211 G. E. Apostolakis ExpertJudgmentResolution InTechnically-Intensive 221 PolicyDisputes L. J. Valverde, Jr. AFrameworkfor theAssessmentandManagementofRisks inEastern 239 EuropeanandDevelopingCountries L. Bucchini, D. E. Maher, D. M. Simonson EcologicalRiskPerception: The"LocalUniversal"? 247 JM. Palma-Oliveira TheDevelopmentand ApplicationofGuidelinesforEcologicalRisk 259 AssessmentinSouth Africa M. Claassen, WF. Strydom, K. Murray, S. Jooste S, CG. Palmer DevelopmentofaRiskBasedPolicyforContaminatedSitesoftheWalloon 267 Region, Belgium H. Halen, A. Lox, E. Maes, M. Moutier Risk Assessmentfor Agricultural Pollutants (Armenia): Modelling and Optimal 275 Control V. Sargsyan ProjectlORIS- EcologicalRisk Assessment- Regional Approaches 283 l. Holoubek, L. Dusek, M. Machala, K. Hilscherova, P. Cupr, K. Blaha IntegratingScienceandPolicyInEnvironmentalRiskManagement 299 (ReportofthePolicyWorkingGroup) 1. A. Shatkin, L. J. Valverde, Jr., V. Sagrsyan, L. Bucchini Part4.CaseStudiesinRiskAssessment USAIOViewsonEnvironmentalRisks 309 (AComparativeViewto EnvironmentalAssessments) CF. Maxwell Environmental IssuesandRiskAssessmentApproachesinDeveloping 313 Countries B. Raissouni Vlll OverviewoftheEgyptianRadiationMonitoringNetworkand Radioactivity 317 LevelsoftheEgyptianTerritories A.B. Ramadan, S. A. El-Mongy EnvironmentalRiskAssessmentfor IndustrialRegion inRussia 325 B.A.Korobitsin, V.N.Chukanov In VitroRetentionofRadionuclides bytheMyceliumofEdibleFungi: Basisfor 331 SubsequentRiskAssessment I. Druzhinina, W Kromp, M. Berreck, V. Karg Environmental Pollution Trends and Impact to the Forest State and Growth in 341 Lithuania R. Juknys Assessment of Environmental N0 Exposure Effect On First Myocardial 349 2 InfarctionRisk InKaunas,Lithuania R. Grazuleviciene, L. Jakucionyte, V. Malinauskiene DrinkingWaterContaminationbyNitrateandLowBirthWeightRisk inRural 357 Population L. Jakucionyte, R. Grazuleviciene, V. Rutkoviene The Usage ofBiomarkers in Some Environmental and Occupational Chemical 363 ExposureCases inTurkey A. E. Karakaya RiskAssessmentoftheTurkishStraits 373 E. Kose, E. Basar Risk Assessmentand EvaluationofMaterialsCommonlyUsed inDesalination 379 Plants K. Habib, A. Fakhral-Deen LimitationsandPerspectivesofRadioecological AssessmentForSoil-Plant 385 SystemsInGreece G. Arapis, I. Massas, V. Skarlou NuclearPowerPlantConflicts: ResponseStrategiesScenariosInRomaniaand 391 Bulgaria B. Constantinescu, R. Bugoi PredictionsofAircraftPollutantsfromExpandedFlight 397 OperationsAtEIToro,CA-APublicHealthIssue? WR. Schell IX WholeLifeCycleRiskManagement 401 T. DeLemos, LT. DeAlmeida Part5.PriorityAllocationinAreaofEcologicalRiskAssessment ExpertJudgementElicitationInRisk Assessment 411 LH.J. Goossens, R.M. Cooke PilotElicitationofExpertJudgmentsonPriorityAllocationin Areaof 427 EcologicalRisk Assessment 1. Linkov, K. Von Stackelberg, LH.J. Goossens ListofParticipants 433 AuthorIndex 439 PREFACE Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks againstthepotentialeffectsofimplementingenvironmental policies- considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop inLisbon was an importantstepin thedevelopmentand applicationofcostefficientmethodsofriskassessmentespeciaIly within theconstraints ofabudget. Thegoalofthe workshop was to evaluatethe potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop arange ofapproachesstarting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use ofrisk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, andsolutionstoourenvironmentalchaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarizethe positions ofDrs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use ofoften-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can bejustified, given evolvingregulatory institutionsand limitedresources. Duringtheirdebate inLisbon, a general agreement was reached that risks associated with environmental problems should be considered in the development of environmental policies, while the application of the specific methodologies (such as comparative risk assessment and probabilistictechniques) should becase-specific andconsiderbenefit-costfactors. Threetopicalchaptersofthebooksummarizeresults ofdiscussions in working groups and plenary sessions. Each chapter reviews achievements, identify gaps in current knowledge, and suggest priorities for future research in its topical area. Group reports written by group chairs and rapporteurs, present a number of consensus principlesand initiativesthatweresuggestedduringthegroupdiscussions. The fourth chapter iIlustrates the application of risk and environmental assessments in different countries. Many papers in this chapter cannot be classified strictlyasrisk assessments, butthey presentthe interpretationand perceptionofrisks by individual scientists as weIl as iIlustrate a wide variety of environmental problems in developingcountries. The book presents results of an individual expert elicitation exercise conducted according to a protocol developed by Igor Linkov and Louis Goossens in coIlaboration with Charles Menzie and Katherine von Stackelberg. Even though the primary objective of this elicitation was to educate participants on available decision- xi
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